Afghanistan
is rightly called "the graveyard of empires." We should
call the Mideast "the tomb of peacemakers." In this
troubled part of the world, real peace is as elusive and rarely-seen
as the white Arabian gazelle.
So we observe,
with an abundance of caution, President Barack Obama’s long-awaited
Mideast peace offensive.
Many of
the administration’s biggest guns have been sent to the Mideast
in an all-out effort to get America’s squabbling allies to accept
a comprehensive regional peace deal. The only notable absence
from the American diplomatic A-team was, interestingly, Hillary
Clinton, who was left at home to make nice to a visiting Chinese
delegation.
The White
House’s big push in the Mideast is being driven in good part
by the growing danger of an Israeli attack on Iran and/or Lebanon.
Israel’s
Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, openly warned Iran of possible
military action if Tehran does not cease its nuclear program
– which UN inspectors and US intelligence still says is non-military.
Some American experts even worry Israel might use tactical nuclear
weapons against deeply buried Iranian nuclear facilities, a
cataclysm that would also contaminate Iraq, the Gulf, the oil
fields of the Arabian Peninsula, Afghanistan, and all the US
military personnel in the region.
US Defense
Secretary Robert Gates has emerged as the Obama administration’s
foreign policy strongman, eclipsing Hillary Clinton. His preeminence
confirms that the Pentagon, not the State Department, continues
to spearhead foreign policy, as was the case during the Bush
years.
Gates stood
next to Barak as the Israeli minister threatened Iran, clearly
backing Israel’s threats. Gates warned Iran it had until September
to begin talks on dismantling its nuclear energy program – or
else.
What happened
to Barack Obama, the "peace president"?
Interestingly,
the US has lived for more than half a century under the threat
of Soviet/Russian nuclear attack, and continues to do so under
a strategy known as mutually assure destruction.
The US
did not attempt to destroy the Soviet Union’s infant nuclear
forces in the mid-1950’s, not even after Soviet leader Nikita
Khrushchev threatened, "we will bury you!"
But Washington
seems to support Israel’s insistence that it cannot live under
the possible future threat of Iranian nuclear weapons, if ever
developed, even though it now has deployed an indestructible
nuclear triad and an effective, layered antimissile system.
In any
event, the intensifying power struggle in Iran’s feuding leadership
will make any nuclear talks with the Western powers extremely
difficult and uncertain.
In an unprecedented
act by an Israeli leader, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
openly defied President Obama’s request that Israel cease building
or expanding settlements on the West Bank and Golan. Netanyahu’s
defiance was a clear sign of the strength of America’s Israel
lobby and its domination of the US Congress, which allows the
Israeli tail to wag the American dog.
Israel
had became used to getting its way with the accommodating Clinton
and Bush administrations. Relations with the Obama White House
are edgy.
Netanyahu
reportedly called Obama’s two most important advisors, Rahm
Emanuel (whose father was Israeli) and David Axelrod, "self-hating
Jews" for pressing Israel to end colonization and accept
a Palestinian state. Netanyahu later denied the comment, but
the damage was done.
A key partner
in Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition, Rabbi Ovadia Josef, spiritual
leader (if he were in Iran, he’d be a Grand Ayatollah) of the
religious Shas Party, called Obama "a slave who wants to
rule the world" for urging Israel to halt settlement activity.
The pro-Likud Washington Post newspaper dropped its pretense
of impartiality and also blasted Obama over the settlement issue.
Meanwhile,
the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, America’s
powerful Israel lobby, which reflects the policies and thinking
of Netanyahu’s Likud Party, reminded Obama not to press Israel
into a peace agreement.
While running
for president, Obama promised AIPAC he would never force Israel
into an agreement it did not favor. He also vowed never to compel
Israel to share Jerusalem with a new Palestinian state, a prerequisite
to any lasting settlement. So candidate Obama effectively handcuffed
President Obama.
In a stinging
contradiction to Gates’s threats, the Pentagon’s chief, Chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen, warned any
war with Iran would be extremely dangerous. He expressed the
widely held fear among the US military that an Israeli attack
on Iran would drag the US into a war it does not want and is
not ready to fight. US forces that now ring Iran – in Iraq,
the Gulf, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia – are also
vulnerable to Iranian ground and missile attack in wartime.
In effect, they are hostages.
Mullen’s
very public warning was another important sign of the deep divisions
within the Obama administration over Iran and the Mideast.
Lost
in this fracas was the announcement by the militant Palestinian
movement, Hamas, that it would accept (though not now formally
recognize) Israel within its former 1967 borders. This was a
very important step forward as until now, Hamas has refused
to accept the very existence of Israel. In turn, Israel has
used Hamas’s refusal to avoid any open contacts with the most
authentic and popular Palestinian group.
Long-simmering
opposition to Israel’s expansionist policies among American
Jews has recently erupted into the open, spearheaded by the
new "J Street Group," which opposes the pro-Likud
AIPAC and supports Israel’s peace movement and the creation
of a Palestinian state.
Not surprisingly,
the people of "J Street" are being denounced as traitors
and "self-hating Jews" by the right-wing Israel lobby.
Compared to the 800-lb AIPAC, "J Street" is a minnow.
But this split in American Jewish ranks is very significant.
There will be no genuine peace agreement nor creation of a viable
Palestinian state until the influential American Jewish community
supports the peace plan.
But in
spite of "J Street" and other liberal Jewish groups,
Likud’s lobby is still calling most of the shots when it comes
to US Mideast policy.