Writes Dan Pitrone:
Regarding Greg’s and Brad’s Spidey-Sense… A few years ago I found a document titled, “A Chronology of Defense Intelligence in the Gulf War: A Research Aid for Analysts.”
The chronology details some of the inner-workings of war preparation, including these relevant events:
April 1989 “CENTCOM assesses that Iraq will be the next likely regional threat in the wake of the Iran-Iraq War and the decline of the Soviet Union.”
August 1989 “DIA military capability analysts disseminate Iraqi invasion of Kuwait scenario to CENTCOM and other commands. CENTCOM concurs with analysis by late 1989. It becomes the scenario for CENTCOM’s Command Post Exercise (CPX), Internal Look, in July 1990.
July 1990 “DIA analysts participate in three-week-long NWC war game of an Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The war game mirrors reality as crisis approaches in Iraq and Kuwait.”
CENTCOM has their own grainy version of events leading up to war on their history page.
Fascinating that 9 years before CENTCOM considered Iraq the “next likely regional threat” Saddam sought approval from the US to invade Iran, as stated in a memo from April 11 1980: “Since the first of the year official Iraqi diplomatic contacts sought to engage the Kuwaitis to act as intermediary in obtaining United States approval and support for Iraqi military action against Iran.” The US most likely gave the green light for Iraq’s invasion of Iran in early 1980. Jack Anderson, a journalist who was the subject of an assassination plot involving a faked mugging hatched by the Nixon White House, points to February 1980 as the month Carter ordered a satellite over Iranian controlled islands whose ownership was disputed by Iraq.
There’s always more to be said but I’ll leave it at that.