As suggested when Biden was about 33 cents, he was in a definite downtrend; and any move below 30 cents would spell disaster in his bid for the Democratic nomination for president in the 2020 election. Whatever the Iowa voting mess is, Predictit now prices Biden at 18 cents in third place for the nomination. He’s effectively done for. Sanders seems stalled in the low forties, at 43 cents; but he’s actually gaining strength. Bloomberg has risen steadily since entering the race and he is now second at 19 cents.
Bloomberg is attempting to buy the Democratic party, in the analysis of Steve Bannon. He’s trying to spoil Sanders’ bid for enough delegates to win on round one of convention voting. It’s Bloomberg’s wealth vs. the majority of the Democratic voters who want Sanders. It’s the Democrat oligarchy vs. the Democratic rank-and-file.
Sanders has gained notable strength in the last few days when we look at individual states. In that tally, he is not stalled. He has flipped some previously Biden states like Arizona, Ohio and Pennsylvania where he now leads the pack. He is gaining some strength in the strong Biden states located across the Deep South and the Upper South.
There is no sign in the prediction markets that Clinton will be the favored candidate of the convention bigwigs if Sanders is thwarted. She’s way down there at 5 cents and she hasn’t budged.
10:17 am on February 4, 2020
