Israel struck in Syria against Iranian assets again on Sunday, April 29 (see here, here) and here.) Two weeks ago, Russia let it be known that it was delivering its S-300 defense system to Syria. It’s part of a system to defend Syria from Israeli missiles and aircraft.
Iran and Israel are not officially at war, much less total or all-out war; but their confrontation in Syria is escalating, and the escalation carried far enough brings them into open war. Israel’s attacks are killing Iranians. For a thorough but not overlong review of the situation, see here.
Iran’s presence in Syria is a threat to Israel. Israel has responded by constant attacks in Syria to hamper or degrade Iran’s activities. This form of war is limited, but it is still war, not peace. Iran has not struck back in force, but there has been the downing of an Israeli military jet in February after bombing an Iranian site. Israel shot down an armed Iranian drone thereafter.
The whole situation is a “game” of attack, defense, threat, counter-threat, and shifting red lines, being played by the U.S., Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah.
The U.S. has blundered very badly in the Middle East, time and again. It acted to stimulate the armed overthrow of Assad in 2011, which led to a civil war in which U.S. allies like Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar actively supported jihadist rebels. The U.S. attack on Iraq enhanced Iran’s presence in Iraq . The U.S. actions stimulated the growth of ISIS in both Iraq and Syria.
By its war moves in Iraq and Syria, the U.S. sided with Israel and stopped pursuing peace efforts between Israel and Syria and Iran. Yet the conflict between Israel and Iran cannot be resolved through war. Israel has nuclear bombs and will use them against Iran if its existence is ever seriously threatened. Iran, facing this threat, is deterred from attacking Israel in force. By the same token, Israel is deterred from attacking and defeating Iran on the ground because of Iran’s size, location, terrain and other factors. Nonetheless, serious war can happen, despite deterrence.
The U.S. has sought to isolate, contain and sanction Iran. The U.S. policy in Syria has resulted in the opposite happening. The nuclear pact was a notable step toward building a lasting peace, but the U.S. is in the process of throwing this away. Israel relies upon military force to defend itself, crossing borders at will. The U.S. is now pursuing the same kind of policy. This will never lead to peace. If Syrian air defenses with Russian help mitigate Israeli attacks, Iran will continue its buildup in Syria. Israel will still attack, albeit with greater losses.
A possible stable equilibrium is one that’s worse for the ambitions of the U.S. and Israel than when the the U.S. attacked Iraq and helped make Syria into a battlefield. Under current conditions, a possible peace requires that the U.S. and Israel recognize Iran as a power and stop harassing her. Iran has to agree to Israel’s existence. The Palestinian problem has to be resolved once and for all. The only other possible and less likely peace is one in which Israel as a Jewish state undergoes modification. Perhaps some combination of these two may finally bring peace to this troubled region.
10:11 am on April 30, 2018
