Bill Clinton to the Rescue
It's hard to think of Bill Clinton as a white knight, but last week he rescued two damsels in distress in a brilliant "coup de theatre."
North Korea's jailing of the two American female journalists who had foolishly entered their forbidden nation last March set off a remarkable chain of diplomatic events, culminating in President Bill Clinton's triumphant rescue mission to Pyongyang.
Clinton conducted himself with dignity and gravitas, making sure never to smile at the North Koreans. Even so, they were clearly thrilled — even giddy with excitement, or as giddy as grim North Koreans get — to have the former American president in their isolated nation.
After months of secret negotiations, the North Koreans made clear they would only release the captives if Clinton came to get them. During his presidency, the US and North Korea came close to normalizing relations and ending the North's nuclear program in exchange for US aid and a lifting of US-led sanctions.
But when President George Bush and his neoconservative supporters took power, they quickly sabotaged Clinton's deal with Pyongyang and began beating the war drums. North Korea was high on the neocons' target list because it was believed to be an enemy of Israel for allegedly selling missile technology to Iran, Pakistan, and certain Arab states.
The neocons are now spreading the bizarre scare story that North Korea is selling decrepit Burma (Myanmar) a reactor to supposedly make nuclear weapons. What Burma would do with nuclear weapons goes unexplained. Bomb Laos?
The American captives are safely home. But was it right to give in to North Korea's obvious diplomatic blackmail? What about abducted South Koreans and Japanese being held under horrible conditions in North Korea?
Morality says no, but common sense says yes. This case was too important to ignore.
Isolated, threadbare North Korea desperately craves recognition by the United States and end to punishing, American-led sanctions. The US insists on treating Stalinist North Korea as a pariah state.
North Korea has at least six nuclear weapons aimed at Japan and South Korea, where nearly 100,000 US military personnel are based. Washington's recent threats to stop and board North Korean merchantmen on the high seas brought the two nations to the brink of hostilities.
Add to the tensions a looming succession struggle in North Korea. During Clinton's visit, the reclusive, ailing North Korean "Dear Leader," Kim Jong-il, who reportedly suffered a stroke, looked shockingly frail and old.
No one knows who will take power after the "Beloved Leader." The most likely candidates: Kim's youngest son, Jong-un; senior military commanders; or the party politburo.
President Clinton and the Obama administration made the right move at the right time. Clinton's visit may thaw frozen negotiations over North Korea's nuclear weapons. Kim's nukes are not designed to attack the US but to deter the US from using its nuclear weapons against North Korea.
Everyone in tense North Asia will be relieved. North Korea is a volcano waiting to erupt. The United States is the only nation that seems capable of keeping some sort of order in the region and even helping North Korea achieve an orderly post-Kim succession. The US also plays a highly positive role in keeping Japan and Korea from each other's throats, and modulating Japanese-Chinese tensions.
Japan, South Korea and even China mightily fear North Korea will implode when the "Beloved Leader" is no more. Ugly and brutal as his regime is, this devil we know may be better than what could come next.
North Korea's collapse could send millions of starving refugees into South Korea, China, and across the narrow sea to Japan.
This column hears talk that China has a contingency plan to send its army into North Korea if it collapses.
South Korea is terrified by the prospect of what it calls "unexpected reunification": meaning the titanic cost of feeding 23.4 million starving North Koreans and rebuilding that battered nation. Japan is not anxious to see a united Korea. China does not want to see a US-dominated united Korea that would threaten its sensitive northeast industrial and military region of Manchuria.
So, those two lady reporters did everyone a favor by allowing Washington to reconnect to Pyongyang. This process must not be allowed to stop. Washington should join South Korea, Japan, China and Russia in preparing for the post-Kim era by opening wider talks with Pyongyang, discreetly assure North Korea it will not be attacked, and relaxing sanctions in exchange for important concessions from Pyongyang.
This is intelligent diplomacy, and the kind of positive statecraft the US should be conducting. Kudos to Bill Clinton.
August 11, 2009
Eric Margolis [send him mail] is contributing foreign editor for Sun National Media Canada. He is the author of War at the Top of the World and the new book, American Raj: Liberation or Domination?: Resolving the Conflict Between the West and the Muslim World. See his website.
Copyright © 2009 Eric Margolis