## Guesstimating Relative Risk of Mortality by Vaccination Status

Summary: This post is my attempt to find the relative risk of mortality by vaccination status based on two completely different data sets involving tens or hundreds of millions of people that give surprisingly similar estimates of relative risk.

(For those who like to ask, “what is the bottom line,” I calculated the relative risk of vaccinated mortality as 40% greater than unvaccinated – but read on, please.)

WARNING: This post brings forth a VERY PRELIMINARY conclusion. I would prefer that you consider my calculation to be “food for thought” as opposed to “firm proof.” I am bringing up a hypothesis to be discussed and nothing more. Even the calculation itself may be mistaken. I selected the title and subtitle accordingly so as not to be unnecessarily alarmist and limit the spread of this post.

Before we get into numbers:

• Many countries are experiencing excess mortality
• There are some indications that excess mortality is related to the Covid vaccination program.
• Various countries have very different RATES of Covid vaccination among their populations – and their mortality statistics are available.
• In the UK, the population is split into deprivation quintiles with varying vaccination levels, with excess mortality also known.

I analyzed excess mortality by country as well as excess mortality in the UK by deprivation quintile:

This gives us two sources to correlate excess mortality with vaccination rates: by country (first article) and by UK deprivation quintile (second article).

These two methods involve completely different data sets — and yet they produce amazingly similar results!!!

Here are the two respective linear regressions:

Both regressions contain the “equation,” that is, the line that best fits the data provided in the inputs. Y is the excess mortality, and X is the vaccination rate.