Recently by Bill Bonner: The Economic Flop That Was 2010
Yesterday, we promised to give you a Prediction-Plus about the stock market. You remember what a Prediction-Plus is, dont you? Its better than a prediction. Its what you should believe even if it turns out to be wrong.
What should you believe about bonds? Theyre going down. Theyre a suicidal investment, says our old friend, Marc Faber.
What should you believe about gold? Its going up. Yes, we know it might go down. Yesterday, gold dropped $44 dollars. Whee! Weve been warning you for months that gold could correct. No bull market goes up in a straight line. And gold has already attracted too many speculators who dont really know what they are doing.
Financial Reckoning Da... Best Price: $2.36 Buy New $2.49 (as of 04:30 UTC - Details)
Remember what happened during the last big gold bull market in the 70s? Gold lost 50% (from memory) of its value, in 74, before finally hitting its high in 80. Gold could drop down below $1,000.
We wish it would. So we could buy more!
But what about stocks? What should you believe about the stock market?
You should think theyre going down.
Mobs, Messiahs, and Ma... Best Price: $1.95 Buy New $9.00 (as of 04:30 UTC - Details)
Because theres more downside than upside. Because stocks are good things to buy during an expansion, but not during a contraction. Because the bear market that began in 2000, or in 2007, has never fully expressed itself; it has a rendezvous with the bottom which should be at less than half todays levels. Because stocks normally rise when interest rates go down; today, were probably facing rising yields for the next 5 or 10 years.
And because there are potential crises coming up in 2011 which could trigger a big sell-off in stocks.
Because because because
You have to play the odds. The last big run-up in stocks began in 1982. At that time the Dow was barely over 1,000, the yield on a 10-year US Treasury note was around 15%, and the US was just arriving at its Reagan-era peak.
Today, the world is practically the inverse of 82. The Dow is over 14,000 and yields are close to zero. And the US is tired, slipping down like a used-up empire. Yields have nowhere to go but up. The Dow will probably go down.
And even if it doesnt, you should think it will. Because investors are overwhelmingly bullish. Theyve plumped their money down on stocks. The smart money is taking the other side of that bet. You should too.
January 6, 2011
Bill Bonner [send him mail] is the author, with Addison Wiggin, of Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of The 21st Century and The New Empire of Debt: The Rise Of An Epic Financial Crisis and the co-author with Lila Rajiva of Mobs, Messiahs and Markets (Wiley, 2007).