Not so long ago, secession was a taboo subject for discussion in polite society. It was almost un-American to thoughtfully consider a state leaving the Union for any reason. Everyone thought that Lincoln's War settled that issue. But today's America is a seething cauldron of resentment toward Washington and the "Mobocracy Looter Minions" that populate the District of Columbia and its suburbs.
If you watch any news service for seven days, you'll learn that the dollar is weak and growing weaker. You'll learn that other nations are preparing to disconnect from the dollar as the world's reserve currency. And you'll learn that America is in big trouble, at home and around the world. (Wonder why Chicago didn't get the Olympics? What countries like the USA right now?)
Over half of the American states have passed legislative resolutions exerting their rights under the Tenth Amendment. That's nice, and symbolic…and somewhat unusual for slaves to stand up to the plantation owner. But it's not really necessary.
So when is the best time to actually pull the trigger and secede from the United States?
I believe that states should be making concrete plans right now for secession. States already have intricate plans in place in case of natural disasters and such. Should not a state have a plan in place in case of political disaster?
The United States Federal Government is a dying monster. But is still possesses political might, military might and potency. Dying monsters quite often thrash about and injure those that are too nearby. So at this point in time, while Washington still APPEARS viable, state secession would not seem to be a wise move.
After all, why would a state willingly take the chance of incurring the wrath of Washington? It would be like in the Tolkien movie "Return of the King," when the good guys presented themselves at the Black Gate to divert the gaze of Sauron's all-seeing eye. Washington might turn its fury on a seceding state to make an example of it, in order to discourage any other state from trying secession.
Washington is working 24/7 to produce substantive changes in American governance and culture. And, at some point, some state might decide that enough is enough. But I believe that it will take an event that happens outside of Washington to bring about Washington's collapse.
The most likely event is the worldwide rejection of the US Dollar as reserve currency, and the worldwide use of any other currency as reserve. Even the change of the dollar as the currency of choice of any major petroleum bourse will spell disaster for the dollar.
Iran has already formed an oil bourse, which uses the Euro, the Iranian Rial and a basket of other currencies as the settlement currency for petro transactions. Its first day of trading was Monday, October 26, 2009, on the Free Trade Zone Iranian island of Kish. Iran, having the world's second largest gas reserves and third largest oil reserves, is trying to play a more active role in oil and petrochemical transactions in international markets.
Between the rejection of the dollar worldwide, and the selloff of US Government securities by nations like China, combined with runaway money printing by Washington and the hyperinflation that MUST follow, the dollar has nowhere to go but down…and precipitously.
The value of the dollar will tumble against other currencies…very soon. It will happen as other nations scramble to get rid of American currency and securities holdings and protect the very survival of their own nations. Washington has been passing bad checks for too long, and the nations are stepping to the pay window.
It is at this moment in time, when the dollar freefalls, that the states will have a golden opportunity to secede. States must do what it takes to assure their own survival, and not as a slave state to Washington. But a secession alone won't solve anything. The heavy lifting just begins when a state secedes.
First there would have to be a Provisional Government installed until the formal government could be designed and brought into being as a legal entity.
The very next thing that MUST be settled is the issue of money. If a new nation adopts the very same banking environment that America has right now, the new nation will be doomed to fail. The new nation MUST have a 100% gold/silver standard. It must also prohibit by law fractional reserve banking. Both government monopoly on monetary policy and fractional reserve banking are counterfeiting by another name. It must be prevented before it starts.
Monetary policy and banking worldwide is failing. A new nation needs to go another way, and that way is to return to sound money. Most of the other challenges that a new nation would face will be easier if the new nation has money backed with precious metals at 100% reserve. But you cannot counterfeit your way to liberty and prosperity.
Timing is everything. If states secede at the time that Washington is drowning in worldwide debt and the financial markets worldwide cause the collapse of the dollar, Washington may be powerless to stop secession. Ask Moscow how well they stopped the secession of the Western Soviet republics in 1989.
I know I'm getting to be "Johnny One-Note" about monetary policy, but that should tell you how crucial it is. Remember that no nation in the history of the world has survived that counterfeited its money. Not one. Ever.
- A bourse is a commodities exchange in oil, petroleum and natural gas.
November 3, 2009