Not very long ago, President Trump tweeted, “We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself.”  He was pilloried for daring to suggest that government action with respect to the coronavirus pandemic has both benefits and costs.  Now he appears to be “all-in” on the national lockdown and more in sync with “expert” opinion and the big blue-state governors.

Given that we don’t possess the luxury of hindsight, we don’t know if this is the correct move or not.  But what’s indisputable is that this approach to a pandemic is unprecedented in America.

Recently, Manhattan’s City Journal published the reflections of Clark Whelton, a former speechwriter for New York City mayors Ed Koch and Rudy Giuliani, who remembered living through the pandemic of 1957, known at the time by the politically incorrect label “the Asian Flu.”  The virus was responsible for the deaths of over a million people worldwide and 116,000 in the United States (which at the time had about half the current population).  And, yet, as Whelton recalls: Crisis and Leviathan: ... Robert Higgs Best Price: $7.96 Buy New $7.42 (as of 05:25 UTC - Details)

[T]o the best of my knowledge, governors did not call out the National Guard, and political panic-mongers did not blame it all on President Eisenhower. College sports events were not cancelled, planes and trains continued to run, and Americans did not regard one another with fear and suspicion, touching elbows instead of hands. We took the Asian flu in stride. We said our prayers and took our chances.

One can speculate as to why two different eras produced such differences in reaction.  There was no internet then, no 24-hour cable news networks, and no social media.  And you had an adult population for whom the Great Depression was a clear and vivid memory.

This all brings to mind an old book that now seems suddenly relevant — Crisis and Leviathan by economic historian Robert Higgs.  In the book, which is subtitled “Critical Episodes in the Growth of Government,” Higgs introduced a key concept that he called “the ratchet effect.”  He noted that the power of government grows during times of crisis, such as war or national depression.  Higgs observed that once the crisis passes, the newly acquired power of the State doesn’t recede back to its original level.  Thus, each crisis leaves the government more powerful than before.  As Higgs explained:

After the ideological transformation that took place during the Progressive Era, each genuine crisis has been the occasion for another ratchet toward Bigger Government.

Politicians on both sides have recognized this.  Ronald Reagan once stated that “nothing lasts longer than a temporary government program.”  And Rahm Emanuel famously stated that “you never let a serious crisis go to waste.”

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