Introduction
Introductory descriptions of the organization and National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)-producing process are the same as in the Unclassified NIE.
Key Judgments
We judge the US Homeland (By the way, who came up with that term? We feel like such schmucks every time we have to use it. Was it that woman who looks like she used to be a concentration camp guard? What is her name? Oh, yeah, Fran Townsend. We'll bet it was she.) will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years. The main threat comes from the American people waking up and discovering that we are totally incompetent and that al-Qa'ida, if they can stop laughing their asses off long enough, can just walk across our borders with Canada and Mexico.
We assess that our Keystone Kops efforts over the past five years in Afghanistan, and Iraq, and our unwillingness to secure our borders have bolstered the ability of al-Qa'ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive that we don't have a clue as to what we're doing.
- We are concerned that al-Qa'ida hasn't attacked us again because they don't need to. We're doing their work for them.
Blowback from al-Qa'ida will remain the only serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to observe our hi-jinks, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and get a good laugh for themselves.
We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safe haven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership. Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qa'ida senior leadership (mostly executives and former executives with Halliburton and the Carlyle Group) since 9/11, we judge that al-Qa'ida may intensify its efforts to put operatives here. Let's face it. Who's going to stop them? If the Border Patrol were to stop them, we'd just put the Border Patrol agents in jail. Anyone at the White House ever hear of two guys named Ramos and Campeon?
- As a result, we judge that the United States, especially this administration, is currently in a heightened threat environment as a result of our own incompetence.
We assess that al-Qa'ida will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the Homeland through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups. Of note, we assess that al-Qa'ida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland. We don't really know who these AQI guys are or where they came from. Maybe they were hiding out with Saddam Hussein's WMD (wink-nod).
We assess that al-Qa'ida's Homeland plotting is likely to continue to focus on running down to the nearest 7-11 and stocking up on snacks and drinks for the senior leadership while they watch us enhance their recruiting efforts on al-Jazeera.
We assess that al-Qa'ida is too smart to acquire and employ chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear material in attacks as they are achieving all of their goals through our own ineptitude.
We assess Lebanese Hizballah, which has conducted anti-US attacks outside the United States in the past – especially when we plunked down a boatload of Marines in their midst in support of Israel – would be more likely to consider attacking the Homeland over the next three years only if it perceived the United States as ever becoming a competent foe.
- Most importantly, we assess that the spread of radical Internet sites like LewRockwell.com and the presidential candidacy of this guy Ron Paul, will create our ultimate terrorist threat: an aroused American people ready to throw us, and our supporters in Congress, out on ear on November 4, 2008.
July 19, 2007
