Crucial Provisional Ballots: Why Pennsylvania (and This Election) Isn’t Over

There’s big news breaking here in Pennsylvania, and most of the national media seems to be unaware. It’s the matter of Pennsylvania’s crucial (but heretofore largely ignored) provisional ballots, which could be decisive in pushing Donald Trump back into the lead in the state, or at least triggering a statewide recount.

Before considering those details, I want to respond to the many inquiries I’ve received from readers wondering how it’s possible that Joe Biden could have pulled into the lead in Pennsylvania. It’s an excellent question, and they’re right to be dubious of what has transpired.

If It’s Not Clos... Hugh Hewitt Best Price: $1.35 Buy New $8.99 (as of 03:48 UTC - Details) Yes, Joe Biden has somehow surpassed Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, but don’t blame voters in Pittsburgh, nor maybe even voters in Philadelphia. Frankly, it’s hard to figure who to blame. It’s somewhat baffling. Of those mail-in ballots that started to be counted on Wednesday, and that allowed Joe Biden an astonishing comeback after being down to Donald Trump by a massive (and seemingly insurmountable) margin of roughly a half million votes, Biden would have needed probably at least 80% of those remaining mail-in ballots. That was my own estimate, which I wrote about here on Thursday. Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien estimated on Wednesday afternoon that Biden would have to get 78% of outstanding votes to win Pennsylvania. He noted (as I did) that while there were outstanding votes in Biden counties like Philadelphia and Montgomery, there were also many votes left in York, Butler, and various Trump counties. Stepien thus confidently asserted, “we are declaring a victory in Pennsylvania.” So did Donald Trump, and understandably so.

Personally, I do not see how Joe Biden could have gotten that 80%, even as mail-in ballots have in fact been significantly favorable to Biden throughout the country. Consider this striking number: Biden was actually barely getting 80% in Philadelphia County. Indeed, Trump still has almost 20% of the Philadelphia County votes (that’s surprisingly good, I thought he’d be lucky to get 10%). He also has nearly 40% of Allegheny County (Pittsburgh’s county) votes. Many of the other mail-in counties remaining were Republican-Trump counties, including my own (Mercer County, where Trump has 62% of the vote) and counties like Beaver (huge fracking area, 58% for Trump) and even large GOP counties like York (likewise 62% for Trump). (Click here for the county breakdown.)

And yet, as we’ve watched the overall Pennsylvania vote flip to Biden over the last 72 hours, it’s as if Donald Trump hasn’t gotten even a few hundred thousand new votes, whereas Biden’s total soars by the millions. I think Joe Biden would have been lucky to get 60-70% of all the remaining mail-in ballots. I find it almost inconceivable that he got 80%. THE HAMMER is the Key ... Jones, Alan Buy New $4.99 (as of 08:40 UTC - Details)

Donald Trump is right to be suspicious, and to at least demand double-checking, given not just Philadelphia’s ugly history of political corruption, and his suspicion of the general susceptibility for mail-in-ballot fraud, but given the implausibility of what has happened in Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign was absolutely justified in believing it had Pennsylvania in the bag (see my column on that). What has somehow transpired since late Tuesday night does not seem plausible.

Consider, too: Donald Trump has 400,000 more votes in Pennsylvania in 2020 than he received in 2016, and yet he may still lose the state. The enthusiasm for Trump here is off the charts, in contrast to no enthusiasm for Biden. If Joe Biden has truly received that many votes in Pennsylvania, then it must be via pure, unbridled, ferocious anti-Trump hatred.

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