For their party nomination, the big loser is Clinton. She’s slipped from favorite to 24, or 3-1 odds aginst being nominated. She must be very unhappy. What sort of attack plan will she launch to bring Obama down? She’s toast unless she acts soon.
Correspondingly, Obama is at 74. If he wins, wagering 74 cents will get you only 100 cents. The market players are confident he will wrap up the nomination.
Romney has slipped very badly. He’s down to 12 after his long and slow climb to the 20’s. So he’s a 7-1 shot.
Paul has slipped further to 3 or 32-1. Always a long shot, market players are becoming more convinced that he cannot win the nomination. He may as well launch the most outspoken and clear educational exposition of his positions, building for the future, without any worry about what current voters he might alienate, because his chance of winning is very small.
The Republican race is still open. McCain maintains a lead over Giuliani with Huckabee and Romney looking for a way to engineer a surge.
For the Presidential election, Obama is almost even money to win (43 cents will get you one dollar.) The closest Republican, McCain, is 5-1. This market has predicted a Democrat victory for many months now. We’d better get used to the idea of an Obama Presidency.
10:16 am on January 8, 2008 Email Michael S. Rozeff
