Iran: How a “Limited Strike” Could Snowball Into a System Shock

International Man: We’ve seen President Trump issue sharper warnings toward Iran. In your view, are US–Iran tensions headed toward open war, or is it just tough negotiating?

Doug Casey: Trump fancies himself as the world’s best negotiator. But the world increasingly sees him as an unpredictable schizophrenic, unguided by reason. No one can tell what he’ll do or say next. But we know that he’s concentrating air and naval armadas around Iran.

Since Iran presents no risk to anyone but Israel, any US attack on Iran would be unprovoked. They’ve been accused of so-called terrorist actions in the past. But what have they done against the US in recent years? The answer, I think, is nothing except for name-calling—the US is “The Great Satan.” Considering the country’s history since the CIA overthrew its elected president in 1953 to install the Shah, it’s understandable that the occasional mob chants “Death to America.” US media naturally paints Iranians as lunatics who froth at the mouth… The Preparation: How T... Smith, Maxim Check Amazon for Pricing.

I wish I could offer a personal assurance on that score. But, although I’ve been to about 160 countries, Iran isn’t one of them. It’s one of my great regrets that, some years ago, when I was invited to play polo in three Iranian cities with the New Zealand Ambassadors team, I had to beg off because of an injury. All I can say is that any country that maintains an active polo culture, and invites “farangs” to join them qualifies as civilized and worth knowing.

The Iranians see the US as a puppet of Israel, aka The Little Satan. Since Trump is Netanyahu’s BFF, and his cabinet and advisors are all rabid Zionists, it’s likely the US will do something violent. If only because The Donald always wants to prove he’s “tough,” and doesn’t like the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) label.

While Trump crows about being the peace president, the US has bombed seven countries—unprovoked—prominently including June’s massive attack on Iran at the behest of our “friend” Israel. There is no friendship between nations in the world of realpolitik.

Incidentally, I have nothing against Israel. I just think it’s stupid and immoral to be drawn into their wars, and treat them like a 51st state.

International Man: What do Washington and Tehran each want right now? Is it possible to make a deal?

Doug Casey: Tehran just wants to be left alone, which isn’t asking much. Washington, however, wants Tehran to disarm, including nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, essentially. That has nothing to do with American safety; it’s all about Israel.

We have to ask ourselves: Why is Iran the enemy of the month, now that Venezuela is on a back burner? Is it just because the current regime is run by nasty criminals? Well, of course it is. So what? Most of the world is run by nasty criminals.

It appears the mullahs quashed an incipient revolution a few weeks ago, killing tens of thousands. Were they encouraged by Trump telling them that “Help is on the way!”? Probably. But you have to ask yourself why Washington is feigning outrage for the local government murdering in Iran, and not in any of a half dozen other countries?

Maybe I’m being unfair. After all, Washington bombed Nigeria a few months ago, taking sides in the long-running conflict between the Christians and the Muslims. Why not also take sides between the Jews and the Muslims? I’ll have to check the list to see if Nigeria is one of the eight countries where Trump recently (as of October 15) claimed to have mandated peace.

International Man: Do you think a “limited” conflict would spiral into a full-scale regional war—and if it does, what would that war look like, and can the US realistically win?

Doug Casey: No, the US can’t win a war with Iran any more than it was able to win a war with Vietnam 50 years ago, or more recently with Afghanistan. When you’re fighting guerrillas on the other side of the world, you’re probably the bad guy, not the good guy. In Iran, let’s hope that all that happens is that the US drops bombs and creates local chaos.

However, it’s not likely to be so simple this time. The numerous US bases in the Middle East are not safe. The massive Bahrain naval base and Qatar airbase might be hit with hundreds of missiles. The 2000 troops the US still has in Syria could be overrun. This time, the Iranians must respond in earnest if the US mounts a major attack, not just a strike against one specific target, like the nuclear base in June.

If the Iranians take this seriously, they might launch a full-scale cyber-attack against the US since the world runs on computers, that has the potential to cripple commerce, industry, utilities, and the financial system in the US. So not only can’t the US win a war against Iran, but it would be heavily damaged in the effort.

Can the US naval strike force, with the carrier Abraham Lincoln, survive a massive missile barrage? Unlikely, especially if it’s supplemented by hypervelocity missiles that the Iranians have almost certainly purchased from the Chinese or Russians.

Hopefully, Trump will get some wise counsel from the Pentagon, but I doubt it. He’s a narcissist who resents anyone who disagrees with him. That means he’s predictably surrounded by sycophants and yes-men.

International Man: How do you see Israel’s role in this? Could they start a war that neither Iran nor Washington wants?

Doug Casey: Israel is like the malicious little boy provoking a fight between two bigger boys: “Why don’t you and him fight?”

No question that Israel wants a war, because Iran is Israel’s only serious enemy in the region. Of course, they’d like to see Iran destroyed or to have a major regime change. That’s understandable. The Iranian regime is a militant theocracy that takes the Koran and the hadiths seriously. Which is to say they see Jews as the enemy. It doesn’t matter that most Israelis are secular, because Israel itself is technically a theocracy.

Israel certainly wants to avoid fighting Iran by itself, however. Iran is said to have several thousand long-range missiles stored, and is manufacturing hundreds more every month. The Israelis need the Americans to do the heavy lifting.

I don’t see any way out for Israel over the long run, however. Even if Iran is devastated by the US, in 10 years, some new threat will arise. Maybe the Egyptians, resurgent Iraqis, or Pakistanis, or any of 50 other Muslim-majority states. Israel has an insoluble problem. Education of a Wanderi... L'Amour, Louis Check Amazon for Pricing.

International Man: What are the economic, financial, and geopolitical consequences if Iran and the US engage in a full-scale regional war?

Doug Casey: It would be real chaos. I think the biggest consequence would be the breakup of Iran. Remember that Iran itself, although it’s an ancient country—an ancient empire—is itself only about 50% ethnic Persians. The rest of the country are Azerbaijanis, Arabs, Kurds, Afghans, and what-have-you.

If the current regime collapses, there’s a good chance that Iran would break up into a number of smaller states. And that could prove contagious throughout the region. The Kurds in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq might unite with the Kurds in Iran to form Kurdistan. Almost none of the countries in the region are organic; they’re all artificial constructs. Which means that although the breakup of Iran would be great for Israel, it would likely result in widespread violence.

The US poking a hornet’s nest on the other side of the world can only result in death, destruction, and chaos, with nothing to be gained by the US. But it seems likely. I suspect Trump is hoping the theocratic mullahs will be replaced with kinder and gentler versions of themselves. Who knows? It’s said hope is one of the cardinal virtues. And virtue matters in a religious war.

One thing that won’t happen is for the Shah’s opportunist son to become the next ruler, even though the younger Pahlavi is getting widespread press coverage promoting him as the next Shah. But who knows? If he gets a few favored Trump-whisperers in his pocket, anything is possible.

Reprinted with permission from International Man.

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