Re: Brexit Will Probably Lose

Unfortunately, I think Michael is on to something with the current prediction market numbers (now 69-31 against Brexit).

The numbers are not only disturbing but also confirmation that a number of the non-economist political scientists are wrong: prediction markets don’t just closely mirror public-opinion polls and not much else.

Let’s not forget October to early November of 2012.  Drudge, Breitbart, and Fox News were all priming their viewers for a Romney victory based on some polls.  Dick Morris heralded the coming Romney “landslide.”  Rove, Krauthammer, Barone, and many of the other establishment “geniuses” were predicting a Romney victory.  The Intrade numbers for months, as Michael pointed out at the time, predicted an Obama victory.

We know the rest of the story: on election night, millions of conservatives and Republicans went out to dinner and parties prematurely celebrating a Romney-Ryan victory.  When they got home late, they were stunned to furious to see that Obama was declared the victor hours before.  A lot of Fox viewers and conservative talk radio listeners turned off Fox and talk radio for weeks to months because they felt they were duped.

Finally, let’s remember that few good things come through ballot boxes.  To paraphrase Emma Goldman, if they did change a lot, then they would be illegal.  The other problem is, if Brexit fails, no matter how slight, the ruling class will spin it as a huge victory and mandate for EU expansion on steroids.

Still, let’s continue to hope for a miraculous turnaround.