Election Dynamics Update

The source of odds is Election Betting Odds. Links at the top of the main page are useful in bringing up charts. The link here is to the Senate and House forecasts. There was stability for a long time in the 2020 House composition odds, with Democrats having a near 75% chance of maintaining control. That has started to change noticeably. The Dems are just under 60% now and the Reps a wee bit over 40%. It won’t take much continuation of this to turn this contest for House control into a real horse race.

This shift has coincided with another upward move by Sanders who is now even more clearly running away from the pack. He’s at 51.4% chance of winning the nomination. Bloomberg is a long ways back in second at under 20%. Everyone else has been out of the running for some time, and they are even more clearly out of it now, according to current odds.

The more that Sanders moves out front, it appears the more that House control may pass to Republican control.

Sanders has improved relative to Trump too. As the rest of the field fades, this is almost bound to happen. Trump’s at 58% chance of getting re-elected.

There is nothing that jumps out of the betting odds charts that suggests foreign interference in social media has caused a notable effect. However, the latest rise of Sanders coincides with the big decline in Bloomberg, and they can be traced back to the recent debate.


10:31 pm on February 22, 2020