Yesterday the Biden administration ‘declassified‘ laughable numbers about alleged Russian losses. It did not help. Zelenski’s mission to get more money from Congress has failed:
Following a roughly 30-minute meeting with Zelensky – their first one-on-one encounter – House Speaker Mike Johnson said the Biden administration’s response to congressional Republicans’ demands has been “insufficient,” and reiterated his stance that a deal remains unlikely without a “transformative change” at the border.
The Republicans also asked the White House for its strategy in Ukraine. But as the New York Times reported yesterday, there is none.
U.S. and Ukraine Search for a New Strategy After Failed Counteroffensive
American and Ukrainian military leaders are searching for a new strategy that they can begin executing early next year to revive Kyiv’s fortunes and flagging support for the country’s war against Russia, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials.
…
The United States is stepping up the face-to-face military advice it provides to Ukraine, dispatching a three-star general to Kyiv to spend considerable time on the ground. U.S. and Ukrainian military officers say they hope to work out the details of a new strategy next month in a series of war games scheduled to be held in Wiesbaden, Germany.
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That the counter-offensive had failed has been obvious since mid of June. A reason for the failure were fake war-games during which the parameters were skewed until the games showed that Ukraine would win:
Logic dictates that any responsible use of the KORA simulation system would have predicted the failure of the 47th Brigade’s attack. According to The Washington Post, the officers of the 47th Brigade “planned their assaults and then let the [KORA] program show them the results – how their Russian enemies might respond, where they could make a breakthrough and where they would suffer losses.” The KORA simulation allowed the Ukrainian officers to coordinate their actions “to test how they’d work together on the battlefield.”
Given that the Ukrainian force structure was insufficient to accomplish the mission-critical task of suppression, there was no chance for the Ukrainian forces to accomplish the actual assault requirements of a breaching operation – the destruction of enemy forces on the opposite side of the obstacle barrier being breached. The Ukrainians, however, came away from their KORA experience confident that they had crafted a winning plan capable of overcoming the Russian defenses in and around Orekhov.
When one examines the structure of a KORA-based simulation, it becomes clear that the system is completely dependent upon the various inputs which define the simulation as a whole.
Now the U.S. is sending one of its generals to take command of the Ukrainian army and will launch more war games. To what outcome will their parameters be skewed.
Apparently the time since late June was insufficient to come up with a new strategy for Ukraine. This will not do:
Some in the U.S. military want Ukraine to pursue a “hold and build” strategy — to focus on holding the territory it has and building its ability to produce weapons over 2024. The United States believes the strategy will improve Ukraine’s self-sufficiency and ensure Kyiv is in a position to repel any new Russian drive.
The goal would be to create enough of a credible threat that Russia might consider engaging in meaningful negotiations at the end of next year or in 2025.
At the same time, Ukrainian officials are examining strategies that build on their successful deep strikes on Crimea last fall. They are searching for creative ways to keep Russia off balance with attacks against arms factories, weapons depots and train lines for moving munitions, and to score symbolic victories. One Ukrainian former senior military official declined to discuss the proposals but said the new plan is being refined and is “very daring.”
The plan is that Ukraine will go into defense mode while committing more terrorism. But why would Russia let Ukraine build real defense lines? Ukraine is starved of artillery ammunition. It does not have the troops to hold all lines.
And whatever line it can build will break under intensive fire.
In the Summer of 1943, after German attack on Kursk had failed, the Soviets went into an offensive mode that did not stop until its troops captured Berlin. The German army retreated to defense lines, then retreated again and again – all the way back to Berlin. It took nearly two years, but the outcome was obvious as soon as the attack on Kursk had failed.
I expect something similar to happen in Ukraine.
The U.S. is starting its typical mission creep:
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top American commander in Europe, has been taking a bigger role in coordinating with Ukrainian officials.
The Pentagon has also decided to dispatch Lt. Gen. Antonio A. Aguto Jr., who commands the support of Ukraine from a base in Germany, to spend lengthy periods of time in Kyiv. General Aguto will work more directly with the country’s military leadership to improve the advice the United States is offering, American officials said. While the White House has opted not to have U.S. military advisers in the country permanently, General Aguto’s frequent rotations in and out of Kyiv would inch toward the end of that restriction.
A three star general does not come alone. He has a full group of staff, dozens, which will now become military advisors on the ground in Ukraine. They will also become priority targets.
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And what do those advisors know about an industrial warfare that Ukraine soldiers do not know. Well, nothing.
Yves Smith as well as Simplicius have further thoughts on this.
I for one see no change yet of the trajectory Ukraine is on. It is losing badly while its propaganda is still claiming victory. Consider this from today’s Washington Post:
Loud explosions jolted many residents out of bed around 3 a.m. in central Kyiv, followed by air raid alert sirens a few minutes later. Ukraine’s air force said that antiaircraft defenses shot down all 10 ballistic missiles that were launched at Kyiv. That assertion could not be independently confirmed.
Multiple missile impacts happened BEFORE the air alarm went on. But the Ukrainian military claims to have shut all incoming missiles down. That does not sound like a plausible time line to me. I, in fact believe that the few air defense system Kiev was give, like its artillery, pretty much out of ammunition.
With no further aid coming from the U.S., and potentially also not from Europe, it is high time to shut the war down.
Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.
