Like the HMS Titanic The GOP is Headed for Disaster Yet Her Officers Refuse to Heed the Warnings An Open Letter to All True Patriots

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late in the evening of April 14, 1912, the crew of the HMS Titanic
had received eight iceberg warnings from six different ships. Most
unfortunately, they were not heeded. Some of the iceberg warnings
were not even reported to the bridge. An attitude of complacent
confidence in ship and crew prevailed. Near midnight going at close
to full speed her lookouts spotted a huge iceberg dead ahead. Unable
to alter her course and speed in time she struck and scraped against
the iceberg on her starboard side. Within three hours that magnificent
ship, thought by many to be unsinkable, sank into a watery grave,
carrying 1503 of her passengers and crew with her.

the last few weeks President Bush has proposed amnesty for illegal
immigrants, especially Mexicans, now living in the United States.
Yet Bush only received 35 percent of the "Hispanic" vote
in November 2000 despite a deliberate "Hispanic" campaign
strategy. Very probably he received no better than 25 percent of
the votes of relatively recent Mexican immigrants. Even using Bush's
target of obtaining 38 to 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in the
next election, for every two Republicans recruited in this very
questionable scheme, three new Democrat voters will be created.
These simple statistics should alone be sufficient to discredit
amnesty as an incredibly stupid idea for Republicans. Furthermore
such a general amnesty would set an evil precedent for the rule
of law. In addition, every sensible person knows that amnesty for
illegal immigrants can only work to increase the already enormous
numbers of illegal aliens coming across our borders.

study just released by the Center for Immigration Studies by two
University of Maryland professors, James G. Gimpel and Karen Kaufmann,
addresses the Bush "Hispanic" Strategy. It should be sobering
reading for anyone with high confidence in Bush's strategy. Every
Republican and variety of conservative should read it. Some key
findings pertinent to this discourse are summarized here:

Current immigration policy is slowly but steadily shifting the nation's
electorate toward the Democratic Party.

Democrats lead Republicans by comfortable margins of 20 percent
or better in every

ethnic Group except Cubans, where the once large GOP lead has dropped
to only six percent.

Hispanics do not align themselves with the Democratic Party because
of the party's position
on immigration, nor is there likely to be any significant realignment
with the Republican Party because of immigration policies or amnesty.

Amnesty will NOT yield political benefits to the Republican Party.
It will strengthen instead the Democratic Party substantially.

Hispanics align themselves to the Democratic Party because of their
preferences on education, health care, and social services. These
generally liberal preferences are unlikely to be embraced by conservative

Republicans that believe education and assimilation will improve
their share of the Hispanic vote will find disillusion rather than
encouragement in this report. Only increasing levels of income seem
to make a difference, and that surprisingly paltry.

conclusions should not come as a shock to anyone. They have been
obvious and self evident to anyone willing to take off their blinders
and rose-colored glasses. But we now have a Republican Party leadership
that has not only deceived itself; they have been very busy creating
and disseminating sentimental myths about the politics of our new
waves of immigrants. It is time to put sentimental myth in its place.
It is time to base our policies on truth and on the long-term good
of the nation. In so doing we must weigh heavily the survival of
constitutional government, a just and moral society, and all the
other noble legacies of government and society which have become
a sacred heritage paid for in blood and sacrifice. Most of all it
is time to put away the base notion that the Republican Party must
imitate the pandering and demagoguery of the Democrats to maintain
itself in office. Whatever our policies on education, health care,
and social services they should be shaped by an enlightened view
of the public good, not on what will get the most Hispanic votes
or the votes any other group.

Republican leaders wake up and very soon, their extraordinarily
misguided policies on immigration will sink the GOP and with it
every noble principle of government once held dear by the friends
and defenders of liberty. The damage will be permanent and progressive.
This unwelcome demise will effect the outcome of every issue: taxes,
abortion, gun control, government spending and regulation, Supreme
Court appointments, education, the protections of constitutional
government, racial preferences and quotas, labor, the moral foundations
of our society, national defense, everything.

Bush and his advisors in proposing this new amnesty for three million
illegal aliens would add to the already burgeoning millions of recent
immigrants that vote for Democrats by a ratio of two to one or better.
This massive immigration began with the 1965 Immigration Act, authored
by that far-seeing friend of liberty, Ted Kennedy. Because of its
lax provisions the U. S. electorate shifts toward the Democrats
steadily and significantly each year. This immigration is overwhelmingly
from third world countries, but particularly Mexico. Bush, his advisors,
and key Republican leaders have thus far not had the political courage
to stem this tide, which if unchecked will eventually doom them.
Should anyone doubt the political impact of recent immigration let
them look to California. The state that gave us Ronald Reagan is
now solidly and incontestably Democrat and liberal. What states
will be next?

amnesty proposal is a mistake of colossal proportions. How will
enfranchising millions of illegal immigrants whose earlier legal
counterparts vote from 60 to 75 percent Democrat help Republicans?
It will not. Does anyone on the President's staff have a calculator?
Has the failing of our public education systems already had such
an adverse effect
that our President and his chief advisors cannot understand simple
math? Are percentages beyond their knowledge and reasoning ability?
Amnesty and the failure to reform the 1965 Immigration Law will
shift the now narrow balance of power to the liberal Democrats.
I shutter to think of the social, moral, economic, and national
security damage that would be the inevitable result of long term
control of the U. S. government by liberal Democrats.

Bush's "Hispanic" strategy in campaign year 2000 was a
signal and portentous failure. This failure should be an icy clarion
of warning. Yet his advisors want to put the whole Republican Party
on that strategy in 2002 and 2004. They believe they can raise that
vote to 40 percent by such flagrant pandering as amnesty for illegal
aliens. It will instead be a disaster of titanic significance.

preponderant majority of recent immigrants both legal and illegal
are coming from Mexico. They are also predominantly unskilled and
uneducated. The unskilled and uneducated are not good bets to vote
Republican. It does not matter whether the unskilled and uneducated
are from Mexico or from the most advanced European democracies.
The unskilled and uneducated are not as a group, no matter what
nation or ethnic group they come from, interested in tax cuts, constitutional
law, and limited government. Low wage earners of all ethnic groups
new or old in our country enjoy a very light federal tax burden.
An unfortunate side effect of this otherwise great social blessing
is that they are little interested in tax cuts or tax equity. Fallen
human nature being what it is, they have substantially more interest
in big government and social welfare programs. Republicans are not
going to get a majority of their votes except by appealing to them
(or pandering to them) on issues such as increased government roles
and spending on welfare and healthcare. Let us not forget that the
Democrats are unequaled in their ability to pander and demagogue
on almost any social or economic issue. The modern Democrat Party
is not notable for a high regard for truth, or for genuine and selfless
patriotism. God forbid that we should try to imitate them.

another factor should inform our deliberations on the political
impact of such a numerous invasion from South of the Mexican border.
Mexico is not and has never been the ideological home of Jeffersonian
limits on government power. All three major Mexican political parties
are essentially different factions competing for the power of big
government to distribute the national wealth and income. That mentality
is pouring over our borders in unprecedented numbers. What realistic
person believes that Bush or any Republican can convert even 40
percent of this group to the historical values of the Republican
Party? Even that still leaves a formidable Democrat dominance. Many
of these new Democrats bring a more Leftist and Radical ideology
than mere welfarism.

increased immigration is an incredibly risky, insane, and suicidal
policy for Republicans. But perhaps Bush, Rove, and Gilmore believe
Republicans can sweep the Hispanic vote with a timely election endorsement
by Mexican President Vincente Fox.

and his advisors need to remember that there is a difference between
Mexicans and Cubans and also between the new Mexican immigrants
and the older Mexican families that have been in Texas and New Mexico
for generations. His advisors should note that the conservative
element of these ethnic groups, which are most in tune with other
Republican policies, and their most likely allies, do not favor
increased levels of immigration. Such pandering as Bush is proposing
by amnesty insults the very people most likely to respond to legitimate
appeals to common economic and social conservatism.

Republicans and religious conservatives are under the false impression
that this army of new immigrants is composed principally of socially
conservative, faithful Catholics naturally sympathetic to pro-life
appeals. That characterization is about two full generations out
of date. In the last 50 years Mexico has undergone the same unfortunate
deterioration of faith and morals as the United States only much
more so. The Catholic Church is much less influential in Mexico
than was once the case. Most recent immigrants from Mexico and Central
America are at most nominal Catholics and are essentially unchurched.
That the moral influence of the Church has been weakened is evidenced
by higher rates of illegitimacy, AIDS, abortions and crime compared
to non-Hispanic whites in the United States. Thus the notion that
recent Mexican immigrants are socially conservative, promising converts
to the Republican Party could scarcely be further from the truth.

conservatives of all denominations and stripes should not dismiss
the political consequences of unfettered, domination by liberal
Democrats ushered in by increased millions of new immigrant voters.
They should not dismiss the implications of such a revolution on
their liberties, the faith and virtue of their children, their churches,
and society. Modern liberalism is no friend of faith and virtue.
As always, impiety bears a grudge against righteousness. Modern
liberalism given unchecked political power would not long tolerate
any God but humanistic government. Religious conservatives should
not dismiss the mathematical and temporal proximity of such a revolution
born of our own folly in immigration policy. If ever a nation and
its leaders in every walk of society needed moral and spiritual
backbone, it is now. Religious conservatives should not allow themselves
to be intimidated by mere name-calling and unwarranted accusations.
Every parent has the right to guard the faith and virtue of their
children. Those who will not guard the faith and virtue of their
children are worse than infidels. Every nation has the right to
guard its borders and its culture. Every nation has the right to
resist foreign invasion. Every nation has the right to guard the
integrity of its political systems and processes. Every nation has
the right to guard its heritage with all its political, social,
and economic traditions.

contest over immigration policy is not about race. It is about the
potential of enormous and unprecedented demographic changes to upend
a great republic. It is about political philosophies and political
power. We need make no apology for being on the side of liberty
as we have known it for 225 years. Thereby it has strong implications
on faith, virtue, freedom, and every aspect of culture, society
and economy. It is about retaining our identity as a nation and
the preservation of cherished institutions. The greater contest
is between those that believe government and society should follow
the prescriptions of Divinely Revealed Truth and those that would
dethrone the God of Truth and worship at the alter of their own
twisted and depraved musings.

who naively believe amnesty and neglect of badly needed Immigration
Reform will be the end of Republican compromise of its current principles
had best brace themselves. Compromise on immigration policy will
inevitably lead to compromise in other areas as well. It is already
upon us. Just in the last few days President Bush and Attorney General
Ashcroft have decided to defend racial preferences in a Supreme
Court case. Recent expensive Republican National committee publications
contain a disproportionate amount of public relations fluff, especially
multi-cultural fluff. This is not reassuring to conservatives within
the Republican Party. It is rather a sign that the RNC is on a slippery
ideological slope and moving the party and America toward the precipice.
The neglected Republican base is moved by principle, not fluff.
The campaign style of Bill Clinton and his ilk is unlikely to be
successful for Republicans.

RNC for the last several national campaigns has abandoned most social
issues out of an inordinate fear of the liberal media and soccer
moms. Unless the Republican Party can muster the courage to address
social as well as economic issues it will see its base decline in
both numbers and in the motivation that compels voters to polls.
Immigration Reform should have been high on their list of campaign
and legislative issues. Its neglect has moved the GOP and the nation
toward the precipice of political domination by liberal Democrats.
A Roper Poll in 1996 revealed 83 percent of Americans favored lower
immigration and 70 percent favored reducing immigration back to
the pre-1965 level of 300,000 per year. Immigration Reform was badly
needed and would have provided Republicans with a powerful issue.
Yet sadly, in 1996 the Republican Party drew back from the issue,
no doubt because their inordinate fear of being portrayed as racist
by the liberal media and appearing mean-spirited to soccer moms.

that time the RNC has been nearly as relentless as the liberal media
in their efforts to anesthetize voters on the dangers of massive,
uncontrolled third world immigration.

recent Gallup Poll indicates their efforts have been at least partially
successful, only 41 percent of Americans favoring decreased immigration,
42 percent happy with present unprecedented levels, and 14 percent
favoring increased immigration. This poll indicated that only 33
percent of Hispanics favor increased immigration. Although this
poll represents a startling apathy on the immigration issue, it
is an apathy based on delieberate suppression of the gravity and
visibility of the immigration issue by the RNC as well as the liberal
media. Should Republicans awaken from their RNC induced suicidal
malaise, Immigration Reform could become a powerful and effective
campaign issue favoring Republicans.

fact, if the Republicans fail to make Immigration Reform a key issue,
their party will very soon be relegated to a permanent and shrinking
minority. In that case we can kiss our recent tax-cuts good-bye.
The new liberal Democrat hegemony will need those to dollars to
distribute to its clients and maintain itself in power. So it will
be with every issue dear to both economic and social conservatives.

balance of power is currently very narrow. Republicans and conservatives
have every reason to be extremely concerned about Bush and RNC campaign
strategies. One concern ought to be just why the President only
received 54 percent of the white vote, which still accounts for
80 percent of actual voters, whereas successful Republican Presidential
campaigns in the recent past have garnered 58 to 59 percent. This
relatively poor showing of 54 percent for Bush was following a Democratic
administration among the most corrupt in U. S. history.

served in the Republican ranks as a County Chairman, Precinct Captain,
fund raiser, door-to-door campaigner, and veteran of many years
and many responsibilities in state and local elections, I hear the
reason for Bush's rather poor showing almost every day. Bush and
the RNC are taking conservatives for granted. Amnesty and double-talk
on racial preferences are just the latest example of lip service
and flagrant disregard of conservative concerns. Moderates and Big
Business PACs may give money to the party, but conservatives both
give money and man the trenches to get out the vote on election
day. Many conservatives believe the President is reaching out to
everybody but them. Hence they are not as highly motivated to vote
as usual. They are even less motivated to get their families, friends,
neighbors, and churches to the polls on election day.

and failure to address Immigration Reform will mean the end of the
Republican Party as a potential governing majority as early as 2004.
The disillusioning effects of amnesty, uncontrolled immigration,
and unopposed racial preferences on the party's base make immigration
a double-edged sword. This combination of millions of new voters
with a Democrat proclivity of two or three to one over Republicans
and disillusion of the party's conservative base could hand the
liberal Democrats and unexpectedly decisive victory in 2004. From
there the slide into permanent liberal hegemony is very steep.

is growing late, but still not too late. Republicans can recover
by abandoning any flirtation with amnesty and embracing Immigration
Reform. There must be no more capitulation to sentimental anecdotes
and trite phrases about being a nation of immigrants. We are a nation
of immigrants, but that does not mean we are obliged to abandon
the Constitutional Republic we love to waves of new immigrants whose
dominant political philosophies are foreign and threatening to our
own. Intelligent compassion does not require our own destruction.
Our freedom and liberties were bought at too dear a price to put
them in thoughtless jeopardy. Strong conviction must replace excessive
fear of the liberal media. Common sense patriotism and love of our
own country and culture require no apologies. Alexander the Great
once remarked that the people of Asia are slaves because they did
not learn to pronounce the word, "No." The survival of
our Republic now depends on a resolute, "No," to amnesty
for illegal aliens and to Ted Kennedy's 1965 Immigration Act. Ring
the bridge before it is too late; ice field dead ahead! Let
the President and the leaders of the Republican Party hear and take

    22, 2001

    M. Scruggs [send him mail]
    is a former Republican county chairman.

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