“Everything is on fire” – Heraclitus (535-475 BC)
What Heraclitus meant was that the world is in a constant state of flux. But the big problem in the next few years is that the world will experience a fire of a magnitude never seen before in history.
I have in many articles and interviews pointed out how predictable events are (and people). This is particularly true in the world economy. Empires come and go, economies boom and bust and new currencies come and without fail always go. All this happens with regularity.
A GLOBAL FIRE IS COMING
But at certain times in history, the fire will be cataclysmic. And that is where the world is now.
Explosive fires have started everywhere already. Stock markets are on fire and so are property markets, as well as bond and debt markets. The problem is that fires are initially explosive but always end up implosive.
So right now we are in the explosive phase of the fires with markets all going parabolically exponential or should it be exponentially parabolic!
We are now at the end of a secular bull market in the world economy which on a global level has reached extremes never seen before in history.
Never before has the world seen an explosive fire of this magnitude, fuelled by uber-profligate money printing and credit expansion by central and commercial banks.
We have talked about inflation running wild and it is not just happening in stocks. Property markets are literarily exploding, especially the high end. We see this all over the world and not just in the US. In the UK for example, HSBC stated that March saw the highest number of mortgages EVER issued. In Sweden properties sell for up to 40% above asking price in a frenzied bidding war and second hand leisure boats are in such demand that they cost virtually the same as a new boat. And if you want a new boat, there is none available until 2022. It also seems that people are desperate for company after the lockdowns as prices for puppies in the UK are up to 100% higher than last year.
Yes, everything is really on fire as people are desperate to just spend, spend, spend after a year of lockdowns and restrictions.
AN ECONOMIC BUBBLE OF AIR
But explosive fires always end in everything burning down or imploding eventually. And this is just what is going to happen in the next few years. A massive forest fire is not just totally inevitable but is also an absolute necessity.
Because economic bubbles consist primarily of air and lots of it.
When empires or countries run out of money all they have to replace it is air to keep the economy going. The air consists of false promises combined with lots of air in the form of fake money.
Since air is free, governments can produce unlimited amounts of it. And without exception, gullible people want to believe that it is actually real money and not just empty air. The beauty for the government is that they can just produce and borrow trillions of dollars at ZERO cost. And by manipulating interest rates they can borrow this money also at virtually ZERO cost.
THE ULTIMATE OF ALL PONZI SCHEMES
So first the government manufactures the money at no cost and then they pay NOTHING for the privilege of borrowing that money. This is the ultimate of all Ponzi schemes.
No wonder that bank(er)s, hedge funds and wealthy investors are raking it in.
The money obviously creates massive bubbles in stocks, bonds, houses, used cars , boats, puppies and other massively overvalued investments and consumer items.
Just look at how, for example, the Dow has gone up exponentially and parabolically in the last year in an historically unprecedented straight line.
THE US IS BANKRUPT
But let’s face it, the US is totally bankrupt. With less than a handful of exceptions, US federal debt has gone up every year since 1930.
So here we have the biggest economy in the world which can only hold on to this position by printing itself to a false prosperity at an ever faster pace.
Just look at the table below to understand what a government can create out of thin air.
After the Gold window was closed in 1971, US federal and total debt as well as money supply has gone Exponentially Parabolic and the dollar, the world’s reserve currency has lost 98%.
US Federal Debt up 74X
Total US debt up “only” 49X
M2 Money Supply up 29X>
Debt to GDP 1971: 37% – 2021: 127%
But like all exponential curves of a big sample, this one will end in tears. Bubbles are called bubbles because they consist of air. And when bubbles become too big, they ALWAYS and without fail burst and implode.
And this is what the US economy as well as the rest of the world can expect next.
Fundamentally, US and global stocks are massively overvalued. But we know that overvaluations can last longer than we expect, especially when you are talking about the end of a very long super-cycle which could be 300 years old or even 2,000 years old.
Technically markets are giving very clear signals that THE END IS NIGH.
Whether that means days weeks or a few months, is totally irrelevant. We know that we are at the end of the most remarkable period in history in regards to money, investments and the economy.
Also socially, morally and politically we are reaching a low point in history.