Those growing numbers of foreign policy critics who have been
claiming that the Obama administration is simply George W. Bush’s
third term were confounded last week as the new president put
the kibosh on one of Bush’s most beloved and most dimwitted
projects.
Obama's welcome cancellation of Bush’s proposed antiballistic
missile system (ABM) based in Eastern Europe marks a major breakthrough
in US-Russian relations, a victory for political realism over
ideology, and a sharp defeat for Washington’s increasingly out-of-touch
neoconservative hard right.
Egged on by Vice President Dick Cheney and anti-Russian neoconservatives,
Bush declared the US would build a strategic antimissile system
on the Czech Republic and Poland designed to shoot down Iranian
nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM’s) targeted
on the US and Europe – even though Iran did not have any long-ranged
missiles and was unlikely to ever produce them.
Bush’s bizarre plan – some called it the mutant son of President
Ronald Reagan’s cherished Star Wars antimissile program – predictably
enraged Russia. Imagine America’s reaction if a Russian antimissile
system were built in Cuba or Northern Mexico. The proposed US
ABM system posed no real threat to Russia, but it was a slap
in the face to the Kremlin and an intolerable provocation.
What’s more, no one was sure of the new system would even work
in the event of any attack. It looked awfully easy to sabotage
or spoof.
Worse, the Bush White House was dangerously provoking Russia,
which had some 2,000 nuclear warheads targeted on the US, by
planning to deploy the ABM system against Iran which, according
to US intelligence, had no nuclear weapons and showed no signs
of planning to produce them. Deepening the confrontation with
Moscow, the Bush administration openly backed Georgia in the
foolish conflict it picked with Russia, raising dangerous tensions
between the two great powers.
Scrapping the ABM system will allow Washington and Moscow to
restore their battered relations and resume fruitful arms limitation
cooperation. Maintaining normal relations with Moscow, and avoiding
tensions that could spark a nuclear war, remains Washington’s
most important foreign policy strategic imperative.
Conservative Czech and Polish politicians are loudly complaining,
but opinion polls show that a majority of their citizens opposed
Bush’s ABM plan.
Cries by US Republicans and neoconservatives that Obama’s scrapping
of the ABM system was "appeasement" and "a second
Munich" are laughable. Sen. John McCain, a big booster
of US invasions of Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia, actually had
the chutzpah to accuse Russia of "adventurism."
World War II mythology has become something of a state religion
for faintly informed Republicans. Many actually believe that
Muslims are Nazis in turbans.
These were the same Republicans that backed George Bush’s comical
claims that Saddam’s Iraq was deploying "drones of death’
– shades of Dr. Fu Manchu – that would sprinkle plague powder
over a sleeping America.
By contrast, President Obama has faced reality. The US seeks
Russia’s support to impose crushing sanctions on Iran – or launch
military operations. Washington needs Moscow’s support in supplying
US forces in Afghanistan, and dealing with North Korea. Bush’s
pie in the sky missile plan had to go.
It is an old adage that American administrations can only deal
with one big question at a time. Obama faces three: America’s
financial meltdown, Iran, and Afghanistan, where US generals
are actually warning of possible defeat at the hands of lightly
armed Pashtun tribesmen. Barack Obama knows the mess in Afghanistan
could wreck his presidency, humiliate the United States, and
even return the Republicans to power.
So there is no time right now to worry about Eastern Europe,
and no stomach in the administration to go on provoking Russia
over unneeded ABM systems or the Caucasus.
Ironically, Russia may eventually have to save the US in Afghanistan
from the same kind of catastrophic defeat that befell the USSR.
We can be sure Moscow will exact a steep price for pulling America’s
chestnuts out of the Afghan fire or getting tougher with Iran.
Moscow is already three moves ahead of Washington on the strategic
chessboard.
To
mollify angry Republicans and East European conservatives, the
White House announced it would deploy smaller SM-3 antimissile
missiles and perhaps some updated PAC-3 systems to Europe. The
SM-3’s would be based at sea and others on land to protect against
the supposed Iranian "threat."
Not explained was why Iran would risk nuclear annihilation
in order to fire a few inaccurate missiles at Bucharest, Brussels
or Warsaw. Why on earth would Iran attack Europe, its largest
trading partner and potential ally? The only possible target
for Iran in Europe would be US bases. But there are a wide number
of US bases around Iran. Tehran has ample targets close to home.
The White House sheepishly admitted Bush’s much ballyhooed
threat of long-ranged Iranian missiles had been "exaggerated."
The danger, said Washington, now comes from short and medium-ranged
Iranian missiles. But Iran’s longest-ranged missiles fly only
2,000 km, are inaccurate, and lack nuclear warheads. For now,
they are about as dangerous as Saddam’s useless Scuds.
But a lot of Americans don’t want to hear any sense about Iran.
We seem to have a national need for highly threatening foreign
foes, real or imagined.