Trump has had tiffs now (or already) with leaders in Australia, Japan, Germany, Mexico and Iran. His travel ban confronted 7 other countries. The warning to Iran is the most serious and could lead to U.S. attacks on Iranian assets. He has elicited a warning from Syria’s Assad over his safe zone idea. In domestic affairs, he has been bossing around and threatening a variety of parties.
This is quite a record for 12 days in office.
Trump’s style as president is pugnacious, confrontational, demanding and threatening. He is playing hardball. Trump doesn’t “speak softly” — quite the opposite.
What will come out of all of this? Let’s speculate. We can only suspect tendencies. How far they might go is unpredictable. Confronting the allies of the past like Australia, Japan and Germany will impel them to become more independent. Germany will move toward more cooperation with Russia. The EU will weaken. The NATO commitment of the U.S. will diminish. Japan will seek a larger military. The U.S. axis against China might weaken. The U.S. empire will become weaker or a bit more tenuous because that empire depends on bases associated with these allies and friendly relations with these countries. These sorts of possible effects are all coming into view where they were absent under Obama.
In domestic affairs, Trump is mobilizing his opposition. He threatens businesses with taxes and now universities with withdrawal of education funds.
The same big government that has favored various interests and has accumulated power for 100 years now is being turned by Trump against those interests. He is showing for all to see the dangers of such powers. However, I doubt very much that the libertarian inference will be drawn by the average American that these government powers and the redistribution schemes that are their consequence should be drastically curtailed. No, all that will happen is that those who have become targets of Trump will seek to regain the power of office so that they can restore the status quo ante, which is that they are the privileged beneficiaries of big government. The interests being attacked are not going to go quietly in the night.
Trump’s relations with intelligence agencies and the military are another matter. The recent raid in Yemen has been criticized by several military sources. This could be simply shifting of blame, or it could be a cloud on the horizon that suggests a Trump-military rift.
The political-economic equilibrium of the past produced domestic and international winners and losers from the growth of government power and its applications. Trump has a new and different notion that’s disturbing this equilibrium dramatically. This is creating great gnashing of teeth among Trump’s targets.
8:28 am on February 2, 2017
