It’s hard
to think of Bill Clinton as a white knight, but last week he
rescued two damsels in distress in a brilliant "coup de
theatre."
North Korea’s
jailing of the two American female journalists who had foolishly
entered their forbidden nation last March set off a remarkable
chain of diplomatic events, culminating in President Bill Clinton’s
triumphant rescue mission to Pyongyang.
Clinton
conducted himself with dignity and gravitas, making sure never
to smile at the North Koreans. Even so, they were clearly thrilled
– even giddy with excitement, or as giddy as grim North Koreans
get – to have the former American president in their isolated
nation.
After months
of secret negotiations, the North Koreans made clear they would
only release the captives if Clinton came to get them. During
his presidency, the US and North Korea came close to normalizing
relations and ending the North’s nuclear program in exchange
for US aid and a lifting of US-led sanctions.
But when
President George Bush and his neoconservative supporters took
power, they quickly sabotaged Clinton’s deal with Pyongyang
and began beating the war drums. North Korea was high on the
neocons’ target list because it was believed to be an enemy
of Israel for allegedly selling missile technology to Iran,
Pakistan, and certain Arab states.
The neocons
are now spreading the bizarre scare story that North Korea is
selling decrepit Burma (Myanmar) a reactor to supposedly make
nuclear weapons. What Burma would do with nuclear weapons goes
unexplained. Bomb Laos?
The American
captives are safely home. But was it right to give in to North
Korea’s obvious diplomatic blackmail? What about abducted South
Koreans and Japanese being held under horrible conditions in
North Korea?
Morality
says no, but common sense says yes. This case was too important
to ignore.
Isolated,
threadbare North Korea desperately craves recognition by the
United States and end to punishing, American-led sanctions.
The US insists on treating Stalinist North Korea as a pariah
state.
North Korea
has at least six nuclear weapons aimed at Japan and South Korea,
where nearly 100,000 US military personnel are based. Washington’s
recent threats to stop and board North Korean merchantmen on
the high seas brought the two nations to the brink of hostilities.
Add to
the tensions a looming succession struggle in North Korea. During
Clinton’s visit, the reclusive, ailing North Korean "Dear
Leader," Kim Jong-il, who reportedly suffered a stroke,
looked shockingly frail and old.
No one
knows who will take power after the "Beloved Leader."
The most likely candidates: Kim’s youngest son, Jong-un; senior
military commanders; or the party politburo.
President
Clinton and the Obama administration made the right move at
the right time. Clinton’s visit may thaw frozen negotiations
over North Korea’s nuclear weapons. Kim’s nukes are not designed
to attack the US but to deter the US from using its nuclear
weapons against North Korea.
Everyone
in tense North Asia will be relieved. North Korea is a volcano
waiting to erupt. The United States is the only nation that
seems capable of keeping some sort of order in the region and
even helping North Korea achieve an orderly post-Kim succession.
The US also plays a highly positive role in keeping Japan and
Korea from each other's throats, and modulating Japanese-Chinese
tensions.
Japan,
South Korea and even China mightily fear North Korea will implode
when the "Beloved Leader" is no more. Ugly and brutal
as his regime is, this devil we know may be better than what
could come next.
North Korea’s
collapse could send millions of starving refugees into South
Korea, China, and across the narrow sea to Japan.
This column
hears talk that China has a contingency plan to send its army
into North Korea if it collapses.
South
Korea is terrified by the prospect of what it calls "unexpected
reunification": meaning the titanic cost of feeding 23.4
million starving North Koreans and rebuilding that battered
nation. Japan is not anxious to see a united Korea. China does
not want to see a US-dominated united Korea that would threaten
its sensitive northeast industrial and military region of Manchuria.
So, those
two lady reporters did everyone a favor by allowing Washington
to reconnect to Pyongyang. This process must not be allowed
to stop. Washington should join South Korea, Japan, China and
Russia in preparing for the post-Kim era by opening wider talks
with Pyongyang, discreetly assure North Korea it will not be
attacked, and relaxing sanctions in exchange for important concessions
from Pyongyang.
This is
intelligent diplomacy, and the kind of positive statecraft the
US should be conducting. Kudos to Bill Clinton.