ISIS is getting most of the Sunni tribes and areas North and East of Baghdad to join them in a new nation-state. The Sunni are doing so, partly because ISIS is a powerful guerrilla army, but also because they want to be free from Shia Baghdad, just as the Kurds are north of them in Kurdestan creating their own independent nation-state.
The Media keep saying ISIS is conquering new areas and marching toward Baghdad. The truth is obvious that they are conquering units of the erstwhile Iraqi Shia government which are still in Sunniland territory. The Sunni are mopping them up and the Sunni in the old Iraqi units are deserting to join their fathers and brothers against Baghdad.
This will hurt Shialand by seizing oil in the North, but the Shia have oil in the South in Shialand.
ISIS and the Sunni more generally are building their new nation-state of Sunniland, whatever they call it.
They may go on to attack Shialand by trying to seize Baghdad, but I doubt it.
They are not powerful enough to defeat Moqtada al-Sadra’s newly formed Mahdi Army and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards coming to the aid of their brother Shia.
I expect they will work to consolidate their new state of Sunniland and only do major guerrilla attacks against the Shia if the Shia or U.S. attack them.
ISIS may be able to join areas of Syria they now control to their Iraqi controlled areas to create a bigger Sunniland. But I think it more likely Hizbollah and the Syrian government will finally prevent that.
Of course, they may be such extreme Holy Warriors on fire with bloodlust, the ecstasy of victory and blinding hubris that they will move fast to try to conquer Shialand, or sweep around them to conquer Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Yemen, etc.
I think the conquest of Saudi Arabia makes far more sense for them because of the vast support they would get from the Sunni people dominant in all of those states except Bahrain. They can unite with al-Queda in Yemen, etc., and all real Sunni will be ecstatic to get rid of the totally corrupt Saudi monarchs and UAE oligarchs.
Of course, the U.S. might intervene in a major way to stop that, but, if the U.S. commits vast forces to destroy ISIS in Saudi Arabia, ISIS can destroy the Persian Gulf oil facilities and major basins and retreat to Sunniland and dig in while the E.U. and U.S. implode from skyrocketing oil prices.
In the longer run there will be great tensions that can erupt into major wars among the Sunni Turks, the Sunni Kurds, the Syrian forces both Shia and Sunni, the Shia Iranians, the Shia of Shialand, etc. This is very fluid, as they say, very complex and rapidly changing, very dangerous.
But in the short run I think accepting the mutual secession of the three nations of erstwhile Iraq into three states and working to stabilize that situation is obviously the smart play. Yes, there will be great problems, and small nations of many kinds still will be victims, but those problems can be dealt with later. Begin with the beginning, the first crucial step–divorce of the major, incompatible nations from the failed state.
The whole world is still suffering terribly from the insane absurdities of the legacies from centuries of Western imperialism that hobbled together all kinds of crazy quilt states from ancient nations that do not want to be married in perpetuity.
STATE DIVORCE is vastly better in producing peace in these hundreds of awful situations than individual divorces that split children between loved parents. We see this over and over again today and throughout history.
The same is obviously true in the Ukraine and the U.K. and on and on around the world. We need to finally clean out the awful legacies of centuries of Western imperialism.
Millions of U.S. family members and vets will feel a terrible sense of having been deceived and betrayed by the U.S. Empire in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, etc., just as millions of others were in Vietnam. But lying and betraying more millions for nothing but worse losses is utterly absurd. Honor your dead and wounded, salve your losses, cry for all the millions of victims of the U.S. Empire, but do the sane and right thing now, move on, cut your losses and build a better world for yourselves and all of us.