An important study published by the United States Army War College argues that the U.S. War on Terror has been a mistake.
Col. Erik W. Goepner did a study in 2016 titled “Measuring the Effectiveness of America’s War on Terror”. The Abstract reads as follows:
“Abstract: America’s efforts in the war on terror have been substantial and sustained, with more than four trillion dollars spent, two and a half million military members sent into harm’s way, and nearly 7,000 service members losing their lives over the past 15 years. To date, however, few studies have sought to measure the effectiveness of those efforts. This study empirically assesses the extent to which US efforts in the war on terror have achieved the government’s objectives and concludes those endeavors have been largely ineffective.”
In fact, the results are consistent with PERVERSE consequences of the war on terror:
“The data strongly suggest US efforts have had a significant and negative impact on terrorism over the past 15 years. Increased US efforts are correlated with a worsening of the overall terror situation. Statistical modeling indicates for every additional billion dollars spent and 1,000 American troops sent to fight the war on terror, the number of terror attacks worldwide increased by 19 ( data available from the author). Furthermore, the model finds up to 80 percent of the variation in the number of worldwide terror attacks since 9/11 can be explained by just those two variables — US money spent and military members sent to fight the war on terror.”
“America has invaded two Muslim-majority states and conducted military operations in an additional five (i.e., Syria, Pakistan, Libya, Yemen, and Somalia). Despite these efforts, the data indicate primary objectives have gone unmet and some areas have worsened (e.g., the number and strength of Islamist-inspired terror groups).”
Goepner’s entire study is clear, detailed, thoughtful and blunt. He concludes
“Finally, policy-makers should substantially curtail America’s offensive military operations. Instead, US Defense policy should focus on capabilities, such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, to support homeland security efforts.”
In other words, turning anti-terrorism into wars conducted overseas in Muslim countries has been a gigantic blunder that should be stopped. War is the wrong strategy for addressing terrorism.
I’d add that in human terms these wars have been a huge tragedy for the peoples involved.
Goepner calls for further research, and that’s essential. It’s apparent that U.S. policies have not been based upon sound and detailed information or knowledge.
In particular, there should be detailed research into the American-held ideas that generated these wars so that they can be completely discredited. An obvious candidate is the role played by neoconservatives and neoconservative ideas in influencing the decisions that led to these tragic wars. Another area of research is the role played by our governing institutions and the incentives faced by policy-makers. It seems obvious that they have failed in important and systematic ways that relate to the nature and construction of America’s government. A third area of research could investigate the role of media and government communications in influencing public opinion and support for wars. A fourth area might be the role of crowd psychology in the aftermath of terror events.
The concept of terrorism itself needs great clarification. It is senseless to label Iran as chief source of terrorism, for example, without stretching the term into uselessness. How can this possibly be true when we know that al-Qaeda and ISIS have very different roots than Iran, and that the 9/11 attackers were mainly Saudis? Most of all there should be research into the nature of extremist terrorism, particularly with respect to Wahhabism.
9:42 am on January 24, 2018
