Jim Saunders
letter criticizing my belief in the availability of oil makes
some valid points. "Alternative energy" sources will
not easily supplant existing energy supplies. Hydrogen is very
expensive to make. How anyone can say it is a potential energy
source is beyond me. That is one of the more stupid statements
that are being bandied about. I don’t have a particularly high
regard for President Bush, but then I don’t have a particularly
high regard for any of our recent presidents or presidential candidates,
going back at least 100 years, but it is hard to imagine anyone
pushing such nonsense.
Nevertheless
there are several things wrong with his critique. I was trying
to present an accurate picture of our energy situation. There
is no doubt that energy is a problem, oil in particular, but it
is one that can be managed. It is obvious that the world has ample
oil and there would be no problem where it not for the dishonesty
and incompetence of the corporate world that specializes in petroleum,
the genuinely outstanding dishonesty and incompetence of governments
everywhere, and the truly remarkable behavior of environmentalists
desperate to create difficult problems or problems for which there
is no solution. There are good odds we face a dismal future so
long as we acquiesce in government interference in markets; oil
being a striking example. There are even stronger odds that we
will exacerbate this dismal picture so long as foreign policy
decisions, including those of energy, are resolved by sending
fleets and armies around the world and bombing civilians indiscriminately.
If U.S. oil
production continues its 30-year decline there is nothing wrong
with importing more oil. In a trading world it is foolish to attempt
to be self-sufficient, and not buy goods where they are the cheapest.
But the forecast of a decline is not necessarily true.
He makes
a serious charge when he claims that "inorganic energy sources
are considered to be "fringe" science. This ignores
that using this "fringe" science Russia has gone from
being nearly out of oil 50 years ago to producing on a par with
Saudi Arabia and ourselves today. They call it the modern Russian-Ukrainian
abyssal theory and see basement rock below the earth’s crust as
the source of petroleum. The Russians have long since shown that
the conventional wisdom, in this case the belief that oil is produced
from the detritus of plants and microscopic animals, is questionable
if not actually wrong. His "fringe" science comment
makes him sound very much like someone stuck on a Kuhnian paradigm,
unable to accept new ideas.
It works
for the Russians; they claim it will work anywhere. The trick
is to not to be too concerned about sedimentary rock and to seek
out drill sites where the earth’s crust is thinnest. It is expensive
and since our oil companies have ample reserves today, they are
reluctant to spend money now for future benefit, and so long as
they remain hung up on the false theory of biotic oil they see
no point to it.
Our government,
in collaboration with big oil (it keeps the price up) and attempting
to please environmentalists, appears to be sitting on vast oil
fields in the Beaufort Sea. The Gull Island field alone is estimated
to contain resources as large as those of Saudi Arabia, probably
of abiotic oil that has already migrated upward (upwelling is
the expression oil people use), but no one is permitted to explore
it, to find out.
It is clear
that if we accept the abiotic (inorganic) theory, stick to free
market principles and establish the unhampered market as best
we can, energy sufficiency can be established worldwide. The oil
is there. All it needs is technology and the will to use it.