The sudden implosion of the vast Iraqi Army of the Baghdad Puppet Regime constructed by the U.S. is an excellent early warning of the fates of the other U.S. puppet states in the Muslim World—Afghanistan, Egypt, Pakistan, Yemen, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, U.A.E., and lesser ones. As always, there are many differences among these puppet states, including degrees of being puppets of the U.S., but the general picture of them and their situation now are roughly similar.
The U.S. War Against Islam, which began with the annihilations of Afghanistan and Iraq roughly thirteen years ago, led to a sudden, immense, secret transformation of the Muslim World from anxious allies of the U.S. to secret enemies and led to the rapid growth of the Holy Warrior guerrilla groups and parties started earlier by Hizbollah and al-Queda because of the U.S. support of the Israeli occupation of Lebanon and Palestine and the growing hatred of the older U.S. puppets, especially Saudi Arabia. The Islamic peoples had begun secretly turning against the U.S. in the 1950′s and 1960′s as the U.S. began more and more to quietly replace the retreating European empires in the region and support pro-American puppet regimes. The U.S. CIA with U.K. help worked with corrupt Iranian forces to overthrow the Iranian democracy in 1953 and replace it with the terrorist secret police state of the Shah and Savak. As that bit of U.S. treachery and conspiracy became more and more known in Iran, Iran became the first of the revolutionary Islamic states to turn against the U.S. Other peoples learned the same hard lessons over the decades and followed in their footsteps.
Since Bush et al. declared a “World War” against the “Islamic Axis of Evil” after 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington by al-Queda, a predominantly Saudi guerrilla group enraged at the U.S. over its puppet Saudi Arabian police state, the whole Muslim World of one and a half billion people have turned overwhelmingly against the U.S. and more and more secretly support guerrilla groups against the U.S. puppet regimes oppressing them. Pakistan, a huge nuclear state with about 150 millon people quickly went from pro-U.S. to fiercely anti-U.S. over the annihilation of Afghanistan, the systematic plane and then drone attacks on Pakistanis, and all the rest.
As far as I can tell from what we can see so far in this implosion of the al-Maliki puppet regime in Iraq, this small army of fierce Holy Warriors of somewhere between a few thousand and ten thousand was able to terrify and disperse the huge army and police forces of the Iraqi state numbering nearly 100,000 in the North [out of about one million nationwide] because the Sunni majority in those areas welcomed them or went along with them and, very importantly, I expect the Sunni minority in the Shia dominated national army and police did the same. It was probably this sudden desertion of tens of thousands of Sunni soldiers and policemen who had been working with them that threw them into panicky flight.
All of these puppet regimes who have tried to build nationwide security forces in nations that are very pluralistic and divided in their populations [like Iraq which is divided into the Shia, Sunni and Kurds] face the same danger. They are normally highly infiltrated by other ethnic groups who resent the dominant puppet regimes as well as by the major guerrilla forces, since guerrillas always do this, a crucial reason the U.S. and its puppet S. Vietnamese governments lost the war in Vietnam and the puppet forces suddenly imploded when seriously attacked by guerrillas and the North Vietnamese army.
These U.S. constructed national security forces look formidable on paper and can growl fiercely as long as they are not seriously attacked by homogeneous, tight knit, fierce and effective guerrilla armies. When that happens they become paper tigers and flee, even throwing their vastly superior weapons away in terror.
Napoleon said that the moral factors of war, all the nonphysical ones, are three times more powerful than the physical. That remains true in general in our age of high tech. weapons. But there are situations such as I have been describing above in which the moral factors are vastly more important than that. These Sunni guerrillas with a little help from spies in Mosul threw a vast, modern army with vast weapon superiority into total panic by doing little more than huffing and puffing on their rams’ horns, a greater feat than Joshua’s defeat of the fortress forces of Jericho with the help of God.
These Holy Warriors overrunning Iraq have overrun almost all the Sunni areas with the help of the locals in a few days. Now they are coming up against the Holy Warrior Shia militias and probably supporting Republican Guards of Iran which are highly trained and very effective. If Moqtada al-Sadr is able to get his partially moth-balled Mahdi Army into fierce and organized fighting shape quickly, the Shia will hold their heartland from Baghdad south to Kuwait and the Persian Gulf. I argued many years ago that Moqtada is the natural leader of Iraq for many reasons, including the fact he is a holy man, not corrupt like al-Maliki, and is able and willing to work with Sunnis and Kurds. He is by far the most beloved military leader of the Shia in Iraq and he is even an old friend of the head of Hizbollah, the vastly effective Shia guerrilla army of Lebanon that has given the Syrian government a victory after looking like it was doomed.
If I were the leader of this fierce little Holy Warrior army, I would feint toward Baghdad to pin down the Shia and mislead others, but I would speed South to strike into the oil heartland of Saudi Arabia in the N.W. where the Shia hate the Saudis and the paid military forces from other countries share that hatred. I would have sent a force down from Syria through Jordan to join my invading army in Saudi Arabia. I would promise big bonuses to the paid foreign troops if they join me and then go home after we seize the wealth of the Saudi puppet tyrants. And I would be prepared to destroy the oil shipment facilities in Saudia Arabia on the Gulf instantly if the U.S. attacked us.
I think Saudi Arabia is a paper tiger and would implode. We would have realized the dream of Osama bin Laden, a Saudi Yemenite, and with the vast wealth of Saudi Arabia in our control we would rapidly build our Caliphate of loyal and fierce Sunnis to control nearly half the oil exports of the world, then build our Middle Eastern wide Caliphate of all Sunnis and live in glory the rest of my days.
If that dream conquest failed, I would lead my remaining forces back up to Iraq or through Jordan into Syria and then into northern Iraq to control that rich prize and build the Caliphate out from that more slowly.
I think it is possible they will be thinking like me and do that or something very similar.
In any event, the U.S. will for decades be reaping the whirlwind of its incompetent and insanely stupid “divide and conquer” plan in the Muslim World.
[N.B. I am not a Sunni and will not accept supreme command of that Holy Warrior army if they do ask me.]