In the investment world, it is a well-known axiom that the trend is your friend (until it reverses). This phrase has been around for hundreds of years and contains a lot of horse sense. Only an academic could truly posit that anything controlled by human behavior is a so-called "random walk." The tendency of humans to herd is well documented and proven. To those in the know about investing, the concept of trend uniformity is well known and to bet against a well-established trend is folly. Yet all trends go too far and then reverse. The trick is to know when they have reversed. I would submit that in the 20th and 21st centuries Statism has been a prevailing trend versus the Individual. Economies of scale and the need for large teams to accomplish big projects drove us in that direction in spite of our agrarian roots. But I sense a change of trend. I believe that the support for Dr. Ron Paul is a function of the fact that he is sitting on top of an enormous new trend: Individuals versus Big Organizations or Individuals versus the State. I am long Individuals and short the State.
The signs are everywhere. The State is failing. It could not protect us from 9-11, it could not protect New Orleans from Katrina. It absorbs over 50% of our human labor in the form of taxes. It murders innocents. It tells lies. Furthermore, it doesn't even conform to its stated mission to represent the will of the people that it governs. The most obvious and glaring example being the huge disconnect today between the will of the American People and the will of the American Politicians/Media/Elite. It is very clear that nearly 70% of the American people think that the war was a mistake. So, using deductive logic the State should stop the war. However, that is not what is happening. In spite of a promise by the Democrats to stop the war, they have folded like cheap lawn chairs. In fact, all of them (and all of the Republicans except Ron Paul) now talk about how "all options are on the table with Iran" implying that they may be willing to widen the war. Why? Because they are all part of the Statist Government Establishment that "theoretically" represent "we the people." It is a lie. Dr. Paul knows this and others are learning it quickly. If our elected representatives disobey our will then who do they represent? The answer is becoming obvious to more and more Americans. American Individuals are waking up. They are waking up to the message that we do not need Big Government or the State to control our lives. To paraphrase "V is for Vendetta," the government should fear the people…the people should not fear the government. This distinction is becoming clearer and clearer to more people. The new trend is in motion. There will be setbacks but it cannot be stopped.
Our future will be much brighter than any of us can imagine if we continue to push and support this trend.
September 10, 2007