Below are shown market predictions (% chance of winning) as of 1:40 p.m. yesterday, adjacent to the name of the state or territory. Beside each is added the name of who actually won.
Alabama BIDEN 97% chance of winning; BIDEN won.
American Samoa NO INFO
Arkansas BIDEN 88%; BIDEN won.
California SANDERS 91%; SANDERS won.
Colorado SANDERS 92%; SANDERS won.
Maine SANDERS 86%; BIDEN is ahead by 1 percent, about 35% to 34%.
Massachusetts SANDERS 71%; BIDEN won.
Minnesota SANDERS 81%; BIDEN won.
North Carolina BIDEN 93%; BIDEN won.
Oklahoma BIDEN 82%; BIDEN won.
Tennessee BIDEN 87%; BIDEN won.
Texas BIDEN 55%; BIDEN won.
Utah SANDERS 83%; SANDERS won.
Vermont SANDERS 99%; SANDERS won.
Virginia BIDEN 96%; BIDEN won.
In 11 out of 14 states, the candidate predicted to win did win. In 3 states, Biden upset Sanders: Maine, Massachusetts and Minnesota. The market predictions were wrong in these 3 states.
There may be revisions when all the votes are in, but they are unlikely to change the overall picture.
Biden now has a 75.5% chance of winning the nomination. Sanders’ chance has fallen drastically to 17.1%.
8:45 am on March 4, 2020
