President
Barack Obama’s visit to Moscow last week raised some very important
questions about US-Russian relations and national security.
Given the
media’s constant threat-mongering, it’s easy to forget that
America’s most important national security concern is not Iran,
Iraq, al-Qaida, Taliban, Afghanistan, or North Korea, whose
unloved "Dear Leader" appears terminally ill.
It is Russia,
which has over 2,000 nuclear warheads on some 800 delivery vehicles
pointed at the United States.
Russia
holds a nuclear gun to America’s head, as America does to Russia.
The two great powers cannot and must not risk crises when nuclear
annihilation is only a button-push away.
Clearly,
Washington’s first priority is maintaining correct, civilized
relations with Moscow. That means avoiding confrontation, and
treating Russia with a large amount of respect even if we do
not like its increasingly autocratic government and gruesome
human rights record in Chechnya.
The Bush
administration put the US and Russia on a collision course by
expanding American strategic influence into the Baltic, East
Europe, Georgia and Ukraine. This violated a reported secret
agreement between former party chairman Mikhail Gorbachev and
the first President George Bush which stipulated that in exchange
for Moscow allowing its former satellites to go free, western
power would not be extended up to Russia’s borders.
Bush’s
plans for an antimissile system in the Czech Republic and Poland
(only 190 km from Russia’s border) to supposedly shoot down
Iranian nuclear-armed missiles that don’t exist was an act of
monumental stupidity and pointless belligerence. Moscow was
predictably enraged.
Last year,
the Bush administration encouraged Georgia’s not so bright leader
to invade the pro-Russian breakaway region of South Ossetia,
sparking a short, nasty Russo-Georgian conflict that brought
Washington and Moscow into dangerous confrontation. US warships
moved into the Black Sea and US military aircraft began ferrying
supplies to Georgia.
Imagine
America’s reaction if Russia began rearming Cuba and sending
warships to cruise off Miami.
President
Barack Obama says he went to Moscow last week to push what he
called the "restart" button on battered US-Russian
relations. A good decision, and badly needed. The two great
powers need just the kind of mutually respectful relations that
Obama has been advocating.
Moscow
and Washington signed another nuclear arms reduction treaty
making modest cuts in their nuclear arsenals over ten years
to 1,5001,675 warheads each – still enough to destroy civilization
three times over. Interestingly, the US’s large reserve of nuclear
warheads were not included.
The "reduction"
was a major disappointment. Neither side needs more than a few
hundred nuclear warheads. In fact, the "antiwar" Obama
should have begun seriously negotiating scrapping all nuclear
weapons rather than modest reductions. Every American president
since Dwight Eisenhower called for global nuclear disarmament,
mostly recently Barack Obama – but to no avail. Resistance from
America’s national security complex, and the difficulty of convincing
other nations to disarm thwarted their idealistic plans.
The US
and Russia are also violating the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty which called on all nuclear powers to totally eliminate
their nuclear weapons.
Obama came
away from Moscow with the Kremlin’s curious agreement to allow
the US to fly soldiers and supplies across Russian territory
to Afghanistan. Either Moscow got some serious secret payoffs
from Washington, or the Kremlin is happy to see the US sink
ever deeper into the Afghan morass.
President
Obama was politely received in Moscow by a smiling President
Dimitri Medvedev and a mostly scowling Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin. Their "good cop/bad cop" routine left everyone
wondering who was really the boss.
Obama’s
golden oratory did not move Russia’s leaders or people. Both
remained deeply skeptical of Washington’s professions of friendship
and concerned by America’s growing influence around Russia’s
borders.
A just-issued
World Public Opinion survey finds that opinion of President
Obama is generally positive on a personal level and has boosted
America’s battered image.
But 6668%
of British, French, Poles, Ukrainians, Iraqis and Egyptians
surveyed believed the US was abusing its great power. In Russia,
the result was 75%. In two key US allies, an alarming 86% in
Turkey, and 90% in Pakistan. These last two figures are very
ominous. They show intense public opposition to the pro-US policies
of these nations, a recipe for violence or even revolution.
Russia
and the Muslim world are waiting to see President Obama turn
his professions of change, friendship, and improved relations
into actions. Unfortunately, they often seem to be seeing the
opposite.
The US
is pressing ahead with the Polish/Czech missile project, still
says it wants to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, and is
expanding American strategic power into former Soviet Central
Asian Republics. In short, surrounding Russia on the strategic
chessboard. This strategy has played right into the hands of
anti-western Russian hardliners and nationalists.
Is Washington
really ready to risk a possible nuclear war with Moscow over
Georgia, Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Luhansk, Ukraine – places
very few Americans could find on a map if their lives depended
on it. Building antimissile sites on Moscow’s doorstep is a
reckless and pointless provocation. You don’t kick a man in
the shins who is holding a gun to your head.
Russians,
peoples of the Muslim world, and some Americans are wondering
if they are seeing Bushism without Bush?
Half a
century ago, President Dwight Eisenhower warned Americans about
the growing power of the military-industrial complex. Is the
updated version – the financial-military-industrial complex
– making US foreign policy no matter who is in the White House?
Hopefully
not. But, aside from the thinning of US forces in Iraq, there
has been remarkably little change of direction in US foreign
policy since Obama took office.
To many
of Moscow’s "siloviki" – the hard men of the security
complex – it’s Washington’s old "imperialist ruling circles"
still hard at work. Back at the Pentagon, there is palpable
relief that the "reds" are again running things again
in Moscow. The devils you know…