Brexit Yes stands at only 36 cents now, while Brexit No is at 64 cents. (Certainty is $1). The referendum is in 4 days. Brexit will probably lose. If Brexit wins, it will take a very large and rapid shift in this market and be a very big upset. That would be most unusual.

I find it amusing and interesting that newspaper headlines suggest Brexit Yes while the prediction market indicates the opposite. It probably attracts more attention and sells more papers to suggest Brexit Yes, it being a change in the status quo. In some cases, suggesting Brexit Yes when it’s the underdog has the objective of influencing votes and changing opinion.

While I’m at it, the Clinton-Trump contest now stands at 68 cents Clinton and 31 cents Trump on the Predictit market. The Iowa IEM market has Clinton at 72 cents (an average) and Trump 28 cents (an average). Clinton is becoming more and more of a sure thing. Trump had an upward spurt in the later part of May but lost all that gain in June. He is near life-of-contract lows. Clinton is near life-of-contract highs.

Trump’s VP choice currently has Sessions at 22 cents and Gingrich at 20 cents. Christie is at 15 cents. Clinton’s VP choice has Kaine at 25 cents and Warren at 24 cents.

The Best of Michael S. Rozeff