U.S. Payroll Stunner, Full 'Pathetic' Jobs Report Analysis
by Mike "Mish" Shedlock
by Mike "Mish" Shedlock: Despite
Stimulus, 6 Million Benefit-Paying Jobs Vanish in One Year
on the Jobs Report
I commented things are awful at first glance and simply bad beneath
the surface. This month things took a huge turn for the worse.
ago I commented "It is very questionable if this pace of jobs keeps
up." Clearly it didn't, for the second straight disastrous month.
Certainly this cannot all be blamed on the Tsunami in Japan. The
entire global economy is slowing rapidly as I have commented numerous
projected a drop in the unemployment rate, I called for a rise to
Few were prepared
for today's grim numbers.
- US Payrolls
- Last Month
Quietly Revised Lower to +25,000 from +54,000
- US Unemployment
Unexpectedly Rises +.1 to 9.2% Despite Drop in Participation Rate
- Since March,
Number of Unemployed Rises by 545,000
Survey Number Unemployed Up 173,000
Survey Number of Employed Down 445,000
people dropped out of the labor force, reversing the labor force
gain of 272,000 last month.
Weekly Workweek Drops by .1 Hours
Manufacturing Hours Drops by .3 Hours
Private Hourly Earnings Decrease 1 Cent
- There has
been virtually no improvement in part-time employment in a full
year. 8.5+ million workers want a full time job and cannot find
the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey
not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with
the weekly claims data.
into the Household Survey, we see some more interesting data. In
the last year, the civilian population rose by 1,799,000. Yet the
labor force dropped by 263,000. Those not in the labor force rose
the labor force rose by 272,000. This month the labor force fell
by 272,000. How's that for symmetry?
labor force total for 2011 is +4,000.
Many of those
millions who dropped out of the workforce would start looking if
they thought jobs were available. Indeed, in a 2-year old recovery,
the labor force should be rising sharply as those who stopped looking
for jobs, once again started looking. Instead, the labor force is
not expanding at all.
Were it not
for people dropping out of the labor force for the past two years,
the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.
the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) June
2011 Employment Report.
employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000), and the
unemployment rate was little changed at 9.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau
of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in most major private-sector
industries changed little over the month. Government employment
continued to trend down.
Rate Seasonally Adjusted
Employment Payroll Survey Annual Look Seasonally
employment is lower than it was 10 years ago.
Employment Payroll Survey Monthly Look Seasonally
2008 and February 2010, the U.S. economy lost 8.8 million jobs.
effects of the census, in the last 9 months of a recovery 2 years
old, the economy is averaging 130,000 jobs a month. That is very
poor as recoveries go.
127,000 jobs a month is enough to keep the unemployment rate flat.
Employment Payroll Survey Details Seasonally Adjusted
Aggregate Weekly Hours
Hourly Earnings vs. CPI
hourly earnings of all private-sector employees declined by 1
cent in June to $22.99; over the year, the series has increased
- The consumer
price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) was up 3.4 percent
over the year ending in May.
Not only are
wages rising slower than the CPI, there is also a concern as to
how those wage gains are distributed.
the rest of the article
Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific
Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm
whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless
of market direction.
© 2011 Market Oracle