A stunning change in the odds of the Democratic nomination occurred after the South Carolina primary won by Biden. He vaulted into the lead (57.3% chance of winning), with Sanders now second (32% chance of winning.) Political outcomes are subject to great uncertainty as this sharp and rapid change in odds shows.
The Biden odds are higher than any of the contenders has achieved in this contest to date, surpassing Warren’s peak and Sanders’ peak readings in the low fifties.
Sanders was already falling due to his Castro remarks, it seems. He had had difficulty getting above 50% for some time. Bloomberg had already played his spoiler role. There was more and more talk of stopping Sanders from people like Carville and nameless Democratic Partycrats. Obama telephoned Biden, maybe a key event that tipped his hand. Obama’s influence is large and his endorsement is yet to be won. Plus several contenders dropped out of the contest and were last seen headed for the Biden camp.
Supportive Democrats are ignoring Biden’s corruption, his doddering and his other negatives — at this time; but political markets are volatile. One or two remarks of a tenor that may lose whole states or voting blocs can undermine any politician.
Today is Super Tuesday. This is predicted to favor Biden. Should Biden put in a good showing, and he probably will, Obama will have reached a point where he cannot do anything except endorse Biden without demonstrating to everyone that primaries do not count and insider control is what matters.
9:46 am on March 3, 2020
