PARIS
– What is the Kremlin up to? These past two weeks have produced
seemingly contradictory and certainly confusing messages from
Moscow.
First,
those who relish irony would have loved the recent economic
forum in the ugly little Swiss ski resort of Davos. Don’t get
me wrong. Switzerland is the world’s most beautiful country.
It’s just Davos that is an eyesore.
There,
former Soviet KGB chief and über-Communist Vladimir Putin, now
prime minister of Russia, rebuked attending western capitalist
bigwigs for causing the current global financial disaster and
making a hash out of capitalism.
Putin took
special aim at the United States for allowing Wall Street fraudsters
to erect a financial house of cards that finally collapsed,
causing the worst economic crisis since the 1930’s.
But at
last weekend in Munich, Russia’s deputy prime minister, Sergei
Ivanov, a former close KGB colleague of Putin, made nice to
US Vice President Joe Biden, offering conciliatory gestures
and speaking of a new era in American-Russian relations. Good
cop, bad cop?
Meanwhile,
social unrest was simmering across Europe as unemployment surges
and government handouts fall sharply. Britain, whose capital
had become a haven for every sort of financial piracy, is in
particularly bad shape. A recent visit to Canary Wharf, London’s
new financial center, showed a dreary spectacle of mass firings
of financial workers and entire floors in banks gone dark.
European
and Asian governments are now increasingly concerned that President
Barack Obama’s multi-trillion dollar economic rescue package
may prove far worse than the sickness it is meant to cure.
Politicians
everywhere are panicking as voters demand they do something
to keep their debt-driven economies running in high gear. This
is impossible. The debt bubble has burst. But politicians are
afraid to tell voters the hard truth: the party is over. Retrench,
stop borrowing, cut spending, start saving, live smaller.
The US
economy, 25% of the world’s total, was fatally addicted to the
steroid of debt. Consider this: America’s total national debt
(liabilities) amounted to 3.5 times its gross domestic product
(assets). The US Treasury kept running on loans from China and
Japan.
Now, Obama
and his team of Democratic Keynesian economists hope to spend
the US out of deep recession by dishing out US $2.2 trillion
in freshly printed money.
The famed
1930’s economist Lord Keynes claimed governments could correct
recessions by massive deficit spending which would be repaid
when boom times returned. His theories have become a state religion
for liberals on the left of the Democratic Party.
But massive
deficit spending is like treating a poison victim with more
big doses of poison. This kind of economic voodoo reminds me
of medieval medicine: try every kind of dangerous procedure
until you either kill the patient or he somehow survives the
doctors.
The current
crisis was caused by runaway borrowing by the Bush administration,
individuals, hedge funds, and the unregulated "shadow"
financial industry in New York and London. Obama’s remedy: borrow
and spend trillions more.
Europeans
are gravely concerned that Obama’s planned spending orgy will
eventually ignite worldwide inflation, undermine the US dollar,
and raise US interest rates. Since the US runs on borrowed money,
any decline in the value of its currency will require higher
interest rates to be paid to foreign investors to make up for
their added risk.
Europeans
have a well-justified horror of inflation. The storm of inflation
during the 1930’s Depression was the financial equivalent of
the Black Death, and led directly to fascism. Europe fears the
US is stoking inflation in hopes its vast foreign debts (about
$1.2 trillion to Japan and China alone) can be repaid in depreciated
dollars. We’ve seen such financial chicanery before, and it
leads to disaster.
As one
involved for nearly 50 years in business and investments, my
advice to the young president is to tell Americans to patiently
accept a long period of hardship and hangover, tighten their
belts, and start living within their means. After eight years
of untruths from the Bush administration, many Americans are
ready to hear the facts, however unpleasant.
While
aiding the financial system, the government should investigate
all the bankers, realtors, money managers and financial alchemists
who created America’s bubble economy of debt. Fraudster Bernie
Madoff was not alone. Time for handcuffs, not golden handshakes.
The best
way to stimulate the ailing economy is to cut taxes. Let people
decide how to spend their money. Washington’s plans for new
bridges and day care centers may win votes, but won’t revive
the economy. Japan tried this and it failed. The US needs productive
industrial investments.
Obama should
cut government spending and half the Pentagon’s bloated budget
(50% of world military spending when there are no enemy regular
military forces left to fight).
President
Roosevelt launched mass social welfare schemes in the 1930’s
similar to ones that Obama now proposes. Roosevelt’s New Deal
may have staved off popular revolution, but it did not revive
the economy. It took goading Japan into war to end the Depression.
Let’s hope President Obama does not intend to follow this example
in Afghanistan.