How
To Stop a Tax Increase
by
David R. Henderson
by David R. Henderson
In
my
earlier piece on January 2, I told how I reluctantly became
involved in the fight against a ½ cent increase in the local sales
tax to fund Natividad, a badly managed government hospital. Lawrence
Samuels, the person who encouraged me to help him out, was my co-debater
on a panel with Mark Tunzi and Melissa Larsen, two doctors from
Natividad. This narrative picks up where the earlier one left off,
telling of our November 11 debate at a forum packed heavily with
supporters of Measure Q, the sales tax increase.
Over
and over again, people asked versions of the question, "What happens
to health care for uninsured people when Natividad closes?" Lawrence
and I kept answering that we couldn't know that it would close and
that if it did, it would probably turn into a private hospital.
In retrospect, I think this question wore me down. What I should
have done each time is answered the question completely and then
each time gone on to raise another point against Measure Q so that
questioners in the audience would see that there was a cost to their
side from asking the question.
I
wondered why the same question kept coming up again and again. I
think I found out when we took a 10-minute break. A few people came
up during the break and said that they had written out questions
that were much more critical of the tax increase than the questions
being asked. Two people told me that they had written out questions
about how we could justify using taxpayer money to provide medical
care for illegal aliens, a group that is thought, correctly or not,
to be a big part of the reason Natividad keeps losing money. My
friend Tom told me that he had asked how much doctors at Natividad
are paid. What I should have done, next chance I got, was answer
quickly whatever question was asked and use the remaining time to
point that the illegal-alien question had been raised with me at
the break and then give my answer. I think I normally would have
thought of that. But I hadn’t had dinner, and I’m the kind of person
who doesn’t do well without regular meals, and I didn’t think of
it.
I
did think of something, however, that was almost as good. After
about the sixth time the question, "What do you do about medical
care for poor people when Natividad closes down?", I said:
We’ve
answered that question about five times now and I’ll answer
it again quickly. It’s unlikely to close; it’s more likely to
be privatized. I want to point out to the audience, though,
that the League of Women Voters seems to be very selective in
the kinds of questions they’re letting through. I talked to
people during the break who told me they had written out questions
that were more critical of Measure Q and that those questions
haven’t been asked.
After
that, the ratio of critical questions to friendly questions seemed
to switch from about 9 to 1 to 7 to 3. So maybe my method worked
even better than raising the illegal alien question would have.
It’s
interesting how, when people get to a certain comfort level, some
of their true beliefs emerge. Late in the debate, that happened
with Melissa. She said that we should face the fact that free markets
in medical care don’t work and that we need ultimately to move to
"single-payer health care" (the modern euphemism for socialized
medicine.) I pointed out to the audience that Melissa had just lifted
the veil a little and given us a peak. I said:
If
that’s the true agenda, then I can tell you it doesn’t work.
I’m from Canada and what we’ve learned is that socialized medicine
doesn’t mean that everyone gets medical care. It means that
everyone is told they’ll get medical care but they have to line
up to get it. Canada's socialized medicine is really a form
of price controls, with the price of every hospital stay and
every doctor visit set at zero. As a result, no patient takes
account of cost when choosing whether to get medical care. Doctors
and hospitals are paid, of course, but the pay is set by government.
The result is a perpetual shortage. Canada’s socialized medicine
is popular with most Canadians because most Canadians are healthy.
But talk to people who have had serious medical problems and
you get a very different picture.
I
told of months-long waits between diagnosis and surgery. I also
told the story, that I tell in my The
Joy of Freedom, about the people in one southern Ontario
town who had to wait 3 months to get a CT scan while people could
get their dogs scanned within 24 hours of making an appointment.
People were not allowed to pay for scans, I explained, because the
Canadian government "cared" so much about people. But because the
government didn't "care" about dogs, their owners were able to pay
$300 to get them in.
At
about 7:30 p.m., about ¾ of the way through this 2-hour event, I
felt my mental and physical energy nosedive. I was hungry and no
longer able to think as quickly as I usually do. So I stalled by
asking them to repeat questions and I deferred more and more to
Lawrence, whose energy seemed boundless. One particularly important
thing I remember him saying was in response to a question from the
audience about what the money would be used for if Measure Q passed.
The two pro-tax doctors said that they didn't know, that when the
Measure passed, they would have to sit down and figure it out. Lawrence
jumped on that point like an ant on honey. "You've been accusing
us of not knowing what will happen if the Measure fails and now
you admit that you don't know what will happen if the Measure passes,"
he said.
In
retrospect, I think we made four main mistakes. First, it was obvious
to Lawrence and me, both from the way most people in the 200+ audience
seemed to know each other and from the high percentage of the audience
wearing "Yes on Q" buttons, that 80+ percent of the audience were
either hospital employees or families of hospital employees. But
that wouldn't have been at all obvious to a radio audience. We should
have pointed that out, and not just once but two or three times.
Second, a related point is that we should have pointed out how well-funded
the other side was and pointed out why: they were a special interest
with jobs and pay directly at stake, whereas we represented the
general interest of the taxpayer. Moreover, the two doctors on the
other side were leading members of the special-interest group. Third,
we should have used the term "tax increase" whenever mentioning
Measure Q and, in fact, we should have used the term "permanent
tax increase." Fourth, we should have done more research, although,
with our budget, that was hard to do. Specifically, though, we should
have checked public documents to find out the salaries of the two
doctors on the other side. I suspect that their salaries exceed
mine and I’m positive they vastly exceed the salaries of over 80
percent of the voters, and that fact would have been nice to know
and might have useful at some point in the debate.
After
the event ended, a woman from a Spanish-language TV channel interviewed
me, asking me what I think should happen if Measure Q failed and
Natividad closed. I looked at her annoyed and explained that we
had no basis for claiming that Natividad would close if Measure
Q failed.
That
evening, after dropping off my friend Tom Lee, I got on the freeway
and drove home at 80 miles per hour in a 65 mph zone, while playing
rock music loud on my car stereo. I had a delicious feeling of freedom:
whatever the outcome of the vote, I could still drive fast as long
as I had my radar detector and I could still listen to the music
I want. I was reminded of May 21, 1979, when I testified against
a revival of the draft in front of U.S. Senator Sam Nunn of the
Senate Armed Services Committee. After Tom Palmer, now of the Cato
Institute, and I had both testified, we were walking outside in
the beautiful late springtime in Washington, and Tom said, "It's
proposals like this [Nunn wanted to bring back the draft] that remind
me how much freedom we still have."
The
late evening news showed pictures of the forum and one of the stations
had an interview with both sides, with Lawrence Samuels representing
our side. Until that point, our side had not been heard from. But
the news played it as, "Controversy rages about Measure Q, the sales
tax increase for Natividad." Later, Lawrence pointed out that this
headline was a tremendous achievement in itself. If people always
just see one side, he pointed out, many won't even think to question
it but will go along with it. But if they hear that there's controversy,
many will want to know more and will pay attention to both sides.
The
next Sunday morning, November 16, I went outside to get my morning
Monterey Herald, and noticed a huge front-page story, "Natividad's
Shot at Recovery Unclear." The subtitle was, "Troubled Hospital
Looks to Measure Q to Nurse it Back to Health." "Oh, no," I groaned.
I was sure this article would lay out how important Natividad was
and how it was absolutely vital that it get the new tax revenue.
Then
I read the article. It turned out to be a straight news story that
gave the history of Natividad back to 1953, pointing out that it
had always been badly managed and had always been a huge drain on
the county government. Later, when a reporter from the Herald asked
us on election night what were the most important factors in our
victory, Lawrence and I answered that one of the most important
was the Herald's exposé of Natividad. I have to remember this when
I give Lawrence and others and me credit for defeating the tax.
Without that Herald exposé, who knows how the vote might
have gone. That gives me some hope, because journalists looking
for material on government boondoggles can find it and make a difference.
But it also gives me fear, because what if Alex Friedrich, the author
of the story, had decided not to do such thorough research?
From
that day until the December 2 election, I tracked the letters in
the Salinas Californian and the Monterey Herald, and
noticed that the letters were running roughly 60/40 in favor of
Measure Q. Given that the ratio of signs was roughly 4 to 1, that
all of the TV and radio advertising was pro-Q, and that the Measure
Q was budgeting over $400,000 for the campaign while the various
small groups on our side spent about $4,000, all of it for signs,
I found this heartening. Also heartening was that almost none of
the names of the letter writers was familiar to me and that many
of them were making the arguments we had made in our debate and
in our letters. I'll never be able to verify this, but I feel in
my bones that Lawrence's and my outspoken, unapologetic case against
the tax increase was making it safer for non-activists to write
letters critical of the tax.
One
other device we used effectively was talk radio. During the next
few weeks, I called Doug Moschetti's morning talk show a number
of times when I had some new thought about Measure Q or when I wanted
to respond to the arguments of the pro-taxers.
During
the debate, I noticed that the other side had quit claiming that
the tax was temporary, even though the campaign leaflet I had been
handed at a local store had stated that "fact" in a prominent place
on the flyer. That told me that we had been effective; they would
no longer be making that claim. But once you have that kind of victory,
there's a temptation to go on to other issues because that one is
resolved. That does make sense in an academic seminar; it makes
no sense in a political debate. Once you've won an important point
(and if it isn't important, there's no sense in trying to win it),
then you remind people of that fact. You do this for two reasons.
First, people who had mistakenly accepted the other side's view
might still accept it if they're not told the truth and, if no one
is talking about it, they're not being told the whole truth. You
can't assume that voters are following the issues as closely as
you are. Second, it undercuts the credibility of the other side.
"They misled us about this," voters might say to themselves, "so
I wonder what else they're misleading us on." So I called Doug Moschetti's
show at 7:30 a.m., which I judged to be close to peak driving time,
and pointed out that, by their silence, the pro-tax side was admitting
our point. And, just to drive it home, I pointed out that there
was no automatic end to the tax after 10 years.
The
other claim in the flyer that I went after was the statement by
a paramedic who was an official in a local union that, "Measure
Q has some of the strictest watchdog requirements ever established."
I quoted his statement, making sure I referred to him as a union
official and not as a paramedic, and then pointed out to the radio
audience that I had read through the whole Measure and had found
no meaningful watchdog requirements. Measure Q would have set up
an 18-member advisory board, but the board had no power.
Finally,
I had noticed that the pro-tax people had used, over and over, the
following line: "It's only 5 cents a day for the average person."
I told Moschetti how much the pro-tax side was using the "only 5
cents a day" argument. Then I said:
A
standard problem in ethics classes is the following. You're
a hotshot software engineer at a big bank. You figure out how
to take a penny from the bank account of each of one million
people. If you do so, you'll be $10,000 better off and they
won't notice. Assume you can do it so that it won't even mess
up their bookkeeping. Do you?
"No,"
said Moschetti adamantly.
"Exactly,"
I said, "and I would bet that the vast majority of your listeners
would answer no. So what's the difference in principle between an
individual stealing a penny from each of one million people and
the government taking 5 cents a day from each of 400,000 people?"
I
noticed that every morning during that campaign, my newspaper reading
style differed from before the campaign. Instead of going through
the newspaper in a leisurely way, I would check for stories about
Measure Q and Natividad and then turn to the letters section to
see who was saying what. At about 6:30 one morning, I read a letter
from a couple who claimed that opponents of Measure Q were modern-day
Scrooges. I pictured 10,000 to 20,000 people reading this letter
and finding it convincing. I could imagine some of them saying,
"Well, after all, the holiday season is approaching. I should be
generous and vote for Measure Q." So I called up Doug Moschetti
at KION and arranged to get on at about 7:30 a.m.
On
the air, I quoted the couple's letter and then pointed out that
they missed the point of Charles Dickens's A Christmas Carol.
In laying this out, I drew on a theme in my book, The Joy of
Freedom:
Think
about what happens when Scrooge wakes up after his horrible nightmare
and realizes that he doesn't like the way he has been. Does he
say, "Oh, boy, now I can vote for tax increases to help others?"
No, he actually decides to give his own money. Or think about
when he goes to the window and yells out to the little boy on
the street to go to the butcher shop and buy a turkey for the
Cratchits. Does he say, "Oh, and collect a tax from everyone
on the street to pay for it?" Of course not. He realizes
that he can change and that the way to be generous is to use his
own money, not to vote to take other people's money.
What
we had here in this campaign was an informal "Rapid Response" strategy
similar to the one Clinton's campaign used in 1992. In virtually
every community, there were people who had volunteered to call in
to talk shows when they heard the talk going against Clinton, and
then balancing the scales with their pro-Clinton comments. What
I was doing was seeing what I thought would be the most compelling
arguments on the other side, quickly formulating my response, and
then going on radio and presenting it. I could imagine 1,000 or
so people who read the Herald letter and found it compelling then
hearing my comment within an hour and then many of them finding
the Herald letter much less persuasive.
One
day during the campaign, I received a call from Laurel Shackleford,
the earlier-mentioned Managing Editor of the Herald. She asked me
if I knew where the Measure Q proponents' estimate of $22 a year
for the average person had come from. She had tried to find out
and no one had been able to give her the source or the methodology
for the estimate. I told her that I hadn't either, but that my estimate
was substantially higher. First, we could probably take their $25
million estimate as being relatively reliable because presumably
it was based on good estimates of what the existing sales tax was
bringing in and a further half-percent increase was unlikely to
cause a large decline in sales. One nurse who wrote a letter to
the Herald cited an estimate that 40% of the revenue would be paid
by tourists, leaving $15 million to be paid by residents. The recent
Census data I had checked showed that there were about 407,000 residents
in Monterey County. So, dividing $15 million by 407,000, the average
resident would pay about $37 a year, not $22. A few days later,
the Herald's editorial on Measure Q appeared. It cited my $37 estimate
and, even better, didn't name me. That way, it sounded authoritative
in a way that it wouldn't have if it had named an opponent of Measure
Q as the source. After laying out all the problems with the sales
tax increase its lack of a sunset clause, the sorry history of mismanagement,
the lack of accountability the editorial concluded that these problems
could be fixed (How? Blankout, as Ayn Rand used to say) and went
on to advocate a Yes vote.
In
retrospect, our trip to the Herald earlier that month seemed to
have been ineffective. But now I'm not so sure. It was probably
the fact that we hammered on mismanagement and phony sunset clauses
that caused the Herald's editors to cite those facts so centrally
in their editorial. And it might even have been because of our emphasis
on mismanagement that they chose to run a 3-part series on the Natividad
mess. I've come to think of editors of newspapers as politicians.
They want to give a little something to everyone. The editors probably
knew that a substantial majority of their readers would be pro-Q
and they wanted to throw a bone to them by advocating Q. But they
also wanted to satisfy a vocal minority and, probably more important
to them, carry out the traditional function of a newspaper by reporting
important and relevant facts. Thus the facts they cited in their
editorial and their decision to run a few stories laying out Natividad's
history.
When
I had first joined the campaign, I had wondered what, if any, response
I would get from my colleagues at the Naval Postgraduate School
and from people generally in the community. A number of my colleagues
have commented in the past, generally favorably, when I have an
article in Fortune or the Wall Street Journal. But
local politics is different for two reasons. First, a much higher
percent of my colleagues and of my neighbors read or listen to local
media than read Fortune or the Wall Street Journal.
Second, local issues tend to generate more passion, I think because
people feel more in control of local issues and feel hopeless about
their ability to control national issues. I'm known somewhat in
my town of Pacific Grove for my 10 years of coaching young girls
in basketball, which began when my daughter started in 3rd
grade and continued long past her participation because I enjoyed
it so much. But, other than that, I'm somewhat anonymous in my community.
So would people's attitudes to me change?, I wondered.
I'm
happy to report that they did. I noticed it first at a Navy school
retirement party for a colleague. I went up to say hi to a senior
economist colleague, one whom I've always liked and respected as
an economist, but who, partly because he's in a different department,
I have not talked to at length for more than a decade. "I want to
thank you for all you're doing for us taxpayers. You're performing
a real public service," he said.
I
beamed and decided to say something that a fellow economist would
appreciate. "You're welcome. I've calculated how much money I've
spent on this campaign and estimated the value of time I've put
into it, and I've already put into it more than the present value
of the amount I'll pay in this tax over my lifetime." We both chuckled.
A
few minutes later, I approached a senior colleague from the Math
department who said approximately the same thing. Although I'm guessing
that I have colleagues who disapprove, they were lying low. After
the campaign ended, one junior economist colleague in another department
e-mailed me his congratulations and said that he thought we should
have emphasized the regressive nature of the tax and, therefore,
the fact that the tax would have added to the very poverty that
the revenues were supposed to solve one of the effects of. I replied
that he was right, but that, with a limited budget, we could do
only so much. I suggested, though, that for the next sales tax fight,
he write such a letter to the paper.
In
the community generally, I received an even more positive response.
I ran into people in my everyday life who volunteered to me that
they liked what I was doing and thanked me for it. After the campaign
ended, a number of people volunteered that they and their spouse
had voted "No." One woman who had a daughter attending the same
high school as my daughter wrote me a nice note thanking me and
when I called her to acknowledge her note, we talked for half an
hour. When I called a neighbor about a completely unrelated matter,
she told me she had voted No and that she had been an employee at
Natividad for 20 years and it was so badly run that it was beyond
hope. So one of the most positive unintended consequences was that
I felt like more a member of my community and more like a respected
community leader.
I
also learned a lot about local politics that I hadn't thought about,
but that, after I learned it, made total sense. One specific lesson
stands out. I had lunch one day with a group of people, including
a prominent local Republican who was a big fan of my book, The
Joy of Freedom. He thanked me for all my efforts. I accepted
his thanks and asked him, "Where are the Republicans on this? How
come you guys haven't come out against Measure Q? And how come none
of you have contributed any money to our campaign?"
His
answer was blunt. "Look at the list of supporters of Q," he said,
"and you'll see almost every prominent local politician. Once the
local politicians line up almost unanimously on one side, you can't
oppose them publicly if you're in a business in which you depend
on local government approval to operate your business." I knew he
was in such a business, and if I named it, people in my area could
quickly figure out the name of the person I was talking to, which
is why I won't name his business. But the conversation reinforced
my view, that I got when I testified in front of the FDA in 1995
and saw how deferential drug company testifiers were compared to
how undeferential I was, that many people in this country no longer
have freedom of speech because government officials can use their
discretionary power to punish them for saying things the officials
disapprove of. In fact, I later heard that one prominent local person
who is almost a libertarian actually gave a large sum to the Yes
on Q campaign because he wanted local government approval of a big
project.
During
the campaign, Lawrence also lined me up to be in a discussion with
Mary Ann Leffel, the earlier-mentioned person on the other side,
on the local public radio station. The discussion was to be taped
and condensed, which is not ideal, because the producer can cut
the parts that make one side look good and the other side look bad.
Still, it made sense to take advantage of this free publicity. Even
if, in the worst case, the editing turned out to be totally biased
against our side, we would still get radio time in which people
heard someone sensible criticizing the tax increase. As it turns
out, the editing was done quite fairly.
Not
so the initial question asked of me, though. The questioner first
asked Mary Ann her basic case for Measure Q. A fair questioner would
have then asked me my case against Q. But instead, because Mary
Ann had claimed that without the tax increase, Natividad would probably
shut down, the questioner followed up by asking me what would happen
if Natividad shut down. I answered that she had no basis for believing
it would and that if it did shut down as a government hospital,
it would probably emerge as a private one. Then, in little bits
throughout the 30-minute taping, I circled back to make the case
that he should have allowed me to make up front in response to a
question.
I've
done a fair amount of talk radio over the years, and the main reason,
I think, that it takes so much energy is that I'm constantly having
to be vigilant to make sure that I get across what I came to say,
while still being responsive to the questioner. That takes a lot
of mental juggling. And although I needed to go to work after the
interview, I felt like going home for a nap.
The
best point I made was when Mary Ann admitted many of the management
failures at Natividad and then pointed out that in the last year,
they had cleaned up many of them: they had improved their billing
procedures, for example, and had instituted co-pays for everyone
who came to the hospital. I replied:
That's
tremendous news and, to the extent you were responsible for those
measures, Mary Ann, you deserve a lot of credit. But I guarantee
that if you had had this tax increase two years ago, with a new
$25-million revenue stream coming from it, you never would have
instituted these efficiency measures. The way we're going to see
more positive reform at Natividad is if Natividad doesn't get
rewarded for past failures.
My
second-best point came after I made what had become my standard
statement that the tax increase was permanent. I didn't expect Mary
Ann to challenge it, but she did. She replied, "If Measure Q passes,
you can bet that I'll be watching closely to make sure the money
is spent well. And if I see that it's not, I'll be going to the
Board of Supervisors meetings in nine and a half years and making
my views known."
This
seemed like a weak argument to me. I replied, "I have no reason
to doubt your integrity and from what I've seen, you seem like a
person of integrity. But I think you're overstating your power.
You can't control the Board of Supervisors. They'll do what they
want to do. And the hospital will get so used to that revenue stream
that I guarantee that 10 years from now, the Board of Supervisors
will think it vital."
Throughout
the campaign, day after day, letters on both sides poured in to
the two major daily newspapers, the Monterey Herald and the Salinas
Californian. And day after day, Lawrence Samuels made sure that
the signs that were stolen one day were replaced that evening.
Around
the time of the November 11 debate, I made a bet with Lawrence.
I bet that we would get 38% of the vote and he bet 40%. On December
2, the evening of which the vote count would be announced, I realized
that I had emotionally invested myself in a positive outcome. I
confessed to a friend that if the tax increase passed, I would have
a tough evening. Yes, I would bounce back the next day, but, still,
I badly wanted to win. We decided to have a "victory" party at Tom
Lee's house in Seaside and Lawrence invited the press. That morning,
I read Lawrence quoted in the paper that we would be having a party
at a private home and celebrating with champagne and pizza. I called
Lawrence up and said, only half-jokingly, "Lawrence, if you're going
to be a regular activist, then you need to spend at least half an
hour at the David Henderson school of political rhetoric. We aren't
having a party at a private home; we're having a party at a private
home in Seaside [Seaside is the lowest-income part of the Monterey
Peninsula]. Otherwise, people will think Pebble Beach. And we aren't
having champagne and pizza; we're having beer and pizza."
That
night, when I got to the party, a local TV reporter was already
there. I could tell by the 30-foot tall mast on the truck outside
and all the wires leading from the truck to Tom's house. The whole
event made me realize what friends who've studied TV news have been
telling me for some time: how staged the whole thing often is. Rather
than wait around until the results were in, they wanted to have
one clip to use if we won and one clip to use if we lost. So that's
what they did. Imagine you've just won and now tell me how you feel
and why you won; imagine that you've lost and now tell me how you
feel and why you lost.
That
TV newscaster left and then the party started. Most of the 10 or
so people there were small "l" or big "L" libertarians (I'm a small
"l" libertarian who's registered Republican) and we had pizza, beer,
soda, champagne, and salad as we talked about political ideas, our
lives, the campaign, everything. At 8:10, ten minutes after the
polls closed, a Libertarian friend in Salinas who was closely tracking
the count in the Salinas voter registrar's office, called and said
that of the 66,000 votes counted so far (virtually all the votes
that had been mailed in up to the day before), about 62% were Yes
votes. I pulled out a scrap of paper and did some quick calculations.
A minute later, I announced to room of about 10 people that we had
won.
"Why
are you so sure?," asked the host, Tom Lee. I started to show him
my math and then decided that it would be more fun and more illuminating
to show it to everyone. So he got an easel, a big pad, and a black
marker from his closet and I laid it out:
Let
x be the number of additional Yes votes they need and assume,
highly unrealistically, that they have engaged in such massive
fraud that all votes yet to be counted are Yes votes. Then let's
solve for x.
We
know that 66,000 votes have been counted and approximately 40,900
of them (62%) are Yes.
For
Measure Q to win, 40,900 + x all divided by 66,000 + x must
exceed 66.6%. Solving, x must exceed 9,000. And, realistically,
even the most massive fraud can't cause more than 90% of the
uncounted votes to be Yes votes and so x must really exceed
10,000. And, preliminary indications are that there are fewer
than 8,000 votes to be counted.
Shortly
after, Larry Parsons, the reporter for the Salinas Californian,
whom I had come to respect for his even-handed reporting, called
and asked if we were ready to declare a victory. We absolutely are,
I said, and I told him my reasoning. "Sitting here in our newsroom,
we came up with a number like 10,000 too," he said.
Around
that time, a reporter for the Herald, Jonathan Segal, showed
up. I asked Jonathan where he was from and we talked briefly about
the bizarre politics in my town, Pacific Grove, that were part of
what he covered. I've always found it useful to be nice to reporters
and to ask them about their background; you probably get marginally
better coverage and marginally better respect. I confess, though,
that the main reason I'm friendly with reporters is the same as
the reason I'm friendly with cops, people in stores, soldiers checking
my ID, TSA employees going through my bag when I travel, people
I walk by on the sidewalk, and people generally. It's that I like
the vast majority of people I run into and, for me, connecting with
people in this way is a huge part of the pleasure I get in life.
Let's face it: no one's paying us to be activists and so we'd better
look for the sources of enjoyment in it that we can find.
Lawrence
broke out the champagne and I passed around copies of the old cadre-building,
fun campfire song, "Vive le compagnie." Tom Lee and I have led this
at various events; my previous most-fun time I led it was at a lecture
I gave at a Cato Institute summer seminar in San Diego last summer,
when 100 people sang it out. As we sang, I invited Jonathan to join
in, and, of course, he didn't because he probably felt the need
to maintain his distance as a reporter. Sure enough, in the Herald
the next day, he reported our song and the champagne.
A
little later, Ann McGrath, an attractive reporter from the local
NBC affiliate, showed up and, because Lawrence was busy on the phone
with a print reporter, he asked me to handle the interview. Ann
was covering it as a horse race rather than as a campaign of ideas,
which, I have found, is common among reporters. So she asked me,
before we went on camera, whether we had won. I told her we had
and explained my reasoning, pointing to the pad on the easel. Her
cameraman loved it and started doing close-ups of the calculations.
She told me that on the way over, they were doing the math mentally
and that, by adding increments of 1,000 votes at a time and calculating
each time, they had come up with my 9,000 to 10,000 result. Sharp
lady, I thought to myself. So I went on camera and said that we
had won and that the reason was that even if all of the remaining
votes were Yes votes, there would have to be almost 10,000 of them
and we didn't think there were that many yet to be counted.
I
had promised my daughter to be home by around 9:00 p.m. it
was her birthday the next day and so about 9:15, I left.
I gave a ride to Tory Schwenk, one of the young activists in the
campaign, and on the way he told me about his sign-placing strategy.
He had gone out late at night every night to replace the signs that
had been stolen that day. "Let's say I had put up 6 signs in one
place one night," he said, "and the next day all 6 were gone. The
next night I would put up 7 in that place. I wanted the other side
to feel the futility of it and to say to themselves, 'Gee, the other
side must be organized.'" When he told me that story, I flashed
to my favorite line from the movie, Butch
Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, when Butch and Sundance are
chased day and night by some nameless guys who never lose their
trail and, when they realize that, they say, in awe, "Who are those
guys?"
That
night, KCBA, the local FOX affiliate, led the 10:00 p.m. news with
the story that the election was too close to call. "That'll teach
them to tape the interviews rather than do them live," I chortled
to myself, "Wait until they get scooped by KSBW." Sure enough, at
11:00, KSBW, the local NBC affiliate, led the news with an interview
of me explaining that we had won, with my trusty calculations in
the background, and then Ann McGrath on camera basically making
my point in her own words. I must confess that laying those calculations
out for the people at the party and for Ann McGrath were, for me,
the most pleasurable part of the campaign. What can I say? I’m a
teacher at heart.
Then
came one of the most shocking things I've seen in local politics.
One of the members of the Board of Supervisors vowed that, despite
the failure of Measure Q, Natividad would not close. "What?", my
wife screamed involuntarily. Throughout the whole campaign, the
proponents' main argument was that without the new tax revenue,
the hospital would close. Yet here they were all the Board
of Supervisors had supported the tax increase saying, less
than two hours after losing, that it wouldn't. The whole campaign
had been built on a lie.
At
7:00 o'clock the next morning, the phone woke me up. It was Mark
Carbonero of KION radio. He wanted to set up an interview for 7:15.
So I called back and we reviewed why the tax increase had been defeated.
I then quoted what the supervisor had said the night before and
commented, "I'm used to people admitting that they lied during a
campaign. I'm not used to people admitting it less than two hours
after they found out they lost."
Then
I went out the front door and got the newspaper. The headline blared:
MEASURE Q FAILS
The
numbers given were 40,436 Yes votes (61.3%), 25,455 No votes, and
about 7,000 ballots yet to be counted.
Interestingly,
though, the front-page picture was of the losers at their party.
The picture of the winners (our small band of brothers and sisters)
was relegated to the back of the newspaper. It was like reading
that Clinton had won reelection in 1996 and seeing Bob Dole's picture
on the front page and Clinton's on the back. No matter. We won.
(Next
time: We learn some important facts left out by the pro-tax people,
we ally with a new antitax person, and I consider what I learned
about activism that will guide me in future political action.)
(This
is the second of a three-part series.)
January
9, 2004
David
R. Henderson [send him mail]
is
an associate professor of economics at the Naval Postgraduate School
in Monterey, California and a research fellow with the Hoover Institution
at Stanford University. He was previously a senior economist with
President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers. He is author of
The
Joy of Freedom: An Economist's Odyssey
(Prentice Hall, 2002). His web site is www.davidrhenderson.com.
Copyright
© 2004 by David R. Henderson. Permission to reprint or use in any
way is hereby granted as long as the author and title are cited.
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