Back in
the old Soviet days, Kremlin leadership changes used to be marked
by a new pecking order of dumpy communist apparatchiks in awful
suits glowering from atop Lenin’s tomb as tanks and cheesy floats
rolled through Red Square.
No longer.
Roll over Brezhnev and Tchaikovsky. Welcome to the cool new
Mother Russia.
Last February,
Russia’s new leaders, 55-year-old Vladimir Putin and 42-year-old
Dimitri Medvedev, showcased their new diumverate by confidently
strolling from the Kremlin across Red Square to attend a Deep
Purple rock concert of all things. Forget about boring old "Swan
Lake." Decked out in hip black leather jackets and tailored
jeans, these two men symbolized the new, youthful, self-assured
Russia.
Last week,
Dimitri Medvedev, a bland bureaucrat who was Putin’s longtime
protégé and hand-picked successor, was inaugurated
president of Russia. Putin, who heads the United Russia Party,
the nation’s largest, became prime minister. Officially, the
prime minister reports to the president and serves at his pleasure.
So the
whole world immediately asked, "who’s really the boss?"
Good question.
Let me put on my Kremlinologist hat. Putin, who famously lamented
the collapse of the Soviet Union as the "greatest geopolitical
catastrophe of the century," may be replicating the old
USSR’s power structure.
The Soviet
Union had two parallel governments. A civilian one, with a president,
legislature, and ministers that was supposedly elected and looked
like other parliamentary governments. And a mirror structure
run by the Communist Party. Real power was held by the Party’s
General Secretary and Politburo who made all important policy
decisions. The civilian government was charged with implementing
them.
We can
envisage a similar dual arrangement in Moscow today wherein
Putin fills the role of the old Soviet General Secretary and
Medvedev that of more or less figurehead president.
Former
apparatchik Medvedev used to head Gazprom, Russia’s giant energy
firm. He would seem likely to focus on economic development
and raising living standards. Putin, formerly of KGB’s elite
First Directorate, will focus on foreign policy and rebuilding
Russia’s military and diplomatic power. But such a division
of power and interest flies in the face of normal government
structure, take France for good example, where the prime minister
deals with the economy and key domestic issues while the president
handles national security and foreign policy.
Whatever
the case, Vladi and Dimi, as they are known, are sitting on
a bonanza. Russia has 20% of the world’s natural gas reserves,
and at least 7% of proven oil reserves, some 75 billion barrels.
However, most of Russia’s huge reserves are in remote regions
in Siberia and the Arctic and will require vast investment to
further exploit. Even so, as energy prices soar, Russia grows
wealthier and more powerful by the day, a sort of Saudi Arabia
with snow. Putin’s re-nationalization of the nation’s oil industry
under Medvedev played a key role in restoring Moscow’s finances
to robust health. This is all part of Putin’s proclaimed 30-year
strategy to turn his nation into the world’s leading energy
and military power.
Interestingly,
Russia today commands far more influence over Western Europe
than it did when 100 Red Army divisions threatened the continent
to the point where France began rearming the Maginot forts and
American generals talked about having to "go nuclear"
on the fifth day of a Soviet invasion.
Russia’s
Gazprom now account for nearly 40% of Germany and Ukraine’s
gas consumption, 33% of Italy’s, 26% of France’s heating needs,
70% of Austria’s, and almost all of Eastern Europe’s gas. Moscow
no longer needs tanks to intimidate Europe. If Vladi and Dimmi
turn off the gas export tap, as they recently did to late-paying
Ukraine, Europeans will shiver in the winter cold. Russian gas
heats their homes and provides hot water.
Washington
is deeply alarmed by Russia’s growing energy clout. Until recently,
the US controlled much of world energy through its domination
of the Mideast. Now, however, Russia is challenging America’s
Oil Raj and Washington is struggling to develop new pipeline
routes to circumvent Russia’s fast expanding pipeline network.
Prime Minister
Putin can look back on his eight-year presidency with satisfaction.
He ruthlessly crushed the life out of the Chechen independence
struggle, as he promised Russians he would do. Thanks to high
energy prices, in part caused by the US invasion of Iraq, he
doubled Russia’s national income, renewed pensions, and restored
national pride. He has also been slowly rebuilding Russia’s
run-down military forces.
Most
important from the viewpoint of Russian nationalists, Putin
thwarted the Clinton administration’s attempts to establish
political and economic US tutelage of Boris Yeltsin’s post-Soviet
Russia, and pulled Russia out of the bankruptcy that had made
it dependent on secret cash infusions from Washington.
The Kremlin
must now deal with NATO’s steady advance to Russia’s borders.
The western power’s "drang nach osten" is a clear
violation of secret agreements between Washington and former
General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev not to advance NATO any
further east that it was in 1991 in exchange for Moscow allowing
the Baltic and Eastern European states to break away from Soviet
domination.
In
spite of Putin’s crushing democratic government and suppression
of free expression, his approval ratings run well over 60%.
If Putin and Medvedev can avoid falling out, and continue fruitful
teamwork, they are well placed to restore Russia as a global
power and turn this long-suffering nation into tomorrow’s economic
success story.