Leading Harvard doctor says coronavirus is NOT as deadly as feared because only a small number of contained cruise ship passengers have died and only 0.001% of China's average 25,000 deaths a day are from the virus

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Dr Jeremy Samuel Faust, emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, and an instructor at Harvard Medical School, said people should not be anxious about the outbreak

A leading Harvard doctor has claimed that coronavirus isn’t anywhere near as fatal as people fear, saying the real death rate is less than 1 percent - far lower than the World Health Organization’s alarming figures of 3.4 percent. 

Dr Jeremy Samuel Faust, emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, and an instructor at Harvard Medical School, said people should not be anxious about the outbreak and stop hoarding food and masks in preparations to self-isolate, in a post he penned for Slate.

Initial reports suggested about two to three percent of people who get the disease will die, similar to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic which wiped out over 50 million people worldwide.

The World Health Organization has upped the figure further to 3.4 percent.

While directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have given a lower rate of 1 percent.

However, Faust said that the real case fatality rate, known as CFR, is actually lower than each of these reports.

He said that looking at the Diamond Princess ship gives a better indication of how fatal the disease is than global statistics, because it provided a controlled environment to study how the disease spread.  

‘A quarantined boat is an ideal—if unfortunate—natural laboratory to study a virus. Many variables normally impossible to control are controlled,’ wrote Faust.

The doctor slammed the ‘frightening numbers’ for the global death rate of coronavirus which are not only conflicting, but massively overstate the risk to people

‘We know that all but one patient boarded the boat without the virus. We know that the other passengers were healthy enough to travel. We know their whereabouts and exposures.’

Around 705 passengers out of the 3,711 on board the boat caught coronavirus.

More than half did not show any symptoms or signs of illness.

Six people from the boat have died, giving a death rate of 0.85 percent, Faust said.

However, he added that not a single death among passengers has been in a person under 70, showing the rate is lower still in younger cases.

Faust said that looking at the doomed cruise ship, which became a hotbed for the infection, provides more realistic figures of how fatal contracting the disease is. Around 705 passengers out of the 3,711 on board the boat caught coronavirus but only six have died, giving a death rate of 0.85 percent

‘The data from the Diamond Princess suggest an eightfold lower mortality amongst patients older than 70 and threefold lower mortality in patients over 80 compared to what was reported in China initially,’ he wrote.

‘But even those numbers, 1.1 percent and 4.9 percent respectively, are concerning. But there’s another thing that’s worth remembering: These patients were likely exposed repeatedly to concentrated viral loads (which can cause worse illness). Some treatments were delayed. So even the lower CFR found on the Diamond Princess could have been even lower, with proper protocols.’

He also cast doubt on the death toll in China, saying it is impossible to know how many people in China were already ill before being infected with the virus – and how many actually died of coronavirus and not a similar illness. 

He also pointed out that 25,000 people die in China every day, while just 25 coronavirus deaths have been reported per day in the country at the height of the outbreak. 

The doctor slammed the ‘frightening numbers’ which he said are not only conflicting, but massively overstate the risk to people.   

People are pictured wearing masks in New York on Tuesday. Faust also goes on to raise doubts over the death toll reported from China. He said it is impossible to know how many people in China were already ill before being infected with the virus – and how many actually died of coronavirus and not a similar illness

A woman wears a protective mask at a local market on Wednesday in Beijing. Faust points out that 25,000 people die in China every day, a high proportion of which is due to respiratory diseases which show symptoms similar to coronavirus

He pointed out that 25,000 people die in China every day, a high proportion of which is due to respiratory diseases which show symptoms similar to coronavirus.

Figures from China show that just 25 of the typical 25,000 daily deaths were from coronavirus at the peak of the outbreak and many of the deaths were of individuals in the same age groups and in the same areas where the deaths from respiratory diseases was already high.

‘Most were older patients in whom the chronic diseases listed above are prevalent. Most deaths occurred in Hubei province, an area in which lung cancer and emphysema/COPD are significantly higher than national averages in China, a country where half of all men smoke,’ wrote Faust.

‘How were doctors supposed to sort out which of those 25 out of 25,000 daily deaths were solely due to coronavirus, and which were more complicated?’

Coronavirus is ‘a relatively benign disease’ for young people and, though it is dangerous for the elderly and chronically ill, the dangers are far lower than people think, Faust said.

Faust’s claims may provide welcome relief as fears over coronavirus have been spreading faster than the disease itself.

Eleven people have now died from coronavirus in the US and the number of confirmed cases has soared to more than 150.

Ten of the deaths have occurred in Washington state while California recorded its first death on Wednesday, among an elderly patient with underlying health conditions who is thought to have been exposed on a cruise ship from San Francisco to Mexico in early February.

At least six of the 10 deaths in Washington are linked to the senior living facility, Life Care Center, near Seattle, where most residents are elderly or have chronic conditions.

Faust said the heightened risk for old people means the priority should be protecting these people. 

People are pictured stockpiling supplies in a store in Los Angeles last week. Eleven people have now died from coronavirus in the US and the number of confirmed cases has soared to more than 150

Instead of stockpiling food, Faust said the public should be helping the elderly and infirm

Shelves where disinfectant wipes are usually displayed are nearly empty at a Target store in Novato, California on Monday. Sales of hand sanitizers alone were up 73 percent in the four weeks ending February 22 compared to the same period a year ago, according to market research firm Nielsen

He encouraged the public to focus on nursing homes and hospitals, where the old and ill reside rather than places like schools where healthy individuals are far more likely to survive.

Instead of stockpiling food, he said the public should be helping the elderly and infirm.

His comments come as panic buying across the US has ramped up in recent weeks, with anxious shoppers loading up on essential items such as bottled water, toilet paper, disinfectant, tinned food and cleaning products to prepare for the possibility of having to self-isolate.

Sales of hand sanitizers alone were up 73 percent in the four weeks ending February 22 compared to the same period a year ago, according to market research firm Nielsen.

Most if not all pharmacies and supermarkets have been out of face masks for more than a month, with little hope of restocking anytime soon as the US faces a shortage.

However, while hand sanitizer and face masks are flying off the shelves, Faust also warns that these are not effective in curbing the spread of the disease.

He wrote: ‘(Yes, just wash your hands).’