What Happened in Mumbaiby
William
S. Lind Applying operational art in Fourth Generation war is so difficult it is hard to point to many successful examples of it. The recent assaults in Bombay are among the few and also among the best, bordering on brilliant. We may regret brilliance on the part of our opponents, but that should not prevent us from acknowledging it.
The operational logic is evident:
Meanwhile, in Iraq, an odd combination of events may offer a strategic win-win-win opportunity for all parties: the U.S., the al-Maliki government and al Qaeda. Last week, the Iraqi parliament passed the new status of forces agreement that would keep American troops in Iraq through 2011. Washington regards that as a success, which it is not. What America needs most is to get out of Iraq before the next round in the Iraqi civil war starts. However, to get Sunni support for the agreement, the al-Maliki government had to agree to submit the deal to a national referendum next year. If the agreement is defeated in that referendum, everyone could win. American troops would have a better chance of getting out while Iraq is still quiet. The al-Maliki government could gain some legitimacy by obeying the expressed will of the Iraqi people and telling the Americans to pack and go. Al Qaeda could claim that, in the end, the Americans were expelled from Iraq rather than leaving on their own preferred timetable, which in fact stretches far beyond 2011.
A strategic win-win-win would be a strange outcome indeed for this phase of the Iraq war (there is more to come). But such are the vagaries of Fourth Generation war. We will see similar oddities in Afghanistan as that war moves toward settlement. The sooner Washington can stop thinking in binary terms and get used to strange outcomes, the better. December 4, 2008 William Lind, expressing his own personal opinion, is Director for the Center for Cultural Conservatism for the Free Congress Foundation. Copyright © 2008 William S. Lind
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Here,
al Qaeda has an operational opportunity, and it will be interesting
to see if it can grasp it. At present, al Qaeda in Iraq is on the
ropes, largely because its brutality toward the Iraqi population
has cost it its political base among the Sunnis. If al Qaeda can
think operationally, it will announce that it is suspending all
combat operations until the referendum. That truce would allow it
to patch up its relations with its base. Further, al Qaeda would
state that if the status of forces agreement is defeated, it will
not resume combat operations. It would have no need to do so, since
it could claim victory. And its pledge would encourage Iraqis, who
are tired of seemingly random bombings, to vote no. Al Qaeda in
Iraq could recover at the ballot box from the defeat it has inflicted
on itself in the field.