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Confessions
of a Gear Head
by
Steven Greenhut
by Steven Greenhut
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I love cars,
but I also love it when the market weeds out the lousy carmakers.
Being a libertarian,
I'm often accused of being pro-business, which is absurd. I'm a
believer in free markets, and an essential tenet of free-market
thinking is that businesses must be free to fail if they are insufficiently
responsive to the needs of the consumer. I love it when lousy businesses
fail. Unfortunately, politicians from both parties often try to
use taxpayer subsidies and government-enforced protections to help
out their favorite businesses or to keep them from falling into
the "wrong" hands.
For instance,
Missouri's Democratic senator and Republican governor both recently
tried, unsuccessfully, to use their influence to stop the sale of
St. Louis-based Anheuser-Busch to Belgian-based booze giant InBev.
Anyone who has ever tasted the flavorless pale-yellow concoctions
sold by the company known for its Clydesdale horses would be shocked
that anyone would want to buy the firm responsible for them, rather
than tar-and-feather those who ran it.
I'm interested
in beer, but passionate about automobiles. Yet even when it comes
to cars, I would in no way want the government to interfere in the
market process. Instead of worrying about the ongoing plight of
the Big Three American automobile manufacturers, I celebrate it.
Companies that have operated more like regulated utilities than
entrepreneurial organizations deserve to have tough times. Companies
that prefer bean-counters to creative managers and that mortgage
their future to give in to absurd union demands deserve to lose
market share and to face sinking stock values. Companies that care
about other things more than they care about the consumer deserve
to fail. Good riddance to them. Better companies will rise up to
fill the void, even if they are based in India or China.
"Who shot
General Motors?" asked author Roger Lowenstein in a July 10
column in The New York Times. His answer: "The immediate cause
of GM's distress, of course, is the surging price of oil, which
has put a chill on the sale of gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles
and trucks. The company's failure to invest early enough in hybrids
is another culprit. Years of poor car design is another. But none
of GM's management miscues was so damaging to its long-term fate
as the rich pensions and health care that robbed General Motors
of its financial flexibility and, ultimately, of its cash."
Toyota, which
will soon be the world's largest auto company, is concerned that
U.S. government officials will bail out the ailing Michigan-based
corporate giant. Toyota officials say they wish GM the best because
of the need for competition, but it's easy to understand the Japanese
company's real fear: political meddling that will hamper better-quality
overseas makers and politicians who will exploit nationalism with
some absurd "Buy American" campaign. But political meddling
will only reward those companies that have made the worst decisions.
Why should the government punish those companies that have done
the best to serve the auto-buying public?
GM, Ford and
Chrysler all deserve their current fate. Ford officials recently
announced that they would start designing more fuel-efficient cars.
"What we really need to do is tell people that we're back in
the car business," said Ford's president of the America's Mark
Fields, according to an Associated Press article last week. Yet
I recall Ford's smugness when it was raking in huge profits from
its mega-SUVs and full-size pick-up trucks and ignoring the automobile
side of the business.
I've got nothing
against big trucks, but I have everything against foolish corporate
officials who are incapable of anticipating market changes. Somehow,
Toyota and Honda managed to bring out new lines of smaller cars
as gas prices headed north of $4 a gallon. But don't worry, Ford
which is now losing money, and might soon face Chapter 11
will start coming up with new cars we might someday want
to buy! But it takes quite a while to bring new products to market.
Chrysler, by the way, isn't in any better shape which will
not surprise anyone who has recently looked at the firm's ungainly
offerings. As the blog, The Truth About Cars, explained, Chrysler's
plan is to "become a distributor of cars made by others. Someone.
Anyone." That may not be a bad idea, given that GM has been
introducing some critically acclaimed new models that are basically
European Opels or Australian Holdens. If you can't come up with
a good design in Detroit, you might as well go elsewhere. But corporate
innovators tend to do better over time than followers.
Part of the
problem, in my view, is that U.S. automakers cannot improve their
situation overnight because it takes a long time to create a good
reputation for long-term quality and reliability. Even if, say,
the latest Pontiac model is better than a comparable Honda, a buyer
still might go with the Honda given that brand's exceedingly high
resale values, which are a reflection of Honda's reputation for
building cars that rack up 300,000 miles. In fact, part of the domestic
automakers' current financial gloom is directly the result of their
inattention to long-term resale issues.
Last
month, Ford wrote off more than $2 billion in losses because the
residual values of its returned leased vehicles are so much lower
than predicted. With leasing, a buyer pays the difference between
the selling price and the residual value (the estimate of what it
will be worth when the lease is up) plus some financing and other
costs. Domestic manufacturers generally have worse lease deals than
imports because of lower residuals/resale values (that means you
have to pay a higher amount between the sale price and the residual),
but they have been hammered in recent months because the big SUVs
and trucks they have so long relied upon are now virtually worthless
as buyers turn them in at lease end.
It
just keeps getting worse for the Big Three. But, again, this is
good news for consumers. First, when the manufacturers can't get
rid of their cars, buyers can negotiate better deals. Just as the
subprime housing mess is a blessing for home buyers (it's only a
crisis for sellers and the banks that stupidly handed out loans
to the credit-unworthy), the falling value of domestic vehicles
is good news for anyone who still wants that Expedition or Tahoe.
Second, there's nothing like failure to force companies to change
their ways and make products that respond to the fickle consumer.
If the domestic manufacturers were government agencies or regulated
monopolies they would behave as such agencies. They would continue
to provide less-than-desirable products, offer shoddy service and
increase their prices whenever they overspent their budgets. Governments
and government-enforced monopolies can do that because consumers
have no options. GM has tried to act like a government, but it can't
ignore that the day of reckoning is coming.
The key to
capitalism is competition and the potential for failure. That's
why most carmakers keep offering more features and better products
each model year. If they don't, they will lose out to other makers.
If they don't fear failure, then they won't desperately seek to
win over the buyer. In some ways capitalism is an anti-business
philosophy, because there's nothing businesses hate more than fierce
competition and the threat of bankruptcy.
August
20, 2008
Steven
Greenhut (send him mail)
is a senior editorial writer and columnist for the Orange
County Register. He is the author of the book, Abuse
of Power. Visit his
blog.
Copyright
© 2008 Orange County Register
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