Amid the ongoing Ukrainian crisis, multiple U.S. and defense officials have told the press that the Biden administration is in the final stages of selecting military units for deployment to Eastern Europe. The U.S. accuses Russia of planning to invade Ukraine, despite threats of heavy reprisals, while Moscow insists on guarantees that there would be no further eastward expansion of NATO.
But despite this bellicose development, reading between the lines of the Jan. 21 meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Geneva, Switzerland, suggests that there will be no war.
From the outset Lavrov said he did not expect “a breakthrough,” while for his part Blinken pledged a “united, rapid and severe” response if an invasion does take place. Moscow is also calling for the withdrawal of foreign NATO troops and nuclear missiles from former Warsaw Pact member-states. The U.S. will present a formal written response to those demands next week, but it is unlikely to accept them.
The two sides have agreed, however, to continue the talks after Washington’s response is delivered. This is an encouraging development since no further high-level meetings had been on the agenda before the meeting in Geneva. Blinken suggested the creation of a framework for deescalation, while Lavrov did not exclude the possibility of a summit meeting between presidents Biden and Putin, albeit after thorough preparation.
There was another potentially positive development. After the talks Blinken said that he also discussed Iran with Mr. Lavrov, warning there was only a brief window to bring talks to save the 2015 Iran nuclear deal to a successful conclusion. Interestingly, he added that the deal was an example of how Moscow and Washington can work together on security issues and urged Russia to use its influence and relationship with Iran to impress upon Tehran the sense of urgency. It is not common in diplomatic talks between intransigent adversaries to suggest some areas of joint action on security issues which fall outside the main focus of the talks.
The possibility of a softer line from Washington was also apparent in President Biden’s remarkable statement during the long press conference on Jan. 19. He had predicted Russia would move against Ukraine, but suggested there was a split within NATO on how to respond if Moscow took action that stopped short of an all-out invasion.
