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China and commodities bull Jim Rogers thinks the economy is going to eventually run out of gas by 2012. While he doesn’t call this a double dip, he does say that the next time it’s going to be worse because we’ve shot all of our bullets. With zero interest rates and huge government deficits all around, policy options are definitely more limited.
As for currencies, he sees weakness all around because of the ‘liquidity seeking return’ mentality in which stock markets are buoyed by easy money. The interesting thing is he claims he hasn’t bought any shares since November 2008 except in China. Rogers is a value investor, not a market timer like his former colleague George Soros; so he seems to be saying he is willing to forgo the 70% run-up in shares we have witnessed in the past year because of his fundamental bias.
He doesn’t sound too pessimistic about the US housing market, though. He notes the inventory overhang, but doesn’t predict a major selloff in prices. He just thinks it will be a long time before a sustained increase in house prices can resume.
Video below. It runs 4:33.
Also see the Bloomberg video Rogers Says He Holds u2018Massive’ Short Positions on Euro for his view on the Greek sovereign debt crisis.
Reprinted from Seeking Alpha.