Has President Donald Trump Finally Capitulated to the Iranians?

By
The Unz Review

June 23, 2026

Over the last few weeks I’d been paying less and less attention to our continuing Iran War mostly because less and less seemed to be happening.

The Coup: 1953, the CI... Abrahamian, Ervand Check Amazon for Pricing. Every few days President Donald Trump would loudly announce that a peace agreement was about to be signed that would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic. Then a couple of days later he would invariably declare that he was instead about to launch a massive bombing attack against Iran, sometimes even doing so in very limited fashion and afterward suffering some retaliatory strikes by Iranian missiles and drones. Next, Trump would explain that he had called off his huge planned attack because a peace agreement was on the very verge of signing, thereby restarting that same cycle over again.

Almost all of these statements by Trump were treated with great seriousness by many or most of our leading mainstream media outlets, usually including the New York Times.

Trump’s regular declarations that peace was at hand were always strongly promoted by Barak Ravid, the chief Middle East correspondent of Axios, and then widely echoed across the rest of the media. But as journalist Glenn Greenwald emphasized, Ravid was an Israeli who had formerly worked in his country’s intelligence service, raising serious doubts about his sincerity.

Last week Trump once again announced that he and the Iranians were very close to an agreement. This finally prompted CNN to broadcast an amusing montage of all the past Trump statements along similar lines stretching back to April, with Anderson Cooper reckoning that they now totaled around 39 in number. All of those instances had been interspersed with Trump’s bombing attacks or at least his threats along such lines.

After the tenth or twentieth such declaration by Trump, I’d generally stopped paying much attention. On a couple of occasions, I’d been gullible enough to actually fall for his patter, and once I realized that I’d been tricked, I was sufficiently humiliated that I subsequently became more cautious.

But even as I disregarded Trump’s unreliable statements, I carefully waited for the global supply of oil to run low, which I felt sure would eventually force America to the bargaining table. I’d originally estimated that the world might reach that energy cliff some time in May, but I’d been proven wrong. Instead, various knowledgeable commodities experts predicted that the crunch would probably arrive in July, as the world’s stockpiles approached “tank bottom.” Given the looming danger of a collapse of the global economy, I hardly regarded a few weeks one way or the other as being too significant.

Surprisingly enough, Trump’s regular statements that the Iranians were about to fully reopen the Persian Gulf waterway to oil tanker traffic were almost always followed by a significant drop in crude oil prices, sometimes a large one. I thought that even the dimmest and most gullible oil trader would have stopped reacting in such absurdly Pavlovian fashion after the twelfth or fifteenth time that they’d been tricked. So this tended to support my suspicion that these seemingly inexplicable pricing reactions came because the oil markets were actually dominated by mindless AI trading systems, as I’d originally suggested in May. Iran’s Grand Str... Nasr, Vali Check Amazon for Pricing.

Another possibility might be that these seemingly irrational movements in oil prices were explained by the AI systems that apparently control 70% of daily trading on the markets. Perhaps these regularly reacted to Trump’s unreliable statements merely based upon their expectations of how all the other AI trading systems would react.

Whether or not that was actually the case, it seemed rather obvious that one or more individuals with advance knowledge of Trump’s statements or the Axios articles promoting them were taking advantage of that information in options markets, sometimes earning hundreds of millions of dollars in what certainly seemed like insider trading. So although those 39 false alarms might have left a president or a publication looking a little foolish, the enormous quantity of unearned wealth that someone was making probably explained why the game continued.

For these reasons, when Trump once again declared last week that he was about to sign an agreement with the Iranians, I mostly ignored him. After all, 39 times bitten, 40th time shy. But to my considerable surprise, our president actually happened to be telling the truth this time, and on Friday he signed a very preliminary “Memorandum of Understanding” with the Iranians, with the White House distributing the video clip.

In the days after the announcement but prior to the actual signing, various preliminary or distorted versions of the text had begun floating around on the Internet, presumably leaked in order to manipulate the political or media reactions. Probably as a consequence, Trump Administration officials then used a conference call to provide the actual text to reporters from the New York Times and other top media outlets, which these latter then published.

The full wording was quickly distributed by other publications, and I’m providing the text below, bolding those elements that I and many others found the most striking:

  • Paragraph 1

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this M.O.U. declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain [from] the threat or use of force against each other and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.’

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

  • Paragraph 3

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.

  • Paragraph 4

Immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of prewar traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

  • Paragraph 5

Upon the signing of this M.O.U., the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

  • Paragraph 6

The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least U.S.D. 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

  • Paragraph 7

The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, I.A.E.A. Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them. The Israel Lobby and U... Walt, Stephen M. Check Amazon for Pricing.

  • Paragraph 8

The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled, enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in Paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the I.A.E.A. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on the statutory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned, and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiation in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

  • Paragraph 9

Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

  • Paragraph 10

The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., and until the termination of sanctions, U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

  • Paragraph 11

The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this M.O.U. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

  • Paragraph 12

The United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this M.O.U. and the future compliance of the final deal.

After signing this M.O.U. and subject to the beginning of the implementation of Paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this M.O.U., and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

  • Paragraph 14

The final deal will be endorsed by a binding U.N.S.C. resolution.

When I read the document I was shocked that the terms were so extremely favorable to Iran. Indeed, the agreement seemed so lopsided that it represented a complete American capitulation to the country that we had massively attacked less than four months earlier.

Only two significant commitments were required of the Iranians. They promised neither to procure nor develop nuclear weapons, merely reiterating something that they had already repeatedly declared for decades. And they would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to cargo traffic, agreeing not to charge fees for the first sixty days.

So Iranian policies returned to the pre-war situation, except that they planned to permanently charge substantial fees for any cargo vessels using the vital strategic waterway that they now totally controlled.

Meanwhile, the concessions made by the American side were breathtaking, and included most of the Iranian wish-list.

In the very first paragraph, America repeatedly declared that it and its allies would “immediately and permanently” terminate all military operations in Lebanon and fully respect “the territorial integrity and sovereignty” of that country. This would obviously require an immediate end to all of Israel’s recent actions regarding Lebanon, including the invasion and occupation of that country, the countless bombing attacks against Beirut and other Lebanese cities, and the planned annexations.

Over the years and the decades, America had regularly sought to undermine and overthrow the Islamic Republic and destroy the Iranian economy, but we now promised to permanently end any such future interference.

Upon signing, America agreed to immediately begin lifting its naval blockade, fully ending it within 30 days. This would allow the large backlog of Iranian tankers to carry their accumulated oil to their customers in China and the rest of the world, earning many billions of dollars for the Islamic Republic, while all goods could once again be freely imported. America would also remove its forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days of the final agreement.

America and its regional partners agreed to develop a plan for providing a $300 billion fund for the reconstruction and development of Iran, offering all the necessary licenses and waivers, and finalizing that effort within 60 days. Much of that $300 billion reconstruction fund would presumably come from America’s wealthy but fearful Gulf Arab allies, and according to a source quoted by Reuters, more than half of that huge sum had already been committed. I was shocked that Trump was willing to fully endorse such a gigantic financial windfall for the country that we had long demonized. The Death of the West:... Patrick J. Buchanan Best Price: $2.12 Buy New $12.46 (as of 06:40 UTC - Details)

Since the fall of the Shah nearly a half-century ago, America had always been deeply hostile to the Islamic Republic, subjecting it to waves of economic sanctions, and these had been raised to crippling levels during Trump’s first term. But the Trump Administration now agreed to terminate all of these, both those unilaterally imposed by our own government and those endorsed by various international bodies, while also promising not to impose any new sanctions nor to deploy any additional military forces to the region. Immediately upon signing, the American government would issue waivers for all Iranian exports of oil and other petroleum products and all associated banking, insurance, and transportation services, making it easy for Iran to sell its products into all world markets.

America would immediately make fully available all of Iran’s frozen or restricted financial assets and funds, which Iran could then use in any way it so chose.

The Times had published a heavily annotated version of the text, and its journalists had made many of these same points.

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Ron Unz, publisher of The American Conservative, served as chairman of English for the Children, the nationwide campaign to dismantle bilingual education. He is also the founder of RonUnz.org
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