Barack
Obama says he’s happy to see his primary race with Hillary Clinton
continue right up to the bitter end. But there is deepening
worry in this overwhelmingly Democratic Party city that the
fratricidal battle between Obama and Clinton is tearing apart
the party and boosting Republican hopes of victory in November.
Obama leads
by almost every measure, but not decisively. Hillary Clinton
appears determined to fight right up to this summer’s party
convention. Many senior Democrats fear she will wreck her party’s
chances rather than gracefully withdraw. As a result of the
damage caused to the images of both Obama and Clinton by their
bitter fight, Republican candidate Sen. John McCain is now the
front-runner for president.
Republicans
are praying Clinton will defeat Obama. There are rumors Republicans
may even be secretly helping finance her campaign. Polls show
McCain would defeat Clinton, whose very high negative rating
among men more than offsets her strong support by older women
and feminists. If Clinton wins nomination through back room
deals by party super-delegates, many angry black American will
boycott the November vote, ensuring a Republican victory.
What would
McCain’s foreign policy look like? This week, he made a major
policy address in Los Angeles that gives a preview.
On the
most important issue, Iraq, McCain still insists he backs the
five-year-old war that has so far cost nearly 40,000 American
dead and wounded, and untold Iraqi casualties, and created 4
million refugees as a result of ethnic cleansing of Sunnis by
Shia militias which the US did nothing to stop.
Sen. McCain
insists US troops must stay in Iraq until it becomes a "peaceful,
stable, democratic state." Battered, strife-torn Iraq is
as far as one can get from McCain’s goal.
The Iraqi
Humpty Dumpty is broken and unlikely to be repaired. The US
occupation has caused Iraq to split into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish
mini-states. The US-installed Baghdad regime controls nothing
but the Green Zone. Real power is held by the Iranian-backed
Shia Islamic Supreme Council and its Badr militia which was
fighting across Iraq this week with the Shia Mahdi Army.
The US
created and armed Sunni militias who will one day fight their
Shia foes. The Kurdish region is independent in all but name
and is flirting with Israel. There is no real Iraq. It has ceased
to exist.
Iran now
dominates 60% of Iraq, and its power there continues to grow.
Meanwhile, the war is costing cash-strapped Washington at least
$3 billion weekly at a time when it owes China $1.3 trillion
in loans. McCain says he’s not strong in economics. He clearly
has no understanding of how much this war is costing. Latest
estimates put the bill at nearly $1 trillion by next year. This
is all borrowed money. The administration has refused to finance
the war by normal budgetary means, instead choosing emergency
allocations.
McCain
is proposing a continuation of the Bush/Cheney mess in Iraq.
The big question is, will the Bush White House stage a serious
military incident with Syria, Lebanon or Iran soon before November
elections to mobilize votes for the Republicans. There is increasing
talk in the Mideast of an Israeli attack on Syria and Lebanon,
designed to punish Hezbullah for its success in last year’s
mini-war and to boost Republican fortunes in the United States.
Senator
McCain did make a very welcome call to end Bush/Cheney’s unilateralism
and begin working with allies and international organizations.
But then he snarled at "revanchist" Russia, warned
of Moscow’s aggressive designs, and called for its eviction
from the G8 group of nations. His bellicosity is ominous. McCain
sounds like he wants to restart the Cold War – and probably
does.
McCain’s
recent Mideast trip also offered more of Bush’s policy, but
perhaps even harder line. McCain strongly supported Israel’s
expansionist rightwing parties, vowed Washington would never
pressure Israel into a peace deal it did not favor, and denounced
Saudi "autocrats." He called for their removal without
explaining who or what should replace them.
All the
while Sen. Joseph Lieberman, often called "Israel’s senator
in Washington," was whispering lines into McCain’s ear.
When McCain foolishly claimed Iran was in cahoots with al-Qaida,
Lieberman had to sort him out. Other neocons have also flocked
to McCain’s banner, meaning if he wins, any real Arab-Israeli
peace appears unlikely. Look also for possible further US military
action against Israel’s enemies.
McCain
tried to sound moderate and statesmanlike in his speech. So
did President George Bush when he first came into office, decrying
"nation building" and foreign entanglements. But a
genuine moderate statesman does not sing "bomb, bomb, bomb
Iran" in public and call for perpetual war in Iraq.