The stock market decline of 20 percent hurts Trump’s chances of re-election. For one thing, it means a recession is more probable. Consistent with that meaning, the betting odds on recession this year have suddenly flipped from being confident in no recession to making recession more probable (63.3 percent chance) than no recession (36.7 percent chance). Recessions historically make sitting presidents more likely to lose elections.
At the very same time, the Democrats have coalesced around Biden. He’s the favorite with an 86.6 percent chance of securing the nomination. Sanders is way, way below at a 7 percent chance. Clinton is a mere 2.4 percent chance.
This makes Trump more vulnerable because, with the right choice for vice president, Biden may pick off enough swing states to deny Trump his Electoral College edge.
Trump is under significant attack on the coronavirus front. This is a point of vulnerability that wasn’t present just a little while ago.
Trump’s vulnerability is a Republican vulnerability, and it’s showing up also in the bets being made about the Senate and House control. Senate control by Republicans has fallen in probability from 68.3% to its current 56.4% in the last week. House control has consistently been predicted to stay under Democratic control, and now that probability has risen to 69.7%, a gain of 8.7% during this last tumultuous week.
Trump’s odds of being elected have fallen, in reflection of all these vulnerabilities and other factors. He now stands at 50.5%, down from his high near 60%. Biden has risen to 42.8%. Sanders and others make up the remaining 6.7%.
5:29 pm on March 9, 2020
