Every
Crisis Becomes a Carnival of Opportunism
by
Robert Higgs
by Robert Higgs
DIGG THIS
As the financial
crisis deepens and widens, a horde of supplicants is converging
on the Treasury. Each of them has a story to tell, and although
the details differ from one upscale beggar to the next, each one's
tale of woe shares a common theme: help me or systemic risk
will bring down the whole economy, with painful losses and injuries
to one and all.
Until recently,
most people had never heard of systemic risk. It was a term of art
for economists and financial theorists. Now every lobbyist in Washington
knows how to link his special pleading to the claim that unless
he extracts his own pound of flesh from the taxpayer, the entire
world will have hell to pay. This not-so-thinly-veiled threat verges
on extortion.
Commercial
bankers have long practiced this rock-bottom-low form of politics,
relying on the undeniable fragility of fractional-reserve banking
to justify their appeals for public succor during a financial crisis.
Lately, however, various newcomers have joined the bankers in playing
this con game. In March, the Fed opened its credit window for the
first time to investment
banks. In September, it ponied up $85 billion to rescue AIG
in a de facto government takeover of the insurance giant and took
control of Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac, committing up to $100 billion to each company
to augment its capital. A little later it announced that it would
buy massive amounts of commercial
paper – thousands of firms in all sorts of industries potentially
stand to benefit from that intervention. Most recently, it has undertaken
to prop up money
market mutual funds.
The Emergency
Economic Stabilization ("Bailout") Act of 2008 makes eligible
for its $700 billion of largess, not only banks, but also savings
associations, credit unions, security brokers and dealers, and insurance
companies. As if this scope of engagement were not sufficiently
outrageous, the act stipulates that the eligible "financial institutions"
include, but are "not limited to" the ones named. Will pawn shops
be the next ones permitted to join the queue?
Exactly why
security brokers and dealers have been invited into the government's
charmed circle might seem problematic, if systemic risk must be
invoked as the rationale, but their inclusion makes perfect sense
in the light of public-choice analysis once you have become aware
of who the primary
dealers are. These institutions, a handful of companies authorized
to trade directly with the Federal Reserve System, include:
- BNP Paribas
Securities Corp
- Bank of
America Securities LLC
- Barclays
Capital Inc.
- Cantor Fitzgerald
& Co.
- Citigroup
Global Markets Inc.
- Credit Suisse
Securities (USA) LLC
- Daiwa Securities
America Inc.
- Deutsche
Bank Securities Inc.
- Dresdner
Kleinwort Securities LLC
- Goldman,
Sachs & Co.
- HSBC Securities
(USA) Inc.
- J. P. Morgan
Securities Inc.
- Merrill
Lynch Government Securities Inc.
- Mizuho Securities
USA Inc.
- Morgan Stanley
& Co. Incorporated
- UBS Securities
LLC
If you don't
see any likely suspects in the recent string of taxpayer robberies
on this list, then it's time you had your eyes checked.
As the recession
worsens, we can expect more and more firms and industries to plead
for a rescue operation at taxpayer expense. The auto companies have
already received a promise
of $25 billion from a compassionate Congress, whose members
are ever ready to injure the general public interest in the service
of a well-healed campaign contributor, especially if the beneficiary
can demonstrate that he has dreadfully mismanaged a big business.
Now that corn and soybean prices have retreated from their recent
extraordinary heights, the farmers are sure to demand that a national
farm emergency be declared so that the 17-room additions and new
tennis courts they have planned for their rural palaces can proceed
on schedule. Other interest groups will troop toward Washington
in tight formations, each with a claim that unless its demands are
met, the Good Life and the American Way will go up in flames.
Hundreds
of billions here, hundreds of billions there – pretty soon you're
talking about real money. It will be highly depreciated money, however,
because the government's bailout commitments to date, along with
its already huge budget deficit, ensure that the Fed will be flooding
the world with newly created dollars, and, other things being equal,
each one's creation reduces the purchasing power of every existing
one. So far we must contend with $700 billion authorized by the
big bailout law enacted on October 3; $85 billion for the AIG loan;
$100 billion each for Fannie and Freddie; an undetermined amount,
but potentially as much as $1,300
billion for the Commercial Paper Funding Facility; $25 billion
for the auto companies; and $540
billion for the money market mutual funds. Together, these giveaways,
all ultimately taken out of the taxpayers' hide, amount to an astonishing
$2,850 billion – a sum almost equal to total federal government
spending in the fiscal year just completed.
Of
course, most of these outlays nominally take the form of loans,
and much of the money probably will be repaid eventually. Nevertheless,
extension of the loans must be financed in any event, and in the
present circumstances, such financing is inconceivable without gigantic
expansions of central-bank credit, which require nothing but a snap
of the Fed's electronic finger. If you are not expecting a surge
in price inflation, then you need to review your economics notes.
Already we have seen an extraordinary spike in the monetary
base. After increasing fairly steadily in recent years, the
reported monthly average base leaped from $847 billion in August
to $908 billion in September – a 7.2 percent increase in a single
month! If the Fed continues to increase the monetary base at anything
near this rate for more than a few months, hyperinflation is virtually
certain to result. Yet, in view of the lending commitments already
made in the various bailout schemes, it seems likely that the Fed
will have to continue to increase the monetary base
rapidly. We therefore face the prospect of stagflation the likes
of which we have never seen before, with real output falling, unemployment
rising, and prices increasing rapidly. All of this ruin is brought
to us courtesy of the economic czars who presume to know how to
manage the economy.
Notwithstanding
this frightening prospect, we can be certain that still more interest
groups will be pressing the Treasury for their "fair share" of the
plunder, even as the economic ship continues to sink. Members of
Congress are already touting the desirability of another "stimulus"
program like the one that sent checks for as much as $1,200 to most
American families a few months ago. Somewhere in hell, John Maynard
Keynes is laughing maniacally and dancing a jig.
October
28, 2008
Robert
Higgs [send him mail] is
senior fellow in political economy at the Independent
Institute and editor of The
Independent Review. He
is also a columnist for LewRockwell.com. His
most recent book is Neither
Liberty Nor Safety: Fear, Ideology, and the Growth of Government.
He is also the author of Depression,
War, and Cold War: Studies in Political Economy, Resurgence
of the Warfare State: The Crisis Since 9/11 and Against
Leviathan: Government Power and a Free Society.
Copyright
© 2008 Robert Higgs
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