Truth, Conspiracy, or SNAFU -- YOU Decide

We will not escape from this misery until the Government has been forced to admit that it made a foolish mistake and over-reacted wildly to Covid-19. –The BBC’s Peter Hitchens

A snowball’s chance in the hot place comes to mind. Rather than waiting for that ice water, as usual, we’ll have to straighten this out for ourselves.

So, do you believe COVID-19 will kill you? And will the economy re-open? The two answers are joined at the hip.

Because it’s not so much the virus that needs to be brought under control, it’s the establishment narrative, fake news and urban myth about the virus.

At Our Wits’ End... Woodley of Menie Yr., ... Best Price: $22.52 Buy New $20.62 (as of 07:25 EST - Details) Let’s get that truth nailed-down right now.

First the context we get from this:C.D.C. estimates 24,000 to 62,000 U.S. flu deaths occurred [in the ~six months] from Oct 1, 2019 thru March 21, 2020.

An estimate when the actual data exists? What would it be for a full year? And with a range of 38,000, it’s clear they didn’t bother to actually do a tally. Why don’t they keep their numbers up-to-the-minute? So where did their numbers come from?

They use computer simulations — but why use simulations instead of tallying data that already exists? What about the COVID-19 numbers they’re feeding us?

Indeed, all the constantly changing scare projections are done with computer simulations appropriately called “models” which must always be based on programming assumptions. That’s why some nerds call them “technical fiction.”

…people who work with models always tend to overestimate their models, They come to believe models are real and forget they are only models.–polymath Freeman Dyson

Unfortunately there’s a lot more to this than just over-confidence in computer models.

First and possibly most egregious – – – there are so many “egregious” it’s hard to rank them – – – is the way the political/bureaucratic/pseudo-scientific/newsie Blob steadfastly confuses “infections” with “cases.” Like this for example – – –

The United States marked a record number of coronavirus cases Friday for the third consecutive day, notching 77,638 new infections in 24 hours, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University. –US sets another virus record with 77,638 new cases: Johns Hopkins |

So, are they cases or are they infections? In the real scientific world, things simply aren’t done that way. In his letter to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, thoroughly credentialled virologest Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi put it like this – – –

“In infectiology — founded by Robert Koch himself — a traditional distinction is made between infection and disease. An illness requires a clinical manifestation. [1] Therefore, only patients with symptoms such as fever or cough should be included in the statistics as new cases. In other words, a new infection — as measured by the COVID-19 test — does not necessarily mean that we are dealing with a newly ill patient who needs a hospital bed.”

Bottom Line: A case reqires an infection but an infection is not a case.

Neither Liberty nor Sa... Robert Higgs Best Price: $3.99 Buy New $10.00 (as of 05:35 EST - Details) With any disease — seasonal flu for example — there are always infected folks with mild or no recognized symptoms who don’t enter the medical system. They’re called “asymptomatic” but the newsies etc. pretend it’s new with COVID-19 and scary.

But to heck with the newsies, keeping in mind that infections are not cases, let’s see if the politicians and health bureaucrats stick to Koch’s basic science – – –

In a Commissioners Court hearing for Collin County [Texas] on May 18th, it was revealed that while previously the determination of a Covid “case” was a confirmed test result, the definition was suddenly changed to count “probable” cases as “cases.” … Even worse, once a “probable” case was determined based on possibly unrelated subjective criteria, up to 15 people in possible contact with that “probable” case were also listed as “probable cases.” And “probable cases” were considered cases.Is the Texas Covid ‘Spike’ Fake News?, By Ron Paul [bolding emphasis added]

So, by calling “confirmed test results” — which only indicates an infection — “cases,” even before The Blob gets out the gate it’s already completely off the infectiology reservation. Worse according to The Blob — and now flying in the face of Koch’s scientific baseline at MACH 2 — apparently if you say hello in person to someone who was probably infected, you’re automatically escalated right through “infected,” and directly into a “case” yourself as are up to 14 other friendly folks.

So even POSSIBLE infections have been escalated into full-blown “cases.” The more testing, the more infections you’ll find — but you call themcases” too. So if you’re wondering where all these “spikes” are coming from, now you know. They’re being mostly defined and imagined into existence.

To paraphrase Stalin, “It’s not the infections, cases and deaths that define the ‘pandemic,’ it’s those who report the infections, cases and deaths.

So now we know the official “cases” statistics, whether generated by tally or computer, are technical fiction and/or pretty much garbage.

So, unless you want to be completely misinformed, you can just about completely disregard official figures and stats so far — and those who purvey them.

Unfortunately the source of this unscientific and basically dishonest reporting goes much deeper than just “probable cases” in Collin County, Texas. It also includes reported deaths.

For example – – –

The city [New York] has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive. –N.Y.C. Death Toll Soars Past 10,000 in Revised Virus Count – The New York Times [emphasis added]

The Miraculous Results... Jeff T Bowles Best Price: $4.97 Buy New $9.99 (as of 01:50 EST - Details) Notice the word “presumed” — and “never tested positive” in the above. So the official stats admittedly include presumed coronavirus deaths as well as Collin Co’s “probable cases.” That “3,700 additional people” amounted to more than a 50% increase in reported NYC COVID-19 deaths at the time — all of them “confirmed” and/or “verified” by presumption.

And, if it can be done by presumption, what exactly do “confirmed” and/or “verified” actually mean?

Further, keeping in mind that among many other mislabeled causes of death as you’ll see, until May 26, 2020, the C.D.C.s list of symptoms for recognizing COVID-19 — and those for recognizing seasonal influenza — are almost identical. How could they tell the difference? So, how good were those presumptions anyway?

So, not only are the official “case” stats pretty much garbage, so are the official death stats. How much is “pretty much?” Stay tuned.

While this makes for exciting reportage and attention-getting politics, clearly it isn’t science and it isn’t correct.

So, “Why would Collin Co. Texas, New York City, etc. do that?” you ask?

From that same Times article – – –

The C.D.C., in its guidance to local governments, has recommended that cases of “assumed” coronavirus infection be noted on death certificates since before New York City recorded its first death on March 14. [bolding emphasis added]

So, they would do that because the C.D.C. recommended that they do. Why would the C.D.C. recommend something that seriously unscientific and misleading — and do it even before any deaths?

That’s a very interesting question you may want to keep in mind while deciding, “Truth, Conspiracy or SNAFU.”

And, in case there’s any doubt U.S. Government health institutions — following C.D.C.s guidelines — did indeed recommend padding the figures with “probable infections” and “‘assumed’ infection[s]” listed as “cases” — and presumed COVID-19 deaths without proof – – –

Dr. Scott Jensen, a Minnesota physician and Republican state senator said he received a 7-page document coaching him to fill out death certificates with a COVID-19 diagnosis without a lab test to confirm the patient actually had the virus. –MN Senator and Dr. Reveals HHS Document Coached Him on How to Overcount COVID-19 Cases

… and this from Trump-team star Dr. Deborah Birx – – - Feardom: How Politicia... Connor Boyack Best Price: $4.12 Buy New $6.98 (as of 11:35 EST - Details)

“We’ve taken a very liberal approach to mortality.”…”If someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” Birx said. –Dr. Birx Confirms Anyone Who Dies WITH Coronavirus, Regardless of Any Underlying Health Condition, is Being Counted as a COVID-19 Death

Also note (directly below) how the Italian health system — where the reported fatality rate and death toll were used to warn — OK, scare — everyone, similarly fudged the Italian COVID-19 numbers – – –

“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.” –Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health,

Particularly note the similar language used by both Dr. Birx and Prof. Ricciardi — “very liberal approach to mortality” (Dr. Birx) and “very generous” (Prof. Ricciardi). Such very similar language implies a common source. Is there one?

And just how “very liberal” and “very generousare those mortality numbers? And how scientific?

Before answering those questions, let’s nail-down the common source where this misleading and unscientific reporting practice actually originated. I stumbled on the final troubling nail buried in this Bloomberg article – – –

As Russia’s surging coronavirus infections have turned it into a global epidemic hotspot second only to the U.S., one thing puzzles health experts: Why is it reporting so few deaths? –Experts Question Russian Data on Covid-19 Death Toll – Bloomberg

Notice the typical anti-russia slant. But it’s what comes next that nails the common source we’ve been looking for – – –

The Geneva-based agency of the United Nations (W.H.O.) issued guidelines in mid-April asking countries to register fatalities linked to Covid-19 “where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death.” …. The mortality rate is low in Russia because the statistics only include the deaths of people directly attributed to Covid-19, said an official with knowledge of coronavirus fatality calculations. Other countries with higher totals have broader criteria for attributing deaths to the virus. More than 60% of fatalities of people suspected of having contracted Covid-19 [in Russia] are not classified as coronavirus deaths because they occurred “from clearly other causes,” the Moscow health department said in a statement on its website, noting that autopsies are performed in all suspected cases.      … Experts Question Russian Data on Covid-19 Death Toll – Bloomberg [bolding added]

So, it seems, C.D.C. and/or W.H.O. are the common source of the misleading and anti-scientific reporting. And our first estimate of how “very liberal” and how “very generous” is that “more than 60%” of Russians suspected of dying of COVID-19 didn’t. Plague of Corruption: ... Mikovits, Judy Buy New $16.51 (as of 02:59 EDT - Details)

And W.H.O. and the world health establishment join the C.D.C. in violating basic infectiology science — and then they all diss Russia for telling the truth.

So, instead of questioning Russia’s solid science-based death toll, why didn’t the experts question the grotesquely “more than 60%” inflated and scientifically indefensible death toll created by following the instructions from C.D.C. and W.H.O.? What IS going on here?

Why would W.H.O., C.D.C., etc. do that? Hard to tell for sure, but this is interesting – – –

“The FDA receives 45% of its annual budget from the pharmaceutical industry. The World Health Organization (WHO) gets roughly half its budget from private sources, including Pharma and its allied foundations. And the CDC, frankly, is a vaccine company; it owns 56 vaccine patents and buys and distributes $4.6 billion in vaccines annually through the Vaccines for Children program, which is over 40% of its total budget.” – Robert F. Kennedy, Jr… [source]

and this – – –

The corporate takeover of W.H.O. youtube

And, since the establishment hasn’t been honest, there are conspiracy theories of course – – –

The Farce and Diabolical Agenda of A “Universal Lockdown”, By Peter Koenig, Global Research

The Covid Set-Up Is Now Fully in Play as CDC Outlines Plan for Death

For whatever reason they do it, I think we can safely say that what passes for the world health establishment is clearly all-in padding and distorting the official COVID-19 stats and figures into something that would even embarrass “fake news.”

So help me out here. What do you think at this point? Is the official COVID-19 narrative true, a conspiracy, or just another SNAFU?

But now, with padding and distorting in mind — and knowing where that came from — we’re prepared to answer, “Just how ‘very liberal‘ (Dr. Birx) and ‘very generous‘ (Prof. Ricciardi) not to mention ‘how padded and distortedare those Stalinesque world health establishment mandated COVID-19 death numbers?

We already know they included about a third of those originally reported early deaths in NYC — unscientifically presumed to be caused by COVID-19 without tests.

But OK, ignoring some of the problems with the tests for now, what could possibly be wrong with the figures when tests have been used?

Although it’s not immediately obvious, we already know. As the CDC requested — and Dr. Birx and Prof. Ricciardi verified — “If someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death…

So, what’s wrong with that?

“…the mistake is being made worldwide to report virus-related deaths as soon as it is established that the virus was present at the time of death — regardless of other factors. This violates a basic principle of infectiology: only when it is certain that an agent has played a significant role in the disease or death may [that] diagnosis be made. ” –ibid, infectiologist Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi

The difference between dying FROM COVID-19 versus dying WITH COVID-19 may seem trivial but, in practice and by science — originally established by seminal infectologist Koch himself remember — it’s extemely important.

Suppose for example, Uncle Joe checked into a hospital with a mild concussion from falling while suffering a heart attack. Would they treat the concussion or the heart attack? If Uncle Joe dies, was it the mild concussion that killed him or the heart attack?

The same goes if you check into a hospital with a COVID-19 infection and pneumonia. That is, if you really did have a COVID-19 infection.

The concussion and COVID-19 are called co-morbidities — and/or pre-morbidities — and which one caused death is obviously a critical determination, not only for treatment, but also for accurate analysis.

Here’s a real-life example – – –

I have a friend whose 95-year-old mother was hospitalized for COVID. On day two of the hospitalization, the patient died of a massive heart attack. Guess what the primary cause of death was listed on the death certificate? If you guessed COVID-19, you win the prize…. Because of this, COVID will be diagnosed as the cause of death far more than it should. –Dr Brownstein | Fake COVID-19 Death Numbers [As you can see, The Federal Trade Commission coerced Dr. Brownstein into taking that page down.]

So we have “infections” illegitimately called “cases” — and now, deaths attributed to the virus simply beause it may have been present.

But you want numbers, right?

We already know that “more than 60%” of suspected Russian COVID-19 deaths weren’t from COVID-19, but we can do better.

As reported by Bloomberg, based on a study by Italy’s official Istituto Superiore Di Santita, when Italy began to re-evaluate and report their results without fudging the supposed COVID-19 caused fatalities they found – – – – – –

…just three victims, or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology. Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions. More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease. [that is, 99.2% suffered at least one pre-morbidity] –99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says – Bloomberg

Prof. Ricciardi sums it up like this – – –

“On re-evaluation by the [Italian] National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,” [Professor Ricciardi] says.

So only 12% of Italian deaths can be directly attributed to COVID-19. Co-morbidities killed the other 88%.

What do you suppose they’d find if they honestly re-examined U.S. death certificates?

It’s reasonable to suggest that in the country that followed CDC guidelines which “recommended that cases of ‘assumed’ coronavirus infection be noted on death certificates since before New York City recorded its first death on March 14,” that they would find a similar 12% COVID-19 to 88% co-morbidities ratio. Let’s go with that.

So, by sneaking deaths caused by co-morbidities into their guidelines, the world health establishment managed to inflate COVID-19 deaths by more than seven times!

As a result, you get the next “egregious” – – – you get the “official stats” for case fatality rate as elegantly displayed by the gonzo Johns-Hopkins/ COVID-19 app showing “Confirmed Cases” and “Global Deaths.”

Definitely an elegant app but we know the figures aren’t even close because they include infections as Confirmed Cases and about 88% of the deaths can’t legitimately be attributed to COVID-19. Garbage in, garbage out.

Worse yet, the numbers imply a grossly inflated fatality rate — called the “case fatality rate” — which measures how many of the sickest folks die, most in care homes and hospitals.

Remember “most die in care homes and hospitals” for later.

For example, on June 3, 2020, 10:03:14, the Johns-Hopkins numbers showed that for every 17 folks who came to the attention of the medical establishment, one of them died for a case fatality rate of about six percent (6%). We now know that’s garbage to start with because approximately 88% of them died from co-morbidities, not from COVID-19.

Rather than the scare-number of how many folks with serious symptoms and pre-morbidities die, we want to know “How many of the folks infected with COVID-19 die from COVID-19?” That is, we want to know the trueinfection fatality rate.”

To figure that out, we need to know how many folks in a whole population are infected, not just the sick ones that enter the medical system. That’s a much larger number of folks — many who are “asymptomatic” remember — and we don’t know who or where they are, which makes this a much harder question to answer. It requires statistics and careful sampling – – –

One of the first studies — Santa Clara Co. California — conducted by 17 researchers including Prof. John P.A. Ioannidis, who, commenting on the lack of evidence for the extent of infections, pointed out in early March that – – –

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization [WHO], cause horror – and are meaningless.

Note that the flawed Johns-Hopkins numbers he’s referring to already implied a much higher 6% case fatality rate on June 3.

With scientific humility, often missing these days, Prof. Ioannidis describes the results of that Santa Clara study like this – – –

“…the number of infected people is somewhere between 50 and 85 times more …compared to what had been documented [as cases]. Immediately that means the infection fatality rate, the chance of dying, the probability of dying if you are infected diminishes by 50 to 85 fold…. Our data suggests that COVID-19 has an infection fatality rate that is in the same ball park as seasonal influenza.” [emphasis added]

You can find extensive results from other subsequent similar studies — verifying COVID-19’s infection fatality rate is about the same as seasonal influenza — collected here.

So why don’t “we” mandate masks, social distancing and other ceremonial symbolic measures — and lock-down the world economy — to try to stop seasonal influenza every year?

And keep in mind, if these studies are using the ~88% inflated C.D.C.-W.H.O. death-toll numbers, that means the true infection fatality rate for COVID-19 is likely significantly less than for seasonal influenza. In fact, as John Rappoport hypothesizes, there’s an outside possibility that the dangers of COVID-19 may be mostly a statistical artifact produced by the fake statistics connecting it to the real killers, the co-morbidities.

We know that the number of officially reported — and so-called verified and/or confirmed — deaths and cases attributed to COVID-19 are complete fiction that might even make Stalin wink. And the statistical truism that “correlation does not imply causation” obviously applies. Still, why does COVID-19 keep mysteriously showing up correlated with all these deaths and cases?

The biggest and most obvious part of the answer is that the C.D.C.-W.H.O. guidelines specifically instructed the world-wide medical establishment to illegitimately create that correlation with incorrect and misleading record keeping and reporting.

Why would they do that? Well, to give them at least a limited hang-out excuse, they might claim they were afraid “we” wouldn’t take their warnings seriously if they didn’t wildly exaggerate things.

And now their problem is, once it becomes obvious that COVID-19 was wildly exaggerated, heads will roll, so most of the world establishment is desperate for more COVID and more horror stories. With about 7 billion humans on Earth, guaranteed they will find them. And, just like the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, you can always just make them up too.

Here’s one of the tricks, thanks to a tip from from a credible source: Record each positive test as an infection. That means when a second or third etc. test is given to a patient to verify or track a positive, each positive test shows up in the records as a separate infection. So if one patient is given, say, 14 tests over a two-week period — which is common practice in tracking an infection — and they’re all positive, that one patient shows up in the records as 14 separate infections. And of course, they’re all reported as full-blown “cases.” .

So, will COVID-19 kill you? Will the economy re-open?

Even if you believe the official figures, unless you’re over 60 and/or have co-morbidities, it almost certainly won’t kill you.

Even if the stats weren’t fake news, closing down the economy to save grandpa is like trying to shoot a gnat with an elephant gun — except you and grandpa are in a metal-walled room and the bullets ricochet.

And of course, the government won’t admit it wildly screwed-up. Even if it did, most folks don’t trust “our” elected psychopaths and liars anyway, so rather than a “re-opening,” the best we can hope for is a re-evolution. If we can get That Thing That Lives in Washington D.C. out of our way.

And, BTW, what do you think?

COVID-19: Truth, conspiracy, or SNAFU?

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