Three Prerequisites for Peace

December 27, 2023

Please consider Our Three Prerequisites for Peace

Hamas must be destroyed, Gaza must be demilitarized, and Palestinian society must be deradicalized. These are the three prerequisites for peace between Israel and its Palestinian neighbors in Gaza.

First, Hamas, a key Iranian proxy, must be destroyed. The U.S., U.K., France, Germany and many other countries support Israel’s intention to demolish the terror group. To achieve that goal, its military capabilities must be dismantled and its political rule over Gaza must end. Hamas’s leaders have vowed to repeat the Oct. 7 massacre “again and again.” That is why their destruction is the only proportional response to prevent the repeat of such horrific atrocities. Anything less guarantees more war and more bloodshed.

Second, Gaza must be demilitarized. Israel must ensure that the territory is never again used as a base to attack it. Among other things, this will require establishing a temporary security zone on the perimeter of Gaza and an inspection mechanism on the border between Gaza and Egypt that meets Israel’s security needs and prevents smuggling of weapons into the territory. The Maker Versus the T... Bowyer, Jerry Best Price: $10.36 Buy New $19.00 (as of 07:56 UTC - Details)

The expectation that the Palestinian Authority will demilitarize Gaza is a pipe dream. It currently funds and glorifies terrorism in Judea and Samaria and educates Palestinian children to seek the destruction of Israel. Not surprisingly it has shown neither the capability nor the will to demilitarize Gaza.

Third, Gaza will have to be deradicalized. Schools must teach children to cherish life rather than death, and imams must cease to preach for the murder of Jews. Palestinian civil society needs to be transformed so that its people support fighting terrorism rather than funding it.

That will likely require courageous and moral leadership. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas can’t even bring himself to condemn the Oct. 7 atrocities. Several of his ministers deny that the murders and rapes happened or accuse Israel of perpetrating these horrific crimes against its own people. Another threatened that a similar attack would be carried out in Judea and Samaria.

Egypt Proposes a Deal, But Israel and Hamas Say No

Yesterday, I wrote Christmas for Gaza? Egypt Proposes a Deal, But Israel and Hamas Say No

A Starting Point

If both side genuinely dislike the deal, we have a starting point for negotiation.

It’s clear that Israel would dislike this proposal for several reasons. Does Hamas dislike the deal?

If Hamas has to give up power, and that can somehow be enforced, they probably do hate this proposal. But what’s the enforcement mechanism to keep Hamas out of power?

No Future in One-Sided Proposals

There is no future in one-sided proposals. The beauty of the Egyptian proposal is that everyone hates it. Handcraft Blends Peppe... Buy New $8.99 ($2.25 / fluid ounce) (as of 07:56 UTC - Details)

I do not expect Israel to accept that deal now.

However, after Hamas is weakened further, especially if Israel can take out all or most of Hamas leaders, we have a genuine starting point for discussion.

The alternative is endless war.

I brought up destroying or weakening Hamas and keeping militants out of power, even asking “what’s the enforcement mechanism to keep Hamas out of power?

Netanyahu proposes a “a temporary security zone on the perimeter of Gaza and an inspection mechanism on the border between Gaza and Egypt.

Details including the definition of “temporary” are going to be a stumbling block.

One thing I missed is “Gaza deradicalization”. Will that take months, years, or decades? How does that work? Is it even possible?

Assuming it is possible, Israel will have to prove itself. That will take investment in Gaza, more services, and more jobs. Mistrust is not one-sided.

Israel needs to build enough trust so that the ordinary Palestinian will be willing to hand over extremists and report extremist plans.

So, what does “temporary” mean? How long is it?

This post originated on MishTalk.Com

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Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management.