Will Trump Win the Republican Nomination?

All statements made here about odds come from betting markets. In the first week of August, 2019, Trump had over a 91% chance of being re-nominated by his party to run in 2020. His current number is a 77% chance, and this has been stable since early October. The Democrat Ukraine impeachment offensive is the cause of this drop.

If Trump is nominated, he beats all Democratic nominees in match-ups between him and each of them. He beats the strongest Democrat (Warren) at 41% to her 17-21%. Trump is far and away the strongest Republican candidate for the 2020 nomination and presidency.

If the Republicans nominate someone else, and there is a 23% chance of that happening, then the odds are slightly that they’ll lose the election. Their chance of winning is 48%; the Democrats chance of winning currently is 54%. These do not add to 100% for one reason and another (like bid-ask spreads). A nominee other than Trump creates basically a toss-up election.

The betting market makes it clear that Trump is currently the winning choice for Republicans, but it’s also clear that his position in gaining the nomination has been weakened. This weakens Republicans as a whole and gives Democrats a chance of beating them if they nominate someone other than Trump.

Renegade Republicans like Romney, Never Trump Republicans and Republicans in name only all can cause their party to lose to Democrats in 2020 if they manage to prevent Trump from being nominated. Trump is right to look upon these Republicans as foes of both him and the party.

Leftist media of all kinds are going to play up divisions between Republicans and Trump in order to exacerbate them and push Republicans into dumping Trump. They will claim that he’s unelectable and carries too many negatives. They will claim that the long-run future of Republicans demands nominating someone else, anyone other than Trump.


1:05 pm on November 4, 2019