Nowhere at Best – Wiped Out at Worst
by The Mogambo Guru
Florida – The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department
of Labor came out and confirmed what everybody already knew; people
are losing their jobs at a terrifying clip which makes me
wonder how long it will be before I get fired, too, and I wish that
I had more gold, silver, oil and armaments with which to ward off
those people who do NOT have gold, silver and oil, because they
are going to be angry, hungry and desperate, while although I will
be likewise angry as hell, I will not be hungry or desperate, but
gluttonous and rich, because I own some of the aforesaid gold, silver
and (pause for emphasis) oil.
did not actually say that, but they did say, Nonfarm payroll
employment continued to fall sharply in February (651,000),
and the unemployment rate rose from 7.6 to 8.1 percent which
means that another 0.5% of the people are, as I said, angry, desperate
and hungry, especially since it is that Girl Scout cookie time of
year and the things are $3.50 a box for a smaller box, and us unemployed-type
folks wonder, Where in the hell am I going to get $3.50 for
a box of cookies?
In fact, the
report says that payroll employment has declined by 2.6 million
jobs in the past four months, and over the past 12 months,
the number of unemployed persons has increased by about 5.0 million
and the unemployment rate has risen by 3.3 percentage points
which is Pretty Bad News (PBN), no matter how you slice it.
bad news is that In February, job losses were large and widespread
across nearly all major industry sectors which indicates an
entire economy in a death-spiral, the specifics of which are that
the number of unemployed persons increased by a whopping 851,000
in February, taking the total to 12.5 million unemployed!
I took a long,
long pull of tequila, straight from the bottle, before I had the
courage to look at the broadest measure of unemployment/slack in
the labor market, U-6. This is defined as Total unemployed,
plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time
for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus
all marginally attached workers and which is now a staggering
14.8% in February! Gaaahh!
these are government figures, which are notorious for understating
the bad news, which is plenty, and for overstating the good news,
of which there is none, unless you think that having to pay for
more government is good news, and if so, then I am pleased to tell
you that government payrolls are still rising, just like they always
And with people
not working, they are usually not in a hurry to buy things, and
thus companies make less sales and show lower revenue, which is
of interest to a lot of people, and thus there are a lot of people
who have noticed that stocks have fallen in price to where they
were in 1996, 13 years ago, which is using nominal dollars and which
is, although bad enough, only The Freaking Beginning (TFB) because
when calculating the investment losses in inflation-adjusted dollars,
the dollar has lost so much buying power since 1996 that any idiots
buying and holding stocks between then and now are getting destroyed,
which is just what you would expect from a negative-sum Wall Street
game where the majority of investors must lose money so that a minority
of investors can make a little money, but where everybody pays Huge
Freaking Commissions, Fees And Taxes (HFCFAT) every step of the
way, at every turn, thus financing a monstrous, cancerous growth
in government and the malignant, bankrupt economy based on government
spending and financial services that results! Hahaha! Were
morons and were freaking doomed as a result!
And it gets
worse than that, as Bob Wood of Kaizen Managed Assets notes, it
gets worse when looking harder and he has found one guy, Barry
Ritholtz, who is one of those who has looked harder, and he posted
a chart on his blog showing that in real terms, after inflation
using the CPI was factored in, the Dow is back to where it was in
1966! Yow! Forty-three years to get nowhere at best and completely
wiped out at worst!
of the Dow Theory Letters must have heard us talking about this,
and figures that if we want some scary statistics, then we should
listen up as he says, Since October 2007, when the bear market
started, the Dow has given up an amazing 7,640 points. Im
looking at the market now. The Dow is at 6,512. At this price, the
Dow has lost more than half of all its gains since the lowest point
in the Great Depression, which was 41.22 recorded in July 1932!
Yikes! Hes right! It is worse than we thought!
77 years to get nowhere, at best, and completely wiped out at worst!
It seems to
me that there is a lot of this Im losing my butt!
stuff going around, and Bloomberg.com reports, The value of
global financial assets including stocks, bonds and currencies probably
fell by more than $50 trillion in 2008, equivalent to a year of
world gross domestic product, according to an Asian Development
It was in the
Financial Times where we learn the additional news that the [ADM]
estimate takes into account falling stock market valuations and
losses in the value of bonds supported by mortgages and other assets,
though not financial derivatives. What? Hahaha!
count even a conservative estimate of the losses in the biggest,
most secretive, most complex and convoluted, the most fraught with
corruption, money-losing class of absurd financial assets in the
Whole Freaking World (WFW), variously estimated to be in a range
up to $225 quadrillion? They dont count any losses in derivatives?
the World Bank estimates that The global economy is likely
to shrink for the first time since World War II, and trade will
decline by the most in 80 years.
neither one of them then immediately suggested that you buy gold
for its wealth-protecting qualities so that you can survive the
years of turbulence ahead, but Hyper-Space Mogambo News Service
(HSMNS) does tell you to do that, at no extra charge, and if you
dont buy it, then dont come whining to me in the future,
crying, Please help us, Mogambo! We suffer because we acted
stupidly by not buying gold, silver and oil, and now the damned
Federal Reserve and the damned deficit-spending Congress have destroyed
us by creating so much money and debt that the purchasing power
of our pitiful piles of money is destroyed!
I will only
smile in response so that they will not know what I am thinking,
and I will let them naïvely think that I am considering their request.
I want them
to suffer so that their children may be instructed, and who will
then know not to behave as stupidly as their parents, which is the
only bright spot in this whole asinine, bankrupted, fiat-currency,
fractional-reserve banking, governmental-overspending mess.
have gold! Then you will prosper! Whee! This investing stuff is
Richard Daughty (Mogambo
Guru) is general partner and COO for Smith Consultant Group, serving
the financial and medical communities, and the writer/publisher
of the Mogambo Guru economic newsletter, an avocational exercise
to better heap disrespect on those who desperately deserve it. The
Mogambo Guru is quoted frequently in Barrons, The
Daily Reckoning, and other fine publications.
© 2009 Daily