Recently several administration official who were working on China and Ukraine policies announced to step back or retire. The people in question were not neo-conservative China hawks like Secretary of State Anthony Blinken or National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. The unexpected loss of top sane hands has me concerned that there is some big move in planning that will damage U.S. relations with China and Russia even more than they already are:
The head of a new US State Department unit tasked to coordinate efforts aimed at countering Beijing plans to step down next month, the department’s second high-ranking official with a China portfolio to announce a departure in less than two weeks.
Rick Waters, head of the State Department’s recently created Office of China Coordination, and known informally as its “China House”, will leave the position just six months after it was established to manage what Secretary of State Antony Blinken called “the scale and the scope of the challenge” posed by the country.
The career State Department official will “rotate out” of the unit and the Office of Taiwan Coordination on June 23 “as part of the Department’s normal summer transition process,” according to a State Department spokesman.
There was no reason given why Waters was moved aside. This comes shortly after an even more important figure suddenly decided to retire:
The announcement about Waters followed news of US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman’s retirement earlier this month.
Sherman, the highest-ranking State Department official from the Biden administration to have travelled to China, has been an instrumental member of US President Joe Biden’s efforts to build an Indo-Pacific strategy that offers an alternative to China’s economic influence and expanding military presence there.
Sherman was a hard nosed negotiator but had a realist view on issues:
Before she was appointed Deputy Secretary of State, Wendy Sherman had pushed for a swift return to the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). She urged the Biden administration to immediately begin consultations with Europe, Russia and China on preserving the JCPOA after taking office. “It’s important for the U.S. to start its consultations as quickly as a new administration can,” Sherman said at Johns Hopkins University on November 19, 2020.
Another important figure will soon leave from a top Pentagon role:
The Defense Department’s top policymaker plans to resign, according to three U.S. officials familiar with the decision.
Colin Kahl, who has been undersecretary of defense for policy since April 28, 2021, is likely to leave in the summer, the officials said.
The officials, who asked not to be named, said Kahl plans to return to the private sector, most likely to Stanford University, where he was a professor and fellow before he joined the Biden administration.
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Before his time at Stanford, Kahl was national security adviser to then-Vice President Joe Biden from October 2014 until January 2017. During the Obama administration, he was also a policy official at the Pentagon.
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Two years ago Kahl faced a tough confirmation battle to become the No. 3 civilian at the Pentagon, in part because of his critical comments about Republicans on social media when he worked in the private sector. Republicans also criticized his involvement in the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran known as the JCPOA and his other policy views about the Middle East.
Kahl was also known for opposing escalation of the U.S. proxy war with Russia:
Kahl has also been one of the administration’s top officials making the case against sending U.S.-made F-16 jets to Ukraine, which has been a point of contention between the Biden administration and lawmakers, both Democrats and Republicans.
Despite a plea from Kyiv for more advanced jets, Kahl has argued sending F-16s would take years and cost billions of dollars, while noting fighters aren’t Ukraine’s most immediate need.
China hawks had rallied against Kahl’s position on China:
In an interview with Defense News this week, Kahl offered extraordinary overconfidence that China will not attempt an invasion of Taiwan within the next two years and likely far further into the future. This bears note because U.S. military and intelligence officials increasingly do believe that Xi is likely to order an invasion before this decade is out, possibly before 2027. Their assessment is vested in intelligence reporting and comprehensive political and military analysis.
Kahl, however, is unconcerned.
Kahl announced his departure from the Pentagon shortly before Biden elevated a China hawk to the top position of the U.S. military:
President Biden is nominating Gen. Charles “C.Q.” Brown Jr. to serve as the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the president is expected to announce Thursday in a White House Rose Garden ceremony.
Brown is currently the Air Force chief of staff.
The position is the nation’s highest-ranking military officer, and the chairman is the primary military adviser to the president, as well as to the defense secretary and National Security Council.
Gen. Brown had previously commanded the U.S. Air Force in the Pacific region. He is known for seeing China as the top U.S. enemy:
Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. in his keynote address said China’s People’s Liberation Army has the largest aviation forces in the Indo-Pacific and the largest conventional missile capability in the world, and is actively fielding hypersonic missiles. China also is establishing bases around the globe, often in places where the U.S. already has a presence.
China has said its armed forces will be fully modernized by 2035 and “world class by 2050,” said Brown, who noted that “China continues to move its modernization timelines left at a rate of change that is outpacing the United States.”
“The day after the last C-17 left Kabul, I was in the Indo-Pacific where a graver threat is manifesting, where the risk and stakes are high,” Brown said. “We must move with a sense of urgency today in order to rise to the challenges of tomorrow, because the return to strategic competition is one of our nation’s greatest challenges. Strategic competition may not be as stark or obvious as a 9/11-like event, but it can be just as catastrophic. We cannot wait for a catastrophic crisis, whether it be sudden or insidious, to drive change for the Air Force and the Joint Force. If we do, it will be too late.”
I think that all these moves are somewhat related. Wendy Sherman and Colin Kahl have known each other throughout their careers. Both of them cooperate with each other while serving in several Democratic administrations. It is hard to believe that did not talk to each other about stepping down.
But still I find none of the usual background pieces in foreign policy media that connects these moves or would explain the issues involved. Can they find no one who wants to talk about this?
Or is it just me seeing things that ain’t there because I fear that the Biden administration is preparing for even more escalatory policies?
Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.
