The MoU – A Small Pause in a Decades Long Conflict

The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed upon a Memorandum of Understanding which is supposed to end the current hostilities between the country.

A MoU is non binding. No text has been published and public remarks on either side hint that there are different interpretation of what the various clauses of the MoU are supposed to mean.

The agreement, if it survives that long, is supposed be signed in Switzerland on Friday. The Daily Stoic: 366 M... Hanselman, Stephen Best Price: $8.99 Buy New $13.79 (as of 04:07 UTC - Details)

Until about the last minute Iran was not willing to sign on to it. There was, and is, political opposition in Iran against an agreement with the U.S.  Iran, it is argued, is in an advantageous position. It could and should demand more than it is supposed to get under the MoU.  Without knowing the details of the social-economic situation in Iran it is hard to judge if that is true.

Last Friday, Mehr News Agency published a 14 point draft of the MoU. This Iranian draft version included:

1. Permanent and immediate end to war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
2. US commitment to non-interference in Iran’s internal affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
3. Complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.
4. US commitment to withdraw its forces from around Iran.
5. Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, under Iranian arrangements.
6. Suspension of sanctions on oil and petrochemical product sales and derivatives, and full Iranian access to its financial resources.
7. …

Points 2., 3., 6., are straight out of the 1981 Algier Accords which had ended the Iranian hostage crisis. Under that agreement the U.S. had committed to not intervene politically or militarily in Iranian internal affairs and to remove the freeze on Iranian assets and sanctions on Iran. The U.S. started to break those commitments as soon as the Accord had been signed.

While Iran, on Sunday afternoon local time, was still arguing about signing the MoU, Israel, in an attempt to sabotage the agreement, launched an attack on Beirut in Lebanon. Iran immediately pulled back from the MoU. It announced retaliation strikes against Israel proper.

President Trump, who was very eager to get the MoU signed, had to make additional concessions to get the agreement back on track:

1. The addition of the phrase “guaranteeing the sovereignty and respect for the territorial integrity of Lebanon” to Article One of the memorandum; (US President Donald Trump had not accepted the inclusion of this phrase in earlier drafts). 101 Blessings For a Ma... Christian Art Gifts Check Amazon for Pricing.

2. The addition of the phrase “administration of maritime navigation services in the Strait of Hormuz” by Iran and Oman to Article 5 of the memorandum;

3. Exempting vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz from paying fees for a period of 60 days; (Iran intends to begin charging ships for services after that period).

The source also emphasized that Trump had insisted that immediately after the announcement of the understanding, the Strait of Hormuz should open and the blockade should end simultaneously; however, Iran did not accept this proposal, and it was agreed that the process of reopening the Strait of Hormuz would begin after the signing of the memorandum on Friday.

Trump also publicly condemned Israel’s Prime Minster Netanyahoo for launching the attack on Lebanon. Iran called off its retaliation strikes.

Trump has announced that the U.S. sea blockade against Iran has been lifted. After the MoU is signed on Friday Iran will lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will also receive at least a part of its money the U.S. had frozen. After 30 days a 60 days long discussion will start about the dilution of highly enriched Uranium within Iran in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

I find it hard to believe that the discussions will lead to anything.

It is difficult to foresee what will follow in September after they fail. Trump will not want to bomb Iran just two months before the mid-term elections. Iran will be reluctant to again block the Strait of Hormuz. That makes it likely that the conflict will stay unresolved and continue to simmer.

Has Iran won the conflict so far? Not really. The damage it has incurred is huge. There is no guarantee that the war will not restart any minute. The economic stranglehold of sanctions has not, and likely will not be removed.

But the MoU affirms that none of the U.S. war aims have been achieved. Iran’s sovereign rights to continue the enrichment of Uranium has been acknowledged. Its ballistic missile forces will not be curtailed. Its relation with Hizbullah and other aligned forces have been strengthened and will continue. The Arab Gulf countries are moving away from their U.S. protector and overlord and are seeking better relations with Iran. ESV Church Bible (Hard... ESV Bibles Check Amazon for Pricing.

Most importantly Iran has gained the right to control the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump was eager to get the MoU signed because the loss of oil supplies due to the blockade of the Strait will soon have an immensely negative impact on the U.S. and global economy.

Even if the restrictions on the Strait are removed it will take three to six months for oil supplies to come back to previous levels.  But any further aggression, most likely from Israel, can reignite the conflict and reinstate a blockade.

The danger of sudden supply problems, and associated price spikes, has not (yet) been removed.

Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.

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