Collapse: It's Coming! Are You Ready?
by Gerald Celente
by Gerald Celente: Arab
Spring + European Summer = World Winter of Discontent
is not all right. And things are going to get worse
worse. The economy is on the threshold of calamity. Wars are spreading
like wildfires. The world is on a razors edge.
Not so, say
world leaders and mainstream media experts. Yes, there are problems,
but the financiers and politicians are aware of them. Policies are
already in place and measures are being taken to correct them.
failing economies, intractable old wars or raging new wars, the
word from the top always maintains that steady progress is being
made and comforts the populace with assurances that the brightest
minds and the sharpest generals are in charge and on the case. On
all fronts, success is certain and victory is at hand. Only patience
along with more men, more time and more money.
As far as these
leaders and their media are concerned, the only opinions
that count come from a stable of thoroughbred experts, official
sources and political favorites. Only they have the credentials
to speak with authority and provide trustworthy forecasts. That
they are consistently, if not invariably, wrong apparently does
nothing to diminish their credibility.
How can any
thinking adult possibly imagine that the same central bankers, financiers
and politicians responsible for creating the economic crisis are
capable of resolving it? Within days of its announcement, we predicted
that Bushs TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) was destined
to fail, and subsequently predicted the same for Obamas stimulus
package (The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). They were
no more than cover-ups; there would be no recovery.
New Plan, Same as the Old Plan
Republican, it makes no difference. Despite the heated rhetoric,
solving economic problems had less to do with the party in power
and more to do with professional competence.Both sides had their
turn in office. Both used their power to initiate policies that
created the problems. Both sides had their shot at fixing the messes
they were responsible for. Both sides failed, as we predicted. Given
who they are and what theyve done, we confidently predict
an unbroken sequence of bipartisan failures in the future.
Incompetents are in the drivers seat. What person with a healthy
instinct for self-preservation would believe the promises of politicians
or trust the judgment of central bankers or Wall Street financiers
whose only real interest is self interest?
as Usual In the 1920s, US President Calvin Coolidge declared,
The business of America is business. Four score and
10 years later, the business of America has become war: The forty-year
War on Drugs; The ten-year War on Terror; the Afghan War (longest
in American history); the eight-years-and-no-end-in-sight Iraq War;
the covert wars in Pakistan and Yemen; and most recently, the time-limited,
scope-limited kinetic military action in Libya.
While the justifications
for engaging in these wars were all different, all were murderous,
immoral, interminable, ruinously expensive and abject failures.
Why would anyone believe the optimistic battle communiqués
issued by the czars in charge and the battlefield brass
who keep reassuring the public that reapplying previously failed
strategies would, this time, lead to success?
Yet even in
the face of their proven failures and gross incompetence, anyone
daring to challenge the party line or the conventional wisdom is
dismissed as an alarmist, fear monger, or
gloom-and-doomer. However unwelcome our forecasts may
be pessimism, optimism, like or dislike are all irrelevant
only their accuracy counts. We correctly forecast:
and Iraq Wars would be debacles
of the housing bubble
- The Gold
- The Panic
Monetary Union crisis
of US bailout/stimulus packages to revive housing and create jobs
governments, spreading civil wars and social upheaval on a global
We also said
that the Federal Reserves sighting of economic green
shoots in March 2009 was a "mirage and predicted
that their much vaunted recovery was no more than a
temporary solution, a quick-fix to be followed by The Greatest
Depression. And now, in June 2011, with the Dow on a down
trend and the economic data increasingly pointing in the direction
of Depression, Washington and Wall Street remain in denial. The
only debate among the experts is whether or not a double
dip recession is likely.
the man on the street pummeled by falling wages, higher prices,
intractable unemployment, rising taxes and punitive austerity
measures Depression, not recession,
and certainly not prosperity, is just around the corner.
a June 8th CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, 48 percent of
Americans believe that another Great Depression is likely to occur
in the next year the highest that figure has ever reached.
The survey also indicates that just under half of the respondents
live in a household where someone has lost a job or is worried that
unemployment may hit them in the near future.
years of obvious economic hardship experienced by tens of millions
of Americans only when the suffering and pain can no longer
be cloaked in abstractions and cooked statistics does an
emboldened media dare utter the forbidden D word.
Journal readers, alerted to this emerging trend some three years
ago, the prospect of Depression should come as no surprise. Neither
should the idea that, when it hits and can no longer be denied,
a long suffering public will take to the streets.
When I made
this forecast back then it was written off by most of the major
broadcast and print media. Now, however, when one of their own,
belatedly and hesitantly, raises that possibility he is elevated
to sage status and it becomes big news. In early June, Democratic
strategist James Its the Economy, Stupid Carville,
having finally mastered the higher math of adding two plus two,
warned that decaying economic conditions heightened the risk of
As I described
it all those years ago: When people lose everything, and have
nothing left to lose, they lose it.
The wars will proliferate and civil unrest will intensify. As we
forecast, the youth-inspired revolts that first erupted in North
Africa and the Middle East are now breaking out in Europe (See Off
With Their Heads, Trends Journal, Autumn 2010)
Given the trends
in play and the people in power, economic collapse at some level
is inevitable. Governments and central banks will be unrelenting
in their determination to wring every last dollar, pound or euro
from the people through taxes while confiscating public assets (a.k.a.
privatization) in order to cover bad bets made by banks and financiers.
When the people
have been bled dry financially and have nothing left to give, blood
will flow on the streets.
Learn from history. Do you remember when it first became apparent
that the US economy was in deep trouble and heading toward the Panic
of 08? Not many will. Most people were in a summer state of
mind and in holiday mode. It was late July 2007 when the stock market
suddenly plunged from its euphoric 14,000 high.
Though we had
warned in our Summer 2007 Trends Journal (released that June)
that trends indicators point to a major crisis hitting the
financial markets between July and November, the diving Dow
was downplayed as a mere hiccup
a time to pause
between more mouthfuls of expansion.
mistake in a falling stock market
swings in the Dow are giving investors pause. But taking your
money out of the market now could be the gravest mistake of all.
This past Thursday was the second worst day of the year
for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. But remember, it was just
a week ago today that the Dow closed above 14,000 for the first
(and only) time.
Fluctuations in the market shouldn't get to the 401(k) investor.
Keep in mind your time horizon most of us are going to be invested
in the market until we retire, often decades from now. CNN 27
and trillions of dollars in stock and 401(k) losses later, that
typical take a deep breath, stay the course advice
looks tragically misguided. The Dow would eventually lose more
than half its value and now, in June 2011, its fallen below
of this story is to not let your mind take a summer vacation.
Conditions are rapidly deteriorating and it is imperative to remain
on high alert. Another violent financial episode is looming. It
may be triggered by economics (e.g., debt defaults and debt crisis
contagion in Europe, a crashing US dollar, or commodity price
spikes); it could be terror (false flag or real), a man-made disaster
(another Fukushima) or one made by Mother Nature
combination of the above.
is founder and director of The Trends Research Institute, author
2000 and Trend
Tracking (Warner Books), and publisher of The Trends
Journal. He has been forecasting trends since 1980, and recently
called The Collapse of ’09.
2011 Gerald Celente
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