Writes a friend:

A brief update on the Armenian-Azeri situation, with fighting in the last couple of days.  Each side blames the other for starting it (of course.)  But there are clues in the article to suggest one or the other, for example:

The escalation in fighting comes just days after Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev criticised international mediators conducting peace negotiations with Armenia, describing the process as “meaningless”. He also accused Armenia of dragging its feet in order to maintain the status quo.

Aliyev is tired of waiting for mediators, and he doesn’t like the status quo.  Yet, the status quo would be fine for Armenia, given that nothing good can come of a change in the status quo.  Also, why fight so far away from the conflict zone?  It seems clear why the Azeri’s would want a surprise attack, but what would Armenia hope to gain by a surprise attack?  Baku?  Hardly.

Erdogan has dreams of a pan-Turkism / Ottoman revival.  To his east, dividing Turk from Turk, stands Armenia.

Cui bono in starting a fight?  Not Armenia.